基于移动趋势面的降水面雨量分析

在分析现有面雨量计算方法及降水站点相互关系的基础上,采用移动趋势面分析法对已知站点降水进行拟合,建立区域降水三维模型。并通过某地区62个雨量站点的年降雨量进行了实例演示,通过比较已知站点实际降雨量和拟合降雨量,发现最大相对误差为8%,平均相对误差为5.1%,不仅满足实际需要,而且形象直观地反映该地区降水量变化趋势。     

中国粮食问题现状与解决对策

根据中国粮食总产量的时间序列,采用分解法,按粮食总产量随时间t的不同变化规律分解为稳定增长的趋势产量、周期波动的气象波动产量和无规律的随机扰动产量。对2000年时中国粮食总产量作了预测,分析了波动的原因和波幅的大小。进而用Delphi法与解释结构模型(ISM)建立起中国粮食问题影响因素的结构关系模型,在此基础上提出了三项具体对策。     

基于偏最小二乘回归的水稻腾发量建模

利用气象因子计算水稻腾发量过程中,各自变量之间经常存在多重相关性,从而导致传统的多元回归模型(基于最小二乘法)的失真,丧失稳健性,预测精度降低。该文采用偏最小二乘回归建模,借助主成分分析与典型相关分析的思路,采用成分提取的方法,有效地解决了各气象因子之间的多重相关性,建立了水稻腾发量模型,并对模型进行了辅助分析,得到满意效果     

Predictions of soil water and crop growth dynamics using the agroecosystem models THESEUS and OPUS

The agroecosystem models THESEUS and OPUS were tested with data obtained from three agricultural experimental field plots on sandy soils without groundwater located at the moraine landscape in East Brandenburg, Germany. At each of these plots, a separate agricultural management practice was applied. Measurements of soil water contents, pressure heads, above‐ground crop biomass, and crop yield from these three plots were compared with the corresponding simulation results of both models. The comparisons of simulated with measured outputs were analyzed using the modeling‐efficiency index IA. According to these analyses, both models simulated adequately the time courses of volumetric soil water contents and above‐ground crop biomass, but the time courses of pressure heads were predicted with a lower quality by both models. As for the pressure heads, the yields simulated with both models showed greater discrepancies in comparison with the observed ones. This indicates the need of a site‐specific parameter calibration of the crop‐growth modules, especially for that included in OPUS .     

RZWQM simulation of long-term crop production, water and nitrogen balances in Northeast Iowa

Agricultural system models are tools to represent and understand major processes and their interactions in agricultural systems. We used the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) with 26 years of data from a study near Nashua, IA to evaluate year to year crop yield, water, and N balances. The model was calibrated using data from one 0.4 ha plot and evaluated by comparing simulated values with data from 29 of the 36 plots at the same research site (six were excluded). The dataset contains measured tile flow that varied considerably from plot to plot so we calibrated total tile flow amount by adjusting a lateral hydraulic gradient term for subsurface lateral flow below tiles for each plot. Keeping all other soil and plant parameters constant, RZWQM correctly simulated year to year variations in tile flow (r² = 0.74) and N loading in tile flow (r² = 0.71). Yearly crop yield variation was simulated with less satisfaction (r² = 0.52 for corn and r² = 0.37 for soybean) although the average yields were reasonably simulated. Root mean square errors (RMSE) for simulated soil water storage, water table, and annual tile flow were 3.0, 22.1, and 5.6 cm, respectively. These values were close to the average RMSE for the measured data between replicates (3.0, 22.4, and 5.7 cm, respectively). RMSE values for simulated annual N loading and residual soil N were 16.8 and 47.0 kg N ha⁻¹, respectively, which were much higher than the average RMSE for measurements among replicates (7.8 and 38.8 kg N ha⁻¹, respectively). The high RMSE for N simulation might be caused by high simulation errors in plant N uptake. Simulated corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] yields had high RMSE (1386 and 674 kg ha⁻¹) with coefficient of variations (CV) of 0.19 and 0.25, respectively. Further improvements were needed for better simulating plant N uptake and yield, but overall, results for annual tile flow and annual N loading in tile flow were acceptable.     

50年来太湖水网地区城市化空间过程的监测与模拟 Ⅰ宜兴城区城市用地扩展的遥感监测

长期以来,由于历史数据的缺乏,很难获得解放后我国城市扩展的完整过程。本研究在遥感、地理信息系统技术支持下,采用7个时期的航空图片和卫星数据,分别对宜兴市194 9、196 6、1981、1984、1992、1996和2 0 0 0年的城区范围和耕地被占用情况进行监测。结果表明,5 0多年来宜兴城区面积从1 5km2 扩展到13 5km2 ,翻了3番多;城市扩展过程呈现两个阶段,即194 9～1984年的缓慢扩展阶段和1985～2 0 0 0年的快速扩展阶段,前一阶段年均扩展速度仅3% ,而后一阶段年均扩展速度达到2 1% ;各个时期城市扩展占用的土地中90 %以上是高质量的耕地,表明城市扩展成为耕地流失的主要因素之一。相关分析显示,城市扩展与工业发展关系最密切,工业发展为城区扩展提供了动力,而城区面积与第三产业比重的相关系数在三个产业中是最高的,表明宜兴城区成为该县第三产业的主要聚集地。从空间扩展过程来看,宜兴城区1984年以前沿着老城区零散填充式扩展,此后沿着公路快速扩展,并逐渐呈块状填充式扩展。由于宜兴处于苏南水网发达地区,水系严重制约了城市扩展的方向,而道路和桥梁建设则导引城市扩展方向     

气候变化情景下海河流域水文循环变化模拟

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition, under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.     

桂南地区杉木马尾松人工实生林多形地位指数曲线模型

利用桂南地区收集的人工实生林分标准地材料和优势解析木杉木９３株，马尾松１６２株，建立优势高生长Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓ模型。用参数预估法编制桂南地区的杉木、马尾松实生林多形地位指数表。杉木、马尾松各指数级曲线拟合平均剩余标准差分别是０．２９４３ｍ和０．２３２３ｍ；经另外６８株和５２株优势解析木检验，预报误差分别为０．４８７ｍ和０．５０６ｍ，适应性好。     

鸡白痢沙门氏菌鸡胚感染模型建立方法的筛选

为筛选出理想的鸡白痢沙门氏菌宿主感染模型的建立方法,本研究通过选择不同接种方式配合不同菌液浓度接种不同胚龄鸡胚建立感染模型,将90枚SPF鸡胚随机分成9组,每组10枚,分别为A、B、C、D、E、F、G、H、I组,A组为空白对照组,其余各组为模型组,模型组分别以气室接种、蛋壳接触接种的方式对不同胚龄（11和14胚龄）SPF鸡胚接种不同浓度（1×10³、3×10³、9×10³、3×10⁵、9×10⁵ CFU/mL）的鸡白痢沙门氏菌C79-3菌株。每天观察情况直至出雏,待雏鸡孵出后按组分笼饲养,每隔12 h观察1次,连续观察7 d,观察各组雏鸡的临床症状、死亡情况,观察期结束对死亡和存活雏鸡进行剖检、组织病理学检查及鸡白痢沙门氏菌的分离鉴定。结果显示,各模型组均有雏鸡出现明显的鸡白痢病症状并死亡,相较于其他模型组,以11胚龄蛋壳接触感染方式接种9×10⁵ CFU/mL的C79-3菌液的F组和14胚龄气室感染方式接种3×10³ CFU/mL C79-3菌液0.1 mL的H组,鸡胚出壳率较高,可分别达到80%和90%,出壳雏鸡呈现明显鸡白痢病特征,剖检可见肝脏出血、盲肠膨大、卵黄囊吸收不良;组织病理切片可观察到肝脏、盲肠、心脏各有不同程度的损伤,发病率分别100%和88.8%,并且鸡白痢沙门氏菌阳性检出率分别达70%和90%。本研究结果表明,以11胚龄蛋壳接触感染方式接种0.1 mL 9×10⁵ CFU/mL的C79-3菌液和14胚龄以气室感染方式接种0.1 mL 3×10³ CFU/mL的C79-3菌液的两种方法均可用于建立稳定的鸡白痢沙门氏菌宿主感染模型。