Egg production forecasting: Determining efficient modeling approaches

Several mathematical or statistical and artificial intelligence models were developed to compare egg production forecasts in commercial layers. Initial data for these models were collected from a comparative layer trial on commercial strains conducted at the Poultry Research Farms, Auburn University. Simulated data were produced to represent new scenarios by using means and SD of egg production of the 22 commercial strains. From the simulated data, random examples were generated for neural network training and testing for the weekly egg production prediction from wk 22 to 36. Three neural network architectures-back-propagation-3, Ward-5, and the general regression neural network-were compared for their efficiency to forecast egg production, along with other traditional models. The general regression neural network gave the best-fitting line, which almost overlapped with the commercial egg production data, with an R(2) of 0.71. The general regression neural network-predicted curve was compared with original egg production data, the average curves of white-shelled and brown-shelled strains, linear regression predictions, and the Gompertz nonlinear model. The general regression neural network was superior in all these comparisons and may be the model of choice if the initial overprediction is managed efficiently. In general, neural network models are efficient, are easy to use, require fewer data, and are practical under farm management conditions to forecast egg production.     

黑河流域出山径流模拟

国际水文科学协会已提出针对干旱半干旱区的"无资料地区的水文预测"项目。水已成为制约西北干旱半干旱区社会经济发展和生活改善的主要因素。预测全球变化和人类活动下的水循环过程和水资源变化格局是重要的。文中以黑河上游为研究区,应用IHACRES模型模拟黑河上游降水-径流过程。结果表明:IHACRES模型可以较好地模拟研究区的日出山径流量;率定期确定性系数达0.766,验证期确定性系数为0.71;确定黑河上游地区的基流指数为0.539;黑河上游经莺落峡水文站向中游输送水量为14.9亿m3,其中地表径流与基流分别占46.1%和53.9%;模型模拟受流域面积大及降雪等因素影响,使模拟精度降低;最后指出IHACRES模型适合缺乏资料地区水文模拟的研究。     

基于核磁共振成像的农产品几何模型重构

为了提高农产品数值模拟的精度,需要为其提供精确的农产品几何模型。该研究以具有不规则几何特征的农产品芒果、香蕉和苹果为试验对象,利用核磁共振成像仪获取的断层切片图像,借助于计算机图形学技术和视觉化工具函数库Visualization Toolkit5.4(VTK),实现了其几何模型的重构。结果表明,3种农产品几何模型的体积值与其真实值之间的误差均小于3%,与标准方法测得结果具有很好的一致性。该研究为农产品几何模型获取提供了一种新的方法,能为农产品数值模拟、有限元分析以及品质检测等提供直接的几何模型支持。     

高职院校数学建模教学方法探析

以高职教育的培养目标,同时结合教学实践,提出启发式教学法、案例教学法、分层教学法、等适合高职教育的教学方法,发激发高职学生学习数学建模的兴趣,并实现提高教学质量的目的。     

离心泵全流场计算域三维造型方法

建立能够准确描述所研究问题的计算域是CFD数值计算顺利进行的基础,且计算城的光顺程度还会影响网格划分的难易及网格生成的质量.借助Pro/E Wildfire 5.0三维造型软件,采用不同的造型方法对离心泵全流场计算域的各过流部件进行三维造型,且在相同的网格类型与间距情况下,对比分析不同造型方法对网格划分难易程度、生成网格的质量以及网格生成效率的影响,确定离心泵叶片、叶轮水体、蜗壳水体及腔体的最优造型方法并分析了不同造型方法出现差异的原因.     

FMDV OA/58病毒株VP3蛋白结构的模拟与分析

以口蹄疫病毒株OA／58 RNA为模板，反转录并扩增目的cDNA，然后与pMD18-T载体连接并转化JM109菌株，提取的重组质粒用凝胶电泳、PCR和BarnHⅠ、HindⅢ双酶切法鉴定。分析表明，口蹄疫病毒VP1、VP2、VP3和VP4在核苷酸水平上的变异率是无差异的（P〉0．05）；而它们在氨基酸水平上的变异率差异显著（P〈0．05）。该毒株与20株源于GenBank中的VP3氨基酸序列比较发现其保守区主要位于第1～24、26～35、37～43、45～57、61～122、124～173、175～209、211～220位。运用同源模建，OA／58 VP3蛋白三维空间结构可分为A，B，C3个结构区域。保守区氨基酸残基在维持VP3蛋白的空间构象和功能方面具有重要作用。     

弧形流道结构参数对灌水器水力性能影响的数值模拟

应用计算流体动力学CFD数值软件FLUENT6.3,模拟了滴灌灌水器弧形及弧齿形二种结构形式流道的流场水力性能。结果表明,弧形流道的消能方式主要为沿程水头损失,弧形流道灌水器的流态指数在0.7左右,而弧齿形流道中存在许多流动漩涡区,因此,其消能方式主要为局部水头损失,弧齿形灌水器的流态指数在0.5左右。通过对比分析认为:弧齿形流道水力性能优于弧形流道,可以通过结构参数优化设计,减小0流速区域,强化旋涡区,提高弧齿形灌水器的水力性能与抗堵塞能力,灌水器设计中推荐采用弧齿形流道结构形式。     

农业装备物流体系的数学建模

在分析了农业装备物流体系特点的基础上,指出了目前存在的数学模型不能完全体现和描述农业装备物流体系的特点;建立了基于面向环境时延着色Petri网(EOCTPN)的农业装备物流体系数学模型;研究了不同类型农业装备物流体系对库存总成本和长鞭效应的影响程度;解决了目前存在的无法将正向物流和逆向物流有机结合在一起的问题;有效克服了基础Petri网描述此类问题出现的"节点爆炸"现象.在仿真实验的基础上,提出了应如何构建农业装备物流体系的方法.     

Application of crop growth simulation and mathematical modeling to supply chain management in the Thai sugar industry

The poorly integrated cane supply planning between mills and cane growers in the Northeast of Thailand generates an excess of cane supplies that exceeds the mills’ capacity during the peak of harvest season. Each grower individually determines his/her cultivation plan by selecting planting dates and cultivars based on one’s own preference without taking into account the individual mill’s capacity and other growers’ plans. This situation causes most sugarcane grown in this area to reach its mature stage at the same period. In this study, we propose a framework of cultivation planning to cope with the problem. The focus of the cultivation plan is a long-term plan to determine the cultivation time, the cultivar selection and the corresponding prospective harvesting time window for each field such that overall sugar production is optimized.The crop growth model and a mathematical model are employed for yield simulation and optimization task. The crop growth model enables decision-makers to visualize cane production of each individual field at different dates with different cultivars and allow decision-makers to apply the mathematical programming to cultivation planning. The suggested framework has the potential to increase sugar production by 23% when compared to the traditional method.     

构建实例库的参数模型及其应用

通过分析系统模型和IDEFO模型,提出了实例参数模型,即将切削系统的各组成参量分成4类:非控制参量,过程参量,控制参量和输出参量并以此提出了实例库的构建过程.最后根据提出的参数模型,建立了高速切削数据库系统.