SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

Radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting liver failure

BACKGROUND Postoperative liver failure is the most severe complication in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) after major hepatectomy. Current available clinical indexes predicting postoperative residual liver function are not sufficiently accurate.AIM To determine a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for predicting liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.METHODS For this retrospective study, a radiomics-based model was developed based on preoperative hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance images in 101 patients with HCC between June 2012 and June 2018. Sixty-one radiomic features were extracted from hepatobiliary phase images and selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to construct a radiomics signature. A clinical prediction model, and radiomics-based model incorporating significant clinical indexes and radiomics signature were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The integrated radiomics-based model was presented as a radiomics nomogram. The performances of clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model for predicting post-operative liver failure were determined using receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.RESULTS Five radiomics features from hepatobiliary phase images were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model incorporating indocyanine green clearance rate at 15 min and radiomics signature showed favorable performance for predicting postoperative liver failure(area under the curve: 0.809-0.894). The radiomics-based model achieved the highest performance for predicting liver failure(area under the curve: 0.894; 95%CI: 0.823-0.964). The integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of liver failure prediction when radiomics signature was added to the clinical prediction model(integrated discrimination improvement = 0.117, P =0.002). The calibration curve and an insignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic(P = 0.841) demonstrated good calibration of the radiomics-based model. The decision curve analysis showed that patients would benefit more from a radiomics-based prediction model than from a clinical prediction model and radiomics signature alone.CONCLUSION A radiomics-based model of preoperative gadoxetic acid–enhanced MRI can be used to predict liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.     

基于中医古籍文献的升降散应用溯源及探析

通过对中医古籍中有关升降散论述的文献梳理,全面探讨其内涵。本方是在大黄、僵蚕为雏形的基础上增加蝉蜕、姜黄而成方,几经易名,终在杨璿《伤寒瘟疫条辨》中为后人所熟知。本方广泛用于治疗瘟疫,以丸剂、散剂为主,方便携带,便于服用;重用大黄旨在祛邪、逐秽;应用时视人之体质强弱和量其毒之轻重而判断用药多寡,并辅以米酒、生蜜等以顾护正气。杨璿将其由治疗“热疫”的专方扩展为治疗“表里三焦大热”的通用方剂,扩大了本方治疗疾病范围。     

甲状腺疾病患者血清 Tg-CIC 中 Tg-Ab 水平检测及相关临床研究

目的　对血清甲状腺球蛋白免疫复合物 (thyroglobulin circulating immune complex, Tg-CIC) 中抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体 (anti-thyroglobulin antibody, Tg-Ab) 含量检测，探讨 Tg-CIC 在甲状腺疾病中的临床以及流行病学意义。方法　收集甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 187 例，每例血清标本分为两组 ( 实验组和空白对照组 )，采用免疫复合物解离专利技术对甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 Tg-CIC 进行分离、解离，通过检测 Tg-CIC 解离后的 Tg-Ab 含量来间接反映甲状腺疾病患者血清中Tg-CIC 水平，按照不同的甲状腺疾病进行分组并对实验结果分析讨论。结果　不同甲状腺患者血清中 Tg-CIC 总阳性率达 92.51%，不同甲状腺疾病血清中 Tg-CIC 的阳性率差异无统计学意义 (χ?=2.917, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义 (H=3.882, P>0.05)，不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义(H=5.5842, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的 Tg-Ab 含量呈正相关 (P<0.05)，甲状腺功能减退、甲状腺肿瘤患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的Tg-Ab 含量不相关 (P>0.05)。结论　在甲状腺疾病患者血清中，大部分可检出 Tg-CIC，与疾病类型无关。而甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量与血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量存在相关性，为我们进一步了解 Tg-CIC 与甲状腺疾病的发生、发展的相关性研究奠定了基础，提供了新的研究视角。     

同轴微切口与传统小切口超声乳化术的临床疗效及术后并发症对比分析

目的　比较1.8 mm同轴微切口超声乳化术与传统同轴3.0 mm小切口超声乳化术的临床疗效及术后并发症。方法　收集2015年5月至10月北京同仁医院北京同仁眼科中心收治的老年性白内障患者48例（48眼），将患者分为微切口组和小切口组。微切口组主切口长1.8 mm，前房内注入透明质酸钠，行直径约为5.0 mm的中央连续环形撕囊，水分离后用劈核钩劈核，扭动模式超声乳化吸出术，自动灌注系统吸出残留皮质。小切口组角膜主切口大小为3.0 mm，术中植入常规折叠式人工晶状体。术后行裂隙灯、眼底镜以及角膜地形图检查，电脑验光检查患者最佳矫正视力。结果　术后1周、1个月、3个月两组患者最佳矫正视力比较，差异均无统计学意义（均为P>0.05）。术后1个月和3个月两组间手术源性散光比较，微切口组均明显低于小切口组，差异均有统计学意义（均为P<0.01）。在微切口组组内术后1个月和3个月手术源性散光无明显差异（P>0.05），微切口组手术源性散光在术后1个月保持稳定。在小切口组组内术后3个月手术源性散光明显低于术后1个月 （P<0.01）。微切口组术前角膜厚度为（567±27）μm，小切口组为（564±25）μm，两组差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）；术后1个月与3个月两组间角膜厚度变化差异亦均无统计学意义（均为P>0.05）。在随访期间两组患者均未发生后发性白内障。结论　1.8 mm同轴微切口白内障超声乳化吸出术安全可靠，术后散光恢复快，可有效减少术后角膜手术源性散光。