Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity—case study from Eastern Germany

Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.     

Seismotectonic regionalization of the Red Sea area and its application to seismic risk analysis

A seismological evaluation of the Red Sea margin is presented in this contribution based on the concept of seismotectonic regionalization. The geology and the tectonic structure are critically reviewed to define regions of homogeneous seismicity in the study area, and available seismicity data are implemented to estimate the seismic parameters of the region. The results of the study are applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of an offshore platform site.     

我国西南及其邻区新的强震活动幕与当前地震趋势问题

本文将我国西南及其毗邻的印度、缅甸地区１９８０年至今，估计将延续至１９９６年前后的地震活动时段，称为新的强震活动幕。据有关对比依据认为：一方面新活动幕与１９４１－１９５５年活动幕有多方面的相似性；另一方面这两幕之间又存在重要的差异性。本文在兼顾历史发展的相似性和差异性两方面特征，全面进行对比研究后，对新活动幕强震现状作了新的解释，并进而讨论了今后的地震趋势。     

Seismotectonics of the Median Tectonic Line in southwest Japan: Implications for coupling among major fault systems

The relationship between the slip activity and occurrence of historical earthquakes along the Median Tectonic Line (MTL), together with that of the fault systems extending eastward has been examined. The MTL is divided into three segments, each containing diagnostic active faults. No historical earthquakes have been recorded along the central segment, although the segment has faster Quaternary slip rates compared with the other segments that have generated historical earthquakes. This discrepancy between earthquake generation and slip rate can be explained by a microplate model of southwest Japan. The microplate model also provides spatial and temporal coupling of slip on adjacent fault systems. In the context of this model, slip on adjacent faults reduces the normal stress on the MTL. Historical data and paleoseismic evidence indicate that slip on this segment occurs without significant strong ground motion. We interpret this as indicating anomalously slow seismic slip or aseismic slip. Slip on the central segment of the MTL creates transpressional regions at the eastern and western segments where historical earthquakes were recorded. Alternatively, the earthquakes at the eastern and western segments were triggered and concentrated shear stress at the edge of the segments resulted in postseismic slip along the central segment. The sequence of historical events suggests that the MTL characteristically does not produce great earthquakes. The microplate model also provides a tectonic framework for coupling of events among the MTL, the adjacent fault systems and the Nankai trough.     

华南地区弥散地震活动的评价方法与结果

根据华南地区现今地球动力学环境、新构造特征、发震构造模型、第四纪构造活动、地球物理场等方面的差异,通过具体的实例,有针对性地论述了弥散地震区划分的方法,系统地阐述了华南地区弥散地震的评价依据.对于弥散地震区内与已知发震构造无关的最大历史地震,给出了两种情况下确定弥散地震的方法,探讨了总体地震和构造活动水平与弥散地震的关系.华南地区弥散地震活动的评价结果与地球动力学环境特征密切相关,地震构造背景的一致性是进行弥散地震类比的基础.本文除了论述弥散地震活动评价方法之外,还初步给出了华南地震区弥散地震区划分方案和弥散地震评价结果.     

张家口-蓬莱断裂带地震构造特征的初步探讨

北西向张家口－蓬莱断裂带由近２０条北西至北西西向断裂组成,是一条对新生代区域地质构造发育起到重要控制作用的地壳构造带。断裂带新生代活动由中部向西北和东南部发展,总体表现左旋走滑性质。断裂带有山西断陷盆地带等几条北东向活动构造带与之交汇,形成北西和北东向两组断裂相互交切的构造组合,出现５个复杂的构造交接段。６级以上强震和大多数中小地震群集于这些地段,其中北西和北东向断裂都可能发生地震,显示共轭破裂错动特征,但北东向断裂发生的地震强度较大。张北－尚义６．２级地震发生于断裂带与山西断陷盆地带交接段的西缘,是断裂带向西北扩展的结果     

祁连山活动地块东北部活动构造的定量研究与大地震危险性分析

祁连山中东段的范围东起宁夏固原,西至青海祁连县以西的托莱山一带.该区曾发生过1920年海原8.6级地震,1927年古浪8.0级地震,近期还发生过一系列中强地震,如1986年门源6.4级、1990年景泰—天祝6.2级、1995年永登5.8级等地震.该地区是我国构造活动和地震活动最强烈的地区之一.存在连绵不断的一系列的全新世活动断裂,其中自西向东最重要的有海原活动断裂、古浪活动断裂、老虎山活动断裂、毛毛山金强河活动断裂、冷龙岭活动断裂、托莱山活动断裂、庄浪河活动断裂、马衔山活动断裂等.前4条断裂的定量研究已在“八五”期间基本完成.在“九五”项目…     

The identification of an active fault by a multidisciplinary study at the archaeological site of Sagalassos (SW Turkey)

The archaeological site of Sagalassos (SW Turkey) is located in a region characterized by the absence of any significant recent seismic activity, contrary to adjacent regions. However, the assessment of earthquake-related damage at the site suggests that the earthquakes that have been demonstrated to have struck this Pisidian city in ca. AD 500 and in the middle or second half of the 7th century AD are characterized by an MSK intensity of at least VIII and occurred on a fault very close to the city. Different investigation techniques (archaeoseismology, remote sensing and geomorphology, surface geology and structural data, 2D resistivity imaging and palaeoseismological trenching) have been applied at the archaeological site and its direct surroundings in search for the causative fault of these earthquakes. This multidisciplinary approach shows that each of the different approaches independently provides only partial, non-conclusive information with respect to the fault identification. Integration is imperative to give a conclusive answer in the search for the causative fault. This study has, indeed, revealed the existence of a to date unknown active normal fault system passing underneath ancient Sagalassos, i.e. the Sagalassos fault. A historical coseismic surface rupture event on this fault could be identified. This event possibly corresponds to the devastating Sagalassos earthquakes of ca. AD 500 and the middle or second half of the 7th century AD. Finally, this study demonstrates that in the particular geodynamic setting of SW Turkey archaeological sites with extensive earthquake-related damage form an important tool in any attempt to asses the seismic hazard.     

Quaternary faulting in the Upper Rhine Graben revealed by high-resolution multi-channel reflection seismic

A high-resolution multichannel seismic reflection river profiling campaign was completed in July 2002 in the southern Upper Rhine graben (URG), along the River Rhine. Preliminary results show apparent Quaternary vertical slip rates, on intra-graben faults that are relatively slow, of the order of a few thousandths to a few hundredths of mm/yr. Moreover, kinematical data from the Ludwigshafen area show decreasing vertical slip rates since the Middle Pleistocene and/or a migration of tectonic activity. While still preliminary, these data show inhomogeneous and relatively slow tectonic activity in the URG that could probably not alone have shaped the Quaternary graben morphology. To cite this article: G. Bertrand et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

帕米尔地区现今大陆深俯冲——地震构造和动力学解释

在 NEIC(UsGS)1975～1999年地震记录的基础上,补充中国新疆地震台网1975年以来的16,339个部分重新定位的有效地震记录,根据该地区地震活动时空分布规律、地壳速度结构和地表变形构造等最新研究成果,对兴都库什-帕米尔-中国西部地震活动的三维几何学及其构造联系作出了新的解释,强调沿恰曼断层的左行走滑作用对帕米尔和兴都库什地震带的制约。沿帕米尔地震带正在发生大陆深俯冲作用,是恰曼断层左行牵引的结果,深俯冲岩板为上宽下窄向恰曼断层收敛的楔形体,俯冲角度上缓(20～30°)下陡(60～70°),转变深度在80～120公里,部分下地壳物质被深俯冲作用带到200公里以下的深度。帕米尔深俯冲带上盘岩石中的多期反冲构造组合和后退俯冲作用历史,解释了该地区地壳缩短加厚和深部岩石折返的机制。与深俯冲作用相关的双地震剪切带和3个地震群的构造联系,提供了大陆深俯冲作用的动力学信息。