Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

注册建筑师制度在中国的建立及管理统计

文章重点从政策层面比较系统地回顾了中国建设行业注册建筑师执业管理制度从建立到发展演变的过程以及注册资格国际互认方面的情况。     

Is the association between temperature and mortality modified by age, gender and socio-economic status?

Background

A number of studies have examined the relationship between high ambient temperature and mortality. Recently, concern has arisen about whether this relationship is modified by socio-demographic factors. However, data for this type of study is relatively scarce in subtropical/tropical regions where people are well accustomed to warm temperatures.

Objective

To investigate whether the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily all-cause mortality is modified by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES) in Brisbane, Australia.

Methods

We obtained daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality data for Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. A generalised additive model was fitted to assess the percentage increase in all deaths with every one degree increment above the threshold temperature. Different age, gender and SES groups were included in the model as categorical variables and their modification effects were estimated separately.

Results

A total of 53,316 non-external deaths were included during the study period. There was a clear increasing trend in the harmful effect of high temperature on mortality with age. The effect estimate among women was more than 20 times that among men. We did not find an SES effect on the percent increase associated with temperature.

Conclusions

The effects of high temperature on all deaths were modified by age and gender but not by SES in Brisbane, Australia.     

规划·规范·规则:深圳开发控制三大体系的互动关系

规划、规范和规则是建设项目审批依据的三个基本来源,三者共同构成开发控制管理制度的三大核心体系。研究结合深圳实践,阐述三大体系的特征、构成和分类,分析三者在静态条件下的优先关系和在动态条件下的互动关系,尝试揭示三大体系之间相互替代、补充、促进、转化和融合的演化规律。     

基于SMP强度准则的预应力混凝土管桩的挤土效应分析

预应力混凝土管桩在沉桩过程中,将发生挤土效应和土塞效应,二者是有机统一的。基于SMP强度准则,考虑土塞效应,分析了预应力混凝土管桩的挤土效应及土塞效应,并推导了预应力混凝土管桩的应力场及位移场的计算公式。通过实例表明,基于考虑中间主应力的SMP强度准则推导得到的预应力混凝土管桩的应力状态及位移场的计算公式,在实际工程中具有一定的现实指导意义。     

Characterization of best Chebychev approximation using the frequency response of IIR digital filters with convex stability

This paper deals with the application of Chebychevʼs approximation theory to IIR digital filter frequency response (FR) approximation. It explores the properties of the frequency response of IIR digital filters as a nonlinear complex approximating function; IIR digital filter frequency response is used to approximate a prescribed magnitude and phase responses. The approximation problem is closely related to optimization. If the set of approximating functions is non-convex, the optimization problem is difficult and may converge to a local minimum. The main results presented in the paper are proposing a convex stability domain by introducing a condition termed “sign condition” and characterization of the best approximation by the Global Kolmogorovʼs Criterion (GKC). The Global Kolmogorovʼs Criteria is shown to be also a necessary condition for the approximation problem. Finally, it is proved that the best approximation is a global minimum. The sign condition can be incorporated as a constraint in an optimization algorithm.     

Fisher判别法在房地产投资环境评价中的应用

分析了影响房地产投资环境的因素,根据Fisher判别法的一般原理对房地产投资环境进行分析。最后举例说明了如何将Fisher判别法应用于房地产投资环境的分析,体现了该方法的合理性与优越性。     

Construction and validation of a psychometric scale to measure consumers’ fears of novel food technologies: The food technology neophobia scale

Consumers’ fears of novel food technologies are documented. The ability to identify population segments that have greater or lesser neophobia, thus enabling identification of early adopters of innovative products, would be useful. The Food Neophobia Scale [FNS; Pliner, P., & Hobden, K. (1992). Development of a scale to measure the trait of food neophobia in humans. Appetite, 19, 105–120] is a useful tool for assessing reactions to ethnic foods (and sensation seeking) but less suitable for assessing receptivity to foods produced by novel technologies. Therefore, there is a need to develop a new psychometric tool that identifies food technology neophobia.In a three stage validation exercise, 81 statements (items) were reduced to 31 (n = 193) and subsequently reduced to 13 items (n = 459) by factor analysis. After a face validity check, the new 13 item Food Technology Neophobia Scale was tested (n = 295) and found to have predictive (criterion) validity (willingness to consume foods produced by novel food technologies). Furthermore, convergent validity was found between the FTNS and Trust in Science scale [TISS; Bak, H. (2001). Education and public attitudes toward science: Implications for the ‘deficit model’ of education and support for science and technology. Social Science Quarterly, 82(4), 779–793] and FNS.     

FKA算法迭代收敛性分析

《核选择和非线性特征提取的双线性分析》一文提出了一种新颖的核Fisher准则FKC, 并用迭代分析算法FKA求得最优解,但其迭代收敛性缺乏理论上的证明。从理论上对FKA算法的迭代收敛性进行了分析和探讨,并运用Radermacher复杂性分析法进行证明。     

Fisher极小准则不相关空间算法及其在人脸识别中的应用

不相关空间算法是一种基于广义Fisher准则求解不相关鉴别矢量集的快速算法,但该算法要求总体散度矩阵可逆。针对高维小样本的情况,文中提出求解不相关鉴别矢量集的改进方法。该方法的基本思路是在类间散度矩阵的值空间中运用广义Fisher极小准则求解鉴别矢量集,并讨论在该子空间中进行求解的合理性。针对高维情况下类间散度矩阵值空间的计算效率问题,提出首先利用PCA算法将数据降维,然后在低维空间中求解值空间的策略并讨论其合理性。在ORL人脸数据库上的实验验证该方法的有效性,其识别率高于传统的Fisher脸方法和不相关空间算法。