| 成都市暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病关联分析及脆弱人群亚组识别 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋培,钱渐,蒋晓红,刘雅琼,吕强,殷菲.成都市暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病关联分析及脆弱人群亚组识别[J].现代预防医学,2022,0(7):1170-1174. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋培 钱渐 蒋晓红 刘雅琼 吕强 殷菲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.四川大学华西公共卫生学院/四川大学华西第四医院，四川 成都 610041；2.四川省疾病预防控制中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 刻画成都市2011—2017年暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病(Hand, foot and mouth disease，HFMD)之间的短期滞后关系，并进一步量化在不同性别、年龄亚组中的效应，识别脆弱人群。方法 收集整理成都市2011年1月1日—2017年12月31日的15岁以下HFMD日发病数、气象因子和暴雨洪涝发生情况数据。以暴雨洪涝为关键自变量，运用准泊松分布滞后模型，探讨了暴雨洪涝发生后0~14天的滞后效应。结果 研究发现暴雨洪涝与儿童手足口病呈正相关关系。0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后效应分别为1.11(95% CI:1.01~1.22)和1.21 (95% CI:1.04~1.41)。性别和年龄亚组分析分别表明，男童和3岁以下儿童（<1岁婴儿和1~2岁幼儿亚组）存在单日滞后统计显著的正相关关系，且0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后均显著；女童的单日滞后没有统计学意义，仅0~14天累计滞后统计显著，且效应略低于男童（女童: RR =1.23(1.00~1.51)，男童: RR =1.26(1.06~1.51)）；<1岁婴儿0~7天和0~14天的累积滞后效应最强，分别为1.26(95%CI:1.02~1.57)和1.68(95%CI:1.20~2.34)。结论 暴雨洪涝会增加儿童患HFMD的风险，尤其是男童和3岁以下的婴幼儿（对1岁以下的婴儿的影响最大）。利益相关者应充分意识到暴雨洪涝的健康风险。家庭、社区、学校和政府应共同努力，减少暴雨洪涝相关的儿童HFMD。
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| 关 键 词： | 手足口病 暴雨洪涝 分布滞后模型 脆弱人群 |
Association between floods and childhood hand foot mouth disease and the identification of the vulnerable subgroups in Chengdu |
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| JIANG Pei,QIAN Jian,JIANG Xiao-hong,LIU Ya-qiong,LV Qiang,YIN Fei.Association between floods and childhood hand foot mouth disease and the identification of the vulnerable subgroups in Chengdu[J].Modern Preventive Medicine,2022,0(7):1170-1174. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Pei QIAN Jian JIANG Xiao-hong LIU Ya-qiong LV Qiang YIN Fei |
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| Affiliation: | * West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To portray the short-term lag association between floods and childhood hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) from 2011 to 2017 in Chengdu, and to further identify vulnerable groups by quantifying the association in different gender and age subgroups. Methods This study collected the daily incidence of HFMD under 15 years of age ,various meteorological factors and flood conditions in Chengdu from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2017, taking flood as the key independent variable, using the quasi-Poisson distribution lag model to explore the lag effect of 0-14 days after the occurrence of flood. Results The study found a statistically positive correlation between floods and childhood HFMD. The total cumulative lag effects and 95%CI of 0-7 and 0-14 days were 1.11 (1.01-1.22) and 1.21 (1.04-1.41), respectively. Gender and age subgroup analysis showed that there was a statistically significant positive correlation between floods and HFMD in single lagged days, and cumulative lag at 0-7 days and 0-14 days for boys and children aged under 3 (<1 and 1-2 years old subgroups). The floods’ single-day lag effect for girls was not statistically significant, while the cumulative lag of 0-14 days was statistically significant, and the effect was slightly lower than that of boys (girls: RR =1.23 (1.00-1.51), boys: RR =1.26 (1.06-1.51)). The cumulative lag effect for infants was the strongest (the cumulative lag effects of 0-7, 0-14 days were 1.26 (1.02-1.57) and 1.68 (1.20-2.34), respectively). Conclusion Floods can increase the risk of childhood HFMD, especially for boys and young children under 3 years old (with the greatest impact on infants aged under 1). Stakeholders should be fully aware of the health risks of floods. Families, communities, schools, and governments should work together to reduce flood-related HFMD in childhood. |
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| Keywords: | Hand foot and mouth disease Floods Distribution Lag Model Vulnerable subgroups |
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