Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.     

论自然中的对流与结构

本文首先从数学上划分了对流与结构,然后论述了银河系、太阳系以及地球大气、海洋和固体地球中的对流和结构。      

地形与热源强迫下的南方涛动

用El Nino和La Nina位相时的海温异常和地形作为大气下垫面的异常强迫,引入IAP的两层原始方程大气环流模式,模拟出了南方涛动的典型结构.当去掉地形后,仅仅由海温异常也能模拟出太平洋东西部的气压异常振荡,但太平洋东部振荡中心的位置并不与观测的一致.由此可见,观测到的南方涛动是在实际地形下对全球海温异常的响应.     

中国东北及邻近地区夏半年极端暖事件的时空和环流特征分析

夏半年（5—10月）是我国东北农作物生长的关键期,但偏高的气温尤其是大范围极端偏暖事件会对农业生产造成不良影响。基于强度、范围和持续时间等指标,对1980—2019年夏半年发生在我国东北及其邻近地区的16个极端暖事件进行分析。结果表明,东北及邻近地区的极端暖事件的强度和频率呈明显增加的趋势,夏初（5—6月）和秋初（9—10月）发生的暖事件频次较多。地面极端增暖事件发生时,东北区域的西北侧大陆地面低压异常和东侧西北太平洋海上高压异常导致东北地区出现异常偏南风及暖平流;对流层至平流层呈现出准正压的结构,最大位势高度异常中心多出现在250 hPa附近,其下方的正温度异常（暖气柱）会延伸到地面,有利于地面异常增温。暖事件发生时,地面增暖区位于对流层上层急流入口区的左侧,利于下沉气流出现。上述大气温压场扰动结构和环流特征通过影响短波辐射和绝热增温过程,共同导致地面极端暖事件的发生。在预报意义上,有90%以上的东北极端暖事件可以在250 hPa上至少提前10天追踪到位势高度的扰动信号。      

季风的季节、年际和年代际变化

区域季风和全球季风的分布依赖于季风的定义。基于“季风是热带大气水汽中心随越赤道气流向赤道外季节扩展”的定义总结并讨论了东亚季风的区域特征、亚洲季风的季节进程和全球季风的分布以及季风的年际和年代际变化。最后对季风研究的潜在方向作了适当的讨论。     

近34 a青藏高原年气温变化

 对高原地区34 a（1971—2004年）82站共13 883 d的逐日日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温资料进行了统计，用REOF方法进行了分区，并讨论了趋势变化，结果表明：①无论年平均气温，还是年平均最高气温和最低气温，以35°N为界的南北变化的区域特征明显。在年平均气温和年最低气温中，西藏地区的累计方差比青海地区大，年最高气温中青海地区的累计方差比西藏地区大。②青藏高原地区年温度的分布主要取决于海拔高度、地理位置和地形的影响，而年温度的标准差与高原地区年降水的分布相似,但趋势相反，标准差大的区域主要在高原的西北部和四川的西南部。③高原大部分地区年平均气温、年最高和最低气温基本上是以增温的趋势为主，高原的西北部地区年平均气温增温幅度最明显，尤其以柴达木盆地增温幅度最大，增加幅度为0.8℃·(10a)-1以上。年最高温度青海的增幅比西藏明显，而年平均最低温度西藏的增幅比青海明显。     

辽宁开原龙卷强对流过程的扰动天气环境

2019年7月3日下午辽宁部分地区出现短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气,其中开原市金钩子镇遭遇了龙卷风,造成当地严重的生命财产损失.本文重点分析有利于这次龙卷和冰雹等强对流过程发生的大气变量扰动环境,包括数值模式预报产品中的扰动天气环境以及雷达回波和卫星云图演变对应的大气扰动风场变化特征.结果发现:开原单个龙卷与苏北多次单个龙卷发生的大气温压场扰动环境相似,发生地位于对流层上部下伸到地面的位势高度扰动槽线和近地面水平方向上冷暖温度扰动气团交界线附近,其冷暖扰动气团之间的强度对比较美国多龙卷爆发时的弱小.利用来自欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式产品和美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统(NCEP/GFS)的实时分析资料进行扰动环流形势分析并与当地实况卫星云图和雷达回波相结合,可以从潜在趋势上定性地推断有利于强对流天气发展的位置.     

我国南方冬季低温雨雪冰冻事件的大气扰动信号分析

利用中国549个站点的温度和降水资料确定了1960～2008年发生在我国南方冬季的23次低温雨雪冰冻事件。对全球大气变量再分析资料做物理分解得到天气尺度扰动分量用于这些事件的早期信号分析。结果表明,在低温事件发生时,南方地区上空300 hPa对应有最大负高度扰动,850 hPa有负温度扰动。这些扰动的传播特性可以作为低温事件发生的早期信号。在低温雨雪站日数大于10的11次事件中,它们的扰动信号平均可提前11.2天追踪到。     

Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in China:1951-2005

Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, r...