及时开展新冠疫情防控与大规模核酸检测的卫生经济学评价

目的 对广州市于第二波新冠疫情及时开展疫情防控以及大规模核酸检测进行卫生经济学评价。方法 基于全社会角度,从相关部门及文献中收集数据,对广州市的所有常住居民构建改进SEIR模型,通过构建不同情景,分析真实世界情景及疫情防控措施分别推迟3天与7天的情景下的结果产出值,并对广州市四轮大规模核酸检测行成本效益分析。结果 真实世界情境下,本轮疫情的总经济负担约为344.02亿元人民币。与及时开展疫情防控措施相比,推迟3天开展疫情防控措施会带来1 391例累计确诊病例、43例死亡以及额外的141.91亿元人民币的经济负担。而推迟7天开展疫情防控措施会带来26 237例累计确诊病例、882例死亡以及额外的294.62亿元人民币的经济负担。四轮大规模核酸检测的净收益为221.82亿元人民币,效益成本比为24.23。结论 面对疫情时及时开展疫情防控措施能够极大地减少经济负担,且进行大规模核酸检测具有良好的经济性。     

成都市暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病关联分析及脆弱人群亚组识别

目的 刻画成都市2011—2017年暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病(Hand, foot and mouth disease,HFMD)之间的短期滞后关系,并进一步量化在不同性别、年龄亚组中的效应,识别脆弱人群。方法 收集整理成都市2011年1月1日—2017年12月31日的15岁以下HFMD日发病数、气象因子和暴雨洪涝发生情况数据。以暴雨洪涝为关键自变量,运用准泊松分布滞后模型,探讨了暴雨洪涝发生后0~14天的滞后效应。结果 研究发现暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病呈正相关关系。0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后效应分别为1.11(95% CI:1.01~1.22)和1.21 (95% CI:1.04~1.41)。性别和年龄亚组分析分别表明,男童和3岁以下儿童（<1岁婴儿和1~2岁幼儿亚组）存在单日滞后统计显著的正相关关系,且0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后均显著;女童的单日滞后没有统计学意义,仅0~14天累计滞后统计显著,且效应略低于男童（女童: RR =1.23(1.00~1.51),男童: RR =1.26(1.06~1.51)）;<1岁婴儿0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后效应最强,分别为1.26(95%CI:1.02~1.57)和1.68(95%CI:1.20~2.34)。结论 暴雨洪涝会增加儿童患HFMD的风险,尤其是男童和3岁以下的婴幼儿（对1岁以下的婴儿的影响最大）。利益相关者应充分意识到暴雨洪涝的健康风险。家庭、社区、学校和政府应共同努力,减少暴雨洪涝相关的儿童HFMD。     

How Do Dieticians on Instagram Teach? The Potential of the Kirkpatrick Model in the Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Nutritional Education in Social Media

The growing popularity of health education on social media indicates the need for its appropriate evaluation. This paper aims to present the potential of the Kirkpatrick Model (KM) with New World Kirkpatrick Model (NWKM) additions to evaluate the nutritional education provided by dieticians via Instagram. Instagram profiles of ten dieticians providing nutritional education for their followers were analyzed in March and April 2021. The study sample included profiles of both macro- and micro-influencers. The analyzed quantitative data included Instagram Engagement Rate and the number of likes and comments per post. The qualitative analysis of the comments was performed following the theoretical framework provided by the KM and NWKM. Collected data showed followers’ satisfaction, commitment, and relevance of the presented content, fulfilling the Level 1 of NWKM. Level 2 of NWKM was represented by 4 out of 5 dimensions (knowledge, attitude, confidence, commitment). No comments were found only for skills. Both Levels 3 (Behavior) and 4 (Results) of the KM were met. However, the use of the NWKM for them seems limited. The KM can be used to evaluate nutritional education on social media. The NWKM additions seem applicable mostly for Levels 1 and 2.     

不同影像技术对胰腺癌模型兔原位种植建模效果的评价与比较

目的:比较CT、MRI及超声平扫检查对胰腺癌模型兔建模效果的评价价值。方法:建立胰腺癌模型兔10只,对每只模型兔采用CT、MRI、超声平扫等影像检查,比较不同影像技术对模型兔肿瘤病灶的检出率;并对肿瘤采用磁共振波谱(MRS)分析肿瘤代谢情况。结果:建模成功3周末,死亡5只,存活5只;3种检查方式均能发现胰腺区的肿瘤病变和腹腔积液,检出率均能够达到100%。在对肿大淋巴结和血管包绕的检出中,MRI与CT的检出率相当,均优于超声平扫;在对远处转移的检出中,MRI要优于另外两种方式,但三种影像检查方法的病灶肿大淋巴结、血管包绕及远处转移等检出率比较,差异均无统计学意义(χ²=3.619,χ²=3.000,χ²=6.857;P>0.05)。MRS分析能够清晰显示胆碱(Ch)、肌酐(Cr)和N-乙酰天门冬氨酸(NAA)峰。结论:对动物肿瘤模型采用CT、MRI和超声平扫检查,可以获得较为满意的检测效果,但是在行动物实验过程中,需要根据实际的肿瘤种植位置和肿瘤转移位置采用合适的影像检查方法。     

基于Kano模型的互联网医院患者就医服务需求分析

目的调查分析互联网医院患者就医服务需求,探讨服务质量改进措施。方法自行设计基于Kano模型互联网医院患者就医服务需求调查问卷,对某院线上和线下就诊患者进行问卷调查,运用Kano分析法对服务需求进行分类,根据满意度影响力矩阵分析提出改进措施。结果诊前、诊中、诊后三个维度下的互联网医院19个服务项目中,基本属性6个,期望属性7个,魅力属性6个。影响力矩阵分析显示,1个项目归属于提升服务标准区,7个项目归属于创新服务项目区,5个项目归属于维系服务质量区,6个项目归属于提升服务质量区。结论Kano模型的科学应用,可优化互联网医院就诊流程,提高患者就医满意度和医院工作效率,助力医疗服务质量提升。     

超声彩色室壁动力学对心肌梗死范围定量的实验研究

目的验证超声彩色室壁动力学(CK)分析技术判断心肌梗死的准确性.方法结扎犬冠状动脉(冠脉)造成实验性急性心肌梗死模型,应用超声CK分析技术与病理解剖的结果进行对比性研究.结果结扎犬冠脉前超声CK图像由红-黄-绿-蓝色组成,色彩分布均匀,心内膜彩色移位(SEM)值为7.98～14.53mm结扎犬冠脉后造成实验性急性心肌梗死时超声CK图像绿-蓝色完全消失,仅遗留红-黄色,SEM值为1.27～6.45mm,与结扎前对比明显减少(P<0.05).超声CK图像检测的心肌梗死范围为(26.2±4.8)mm2,病理解剖测量为(22.5±4.7)mm2,两者对比显著相关(r=0.9264,P<0.01).结论超声CK图像有助于急性心肌梗死定性、定量诊断.     

基于中西医临床病证特点的系统性红斑狼疮动物模型研究评述

基于系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）的中西医临床病证特点,参考国内外SLE动物模型研究文献,依据临床诊断标准,对现有模型的临床符合度进行评价,经对比分析发现,自发小鼠模型中的MRL/lpr小鼠模型与诱导模型中的姥鲛烷诱导模型中西医临床病证吻合度最高。但目前SLE动物模型多按照西医病因特点建模,缺乏中医病证结合模型,中医符合度低,因此在现有研究基础上增加中医干扰因素,彰显中医辨证优势,加强SLE中医辨证相关研究是今后努力的方向。     

套索回归模型在中医临床研究数据的统计应用与R语言实践

目的：构建简洁且易于解释的模型,为同类研究提高模型预测的准确率提供参考。方法：从国家自然科学基金项目在研课题(81673904)中选取200例肺纤维化合并心力衰竭患者心力衰竭分级与其可能的相关因素,运用套索回归从患者的“性别”“年龄”“体质量指数”“收缩压”“舒张压”“血清总胆固醇”“空腹血糖”“舌质颜色”“舌苔颜色”“中医体质”等自变量中筛选特征变量,构建回归模型以探讨其与心力衰竭严重程度之间的关系。结果：剔除高维数据中的混杂因素,筛选特征变量,模型中包含6个特征变量,体质量指数=0.006 357 091,收缩压=0.219 695 622,血清总胆固醇=0.229 324 833,舌色红=0.004 216 705,苔色薄白=-0.825 660 057,苔色黄厚=0.356 499 153。肺纤维化合并心力衰竭出现严重心力衰竭的概率为P=-33.632+0.006×BMI+0.220×SBP+0.229×TC+0.004×是否红舌-0.826×是否薄白苔+0.356×是否黄厚苔。结论：得到的模型可用以解释严重心力衰竭发病的相关因素并推广到总体中进行预测。套索回归模型适用于中医临床研究的高维数据分析,可能具有推广价值。     

腰椎椎间盘退行性变动物模型建立方法的研究进展

腰痛是目前全球首位致残疾病,给患者、家庭和社会造成极大的痛苦和沉重的负担.与增龄有关的椎间盘退行性变(IDD)是腰痛的最主要原因.随着工作与生活节奏的加快,IDD 呈现年轻化的趋势.建立符合IDD 规律、成功率高、可重复性好、操作简单、成本低且适合医学研究的IDD 动物模型,对明确腰椎IDD 的发生机制及开展防治工作具有一定意义.目前的腰椎IDD 动物模型大致可分为自发模型、损伤模型和生物力学模型等,本文依据以上分类作如下综述.     

A simple scoring system to estimate perioperative mortality following liver resection for primary liver malignancy—the Hepatectomy Risk Score (HeRS)

BackgroundSelection of the optimal treatment modality for primary liver cancers remains complex, balancing patient condition, liver function, and extent of disease. In individuals with preserved liver function, liver resection remains the primary approach for treatment with curative intent but may be associated with significant mortality. The purpose of this study was to establish a simple scoring system based on Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and extent of resection to guide risk assessment for liver resections.MethodsThe 2005–2015 NSQIP database was queried for patients undergoing liver resection for primary liver malignancy. We first developed a model that incorporated the extent of resection (1 point for major hepatectomy) and a MELD-Na score category of low (MELD-Na =6, 1 point), medium (MELD-Na =7–10, 2 points) or high (MELD-Na >10, 3 points) with a score range of 1–4, called the Hepatic Resection Risk Score (HeRS). We tested the predictive value of this model on the dataset using logistic regression. We next developed an optimal multivariable model using backwards sequential selection of variables under logistic regression. We performed K-fold cross validation on both models. Receiver operating characteristics were plotted and the optimal sensitivity and specificity for each model were calculated to obtain positive and negative predictive values.ResultsA total of 4,510 patients were included. HeRS was associated with increased odds of 30-day mortality [HeRS =2: OR =3.23 (1.16–8.99), P=0.025; HeRS =3: OR =6.54 (2.39–17.90), P<0.001; HeRS =4: OR =13.69 (4.90–38.22), P<0.001]. The AUC for this model was 0.66. The AUC for the optimal multivariable model was higher at 0.76. Under K-fold cross validation, the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of these two models were similar at PPV =6.4% and NPV =97.7% for the HeRS only model and PPV =8.4% and NPV =98.1% for the optimal multivariable model.ConclusionsThe HeRS offers a simple heuristic for estimating 30-day mortality after resection of primary liver malignancy. More complicated models offer better performance but at the expense of being more difficult to integrate into clinical practice.