Stochastic model predictive control for remanufacturing system management

Uncertainties in the quality, quantity, and operational time of used products pose a challenge to the management of remanufacturing systems. In addition, it becomes a necessity to optimize the operation of the remanufacturing system to balance the quality of products, remanufacturing efficiency, and service level. In this study, a stochastic discrete-time dynamical model is proposed to represent a remanufacturing system, where the relationship between the market satisfaction, inventory status, and operational actions is explicitly modeled. This includes production and inventory planning, resource allocation and acquisition. To handle uncertainties, a stochastic model predictive control approach is proposed to plan the actions that optimize the remanufacturing efficiency. Our results in the simulation examples show that: (a) without supplies, the remanufacturing system has better stability and robustness than a conventional manufacturing system with the same initial stocks; and (b) with insufficient initial stocks, the remanufacturing system demands fewer and more gradual supplies, thereby keeping the system stable. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted for testing the performance of the remanufacturing system. By changing the operational action capacity, different state equilibria are discovered, which correspond to distinct system response characteristics. The study reveals notable managerial insights and effects of product commonality, demand patterns, and operational actions scheduling on the efficiency of the remanufacturing system.     

Global sensitivity analysis of outputs over rice-growth process in ORYZA model

Dynamic crop models usually have a complex structure and a large number of parameters. Those parameter values usually cannot be directly measured, and they vary with crop cultivars, environmental conditions and managements. Thus, parameter estimation and model calibration are always difficult issues for crop models. Therefore, the quantification of parameter sensitivity and the identification of influential parameters are very important and useful. In this work, late-season rice was simulated with meteorological data in Nanchang, China. Furthermore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of 20 selected parameters in ORYZA_V3 using the Extended FAST method. We presented the sensitivity results for four model outputs (LAI, WAGT, WST and WSO) at four development stages and the results for yield. Meanwhile, we compared the differences among the sensitivity results for the model outputs simulated in cold, normal and hot years. The uncertainty of output variables derived from parameter variation and weather conditions were also quantified. We found that the development rates, RGRLMN and FLV0.5 had strong effects on all model outputs in all conditions, and parameters WGRMX and SPGF had relative high effects on yield in cold year. Only LAI was sensitive to ASLA. Those influential parameters had unequal effects on different outputs, and they had different effects at four development stages. With the interaction effects of parameter variation and different weather conditions, the uncertainty of model outputs varied significantly. However, the weather conditions had negligible effects on the identification of influential parameters, although they had slight effects on the ranks of the parameters' sensitivity for outputs in the panicle-formation phase and the grain-filling phase, including yield at maturity. The results suggested that the influential parameters should be recalibrated in priority and fine-tuned with higher accuracy during model calibration.     

A taxonomy-based approach to shed light on the babel of mathematical models for rice simulation

For most biophysical domains, differences in model structures are seldom quantified. Here, we used a taxonomy-based approach to characterise thirteen rice models. Classification keys and binary attributes for each key were identified, and models were categorised into five clusters using a binary similarity measure and the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean. Principal component analysis was performed on model outputs at four sites. Results indicated that (i) differences in structure often resulted in similar predictions and (ii) similar structures can lead to large differences in model outputs. User subjectivity during calibration may have hidden expected relationships between model structure and behaviour. This explanation, if confirmed, highlights the need for shared protocols to reduce the degrees of freedom during calibration, and to limit, in turn, the risk that user subjectivity influences model performance.     

An integrated knowledge-based and optimization tool for the sustainable selection of wastewater treatment process concepts

The increasing demand on wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) has involved an interest in improving the alternative treatment selection process. In this study, an integrated framework including an intelligent knowledge-based system and superstructure-based optimization has been developed and applied to a real case study. Hence, a multi-criteria analysis together with mathematical models is applied to generate a ranked short-list of feasible treatments for three different scenarios. Finally, the uncertainty analysis performed allows for increasing the quality and robustness of the decisions considering variation in influent concentrations. For the case study application, the expert system identifies 5 potential process technologies and, using this input, the superstructure identifies membrane bioreactors as the optimal and robust solution under influent uncertainties and tighter effluent limits. A mutual benefit and synergy is achieved when both tools are integrated because expert knowledge and expertise are considered together with mathematical models to select the most appropriate treatment alternative.     

Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) investigates how the variation in the output of a numerical model can be attributed to variations of its input factors. SA is increasingly being used in environmental modelling for a variety of purposes, including uncertainty assessment, model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, dominant control analysis and robust decision-making. In this paper we review the SA literature with the goal of providing: (i) a comprehensive view of SA approaches also in relation to other methodologies for model identification and application; (ii) a systematic classification of the most commonly used SA methods; (iii) practical guidelines for the application of SA. The paper aims at delivering an introduction to SA for non-specialist readers, as well as practical advice with best practice examples from the literature; and at stimulating the discussion within the community of SA developers and users regarding the setting of good practices and on defining priorities for future research.     

Optimal scenario reduction framework based on distance of uncertainty distribution and output performance: II. Sequential reduction

In this paper, a novel sequential scenario reduction framework for general optimization problem is proposed. The proposed method extends the previous work (Li and Floudas, 2014) and aims to tackle optimization problems with a large number of uncertain parameters and a huge number of scenarios generated from the factorial combination. The proposed method first ranks the uncertain parameters based on their effects on the optimal objective using global sensitivity analysis. Then, the parameters are sequentially considered in generating uncertainty scenarios. This method can essentially reduce the computational efforts needed for evaluating the objective values of all scenarios, which is often impractical for a huge number of scenarios. Criteria for quantifying the quality of scenario reduction are also proposed based on robust optimization and scenario optimization. Case studies are presented to illustrate the sequential scenario reduction framework and the results verify the efficiency of the proposed approach.     

Optimisation as a process for understanding and managing river ecosystems

Optimisation can assist in the management of riverine ecosystems through the exploration of multiple alternative management strategies, and the evaluation of trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In addition, it can facilitate communication and learning about the system. However, the effectiveness of optimisation in aiding decision making for ecological management is currently limited by four major challenges: identification and quantification of ecosystem objectives; representation of ecosystems in predictive simulation models; specification of objectives and management alternatives in an optimisation framework; and evaluation of model results against actual ecological outcomes. This study evaluates previous literature in ecology, optimisation and decision science, and provides a strategy for addressing the challenges identified. It highlights the need for better recognition and analysis of assumptions in optimisation modelling as part of a process that generates and shares knowledge.     

Water density formulations and their effect on gravimetric water meter calibration and measurement uncertainties

In the gravimetric calibration method of water meters, the volume of water that has passed through the equipment under test (EUT) is generally collected into a tank and the quantity (mass) determined by weighing. The mass of water collected is then converted into a volume. This conversion of mass into volume requires knowledge of the water density, which can be estimated, measured directly or determined by other means. The error of measurement of the EUT is determined by comparing the volume recorded by the EUT and the volume collected in the tank. The density of water is, therefore, one of the major causes of measurement uncertainty in laboratory calibration of water meters using the gravimetric method. Water meter calibration facilities commonly use density formulations proposed by the International Standards Organisation (ISO) and the Organisation for International Legal Metrology (OIML). In Australia, additional guidance in water density determination is provided by the National Measurement Institute (NMI). In this study, testing was undertaken using ten positive displacement water meters arranged in series in the test rig to evaluate some of the common water density formulations used in Australia. The effect of these different formulations on the water meter error measurement was determined, as well as the effect on the measurement uncertainties. The results shows that the use of these different density formulations evaluated do not significantly affect the water meter error of measurement or the uncertainty of measurement. There was no apparent correlation between the water meter error and the meter position in the test rig. It was also determined that if the water density was adjusted only for temperature effects, a maximum of 0.05 and 0.15% drift in meter error and measurement uncertainty respectively, can be expected.     

Employing statistical model emulation as a surrogate for CFD

This work focuses on substituting a computationally expensive simulator by a cheap emulator to enable studying applications where running the simulator is prohibitively expensive. The procedure consists of two steps. In a first step, the emulator is calibrated to closely mimic the simulator response for a number of pre-defined cases. In a second step the calibrated emulator is used as surrogate for the simulator in the otherwise prohibitively expensive application. An appealing feature of the proposed framework contrary to other approaches is that the uncertainty on the emulator prediction can be determined. While the proposed framework is applicable in virtually all areas of natural sciences, we discuss the approach and evaluate its performance based on a typical example in the realm of computational wind engineering, namely the determination of the wind field in an urban area.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。