及时开展新冠疫情防控与大规模核酸检测的卫生经济学评价

目的 对广州市于第二波新冠疫情及时开展疫情防控以及大规模核酸检测进行卫生经济学评价。方法 基于全社会角度，从相关部门及文献中收集数据，对广州市的所有常住居民构建改进SEIR模型，通过构建不同情景，分析真实世界情景及疫情防控措施分别推迟3天与7天的情景下的结果产出值，并对广州市四轮大规模核酸检测行成本效益分析。结果 真实世界情境下，本轮疫情的总经济负担约为344.02亿元人民币。与及时开展疫情防控措施相比，推迟3天开展疫情防控措施会带来1 391例累计确诊病例、43例死亡以及额外的141.91亿元人民币的经济负担。而推迟7天开展疫情防控措施会带来26 237例累计确诊病例、882例死亡以及额外的294.62亿元人民币的经济负担。四轮大规模核酸检测的净收益为221.82亿元人民币，效益成本比为24.23。结论 面对疫情时及时开展疫情防控措施能够极大地减少经济负担，且进行大规模核酸检测具有良好的经济性。

Health economics evaluation of timely prevention and control of COVID-19 and mass nucleic acid testing

Objective To evaluate the economic value of timely prevention and control of the second wave of COVID-19 in Guangzhou and mass nucleic acid testing. Methods Based on the societal perspective, related data were collected from relevant departments and literature, and a modified SEIR model was built for all resident residents in Guangzhou. Through the simulation of different scenarios, the health and cost outcome of the real-world were analyzed respectively under the real-world and 3 days and 7 days delay of prevention and control, and the cost-benefit analysis of four rounds of large-scale nucleic acid detection in Guangzhou was analyzed. Results In the real-world scenario, the total economic loss of this wave of COVID-19 was about 344.02 billion yuan. Compared with the timely implementation of prevention and control measures, delaying the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures for three days will bring 1 391 cumulative confirmed cases, 43 deaths, and an additional economic loss of 14.191 billion yuan. The 7-day delay in the implementation of prevention and control measures would bring 26 237 cumulative confirmed cases, 882 deaths, and an additional economic loss of 294.62 billion yuan. The net monetary benefit of the four rounds of large-scale nucleic acid detection is 221.82 billion yuan, and the benefit-cost ratio was 24.23. Conclusion Timely implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures can greatly reduce economic losses from COVID-19, and large-scale nucleic acid detection is cost-benefit.