An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways

Policy goals to transition national energy systems to meet decarbonisation and security goals must contend with multiple overlapping uncertainties. These uncertainties are pervasive through the complex nature of the system, the long term consequences of decisions, and in the models and analytical approaches used. These greatly increase the challenges of informing robust decision making. Energy system studies have tended not to address uncertainty in a systematic manner, relying on simple scenario or sensitivity analysis. This paper utilises an innovative UK energy system model, ESME, which characterises multiple uncertainties via probability distributions and propagates these uncertainties to explore trade-offs in cost effective energy transition scenarios. A linked global sensitivity analysis is used to explore the uncertainties that have most impact on the transition. The analysis highlights the strong impact of uncertainty on delivering the required emission reductions, and the need for an appropriate carbon price. Biomass availability, gas prices and nuclear capital costs emerge as critical uncertainties in delivering emission reductions. Further developing this approach for policy requires an iterative process to ensure a complete understanding and representation of different uncertainties in meeting mitigation policy objectives.     

Reliability of complex chemical engineering processes

This paper presents a stochastic performance modelling approach that can be used to optimise design and operational reliability of complex chemical engineering processes. The framework can be applied to processes comprising multiple units, including the cases where closed form process performance functions are unavailable or difficult to derive from first principles, which is often the case in practice. An interface that facilitates automated two-way communication between Matlab^® and process simulation environment is used to generate large process responses. The resulting constrained optimisation problem is solved using both Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM); providing a wide range of stochastic process performance measures. Adding such capabilities to traditional deterministic process simulators provides a more informed basis for selecting optimum design factors; giving a simple way of enhancing overall process reliability and cost-efficiency. Two case study systems are considered to highlight the applicability and benefits of the approach.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of wave energy conversion device cost for policy appraisal: An Irish case study

Wave Energy Conversion (WEC) devices are at a pre-commercial stage of development with feasibility studies sensitive to uncertainties surrounding assumed input costs. This may affect decision making. This paper analyses the impact these uncertainties may have on investor, developer and policymaker decisions using an Irish case study. Calibrated to data present in the literature, a probabilistic methodology is shown to be an effective means to carry this out. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metrics are used to quantify the certainty of achieving a given cost or return on investment. We analyse the certainty of financial return provided by the proposed Irish Feed-in Tariff (FiT) policy. The influence of cost reduction through bulk discount is also discussed, with cost reduction targets for developers identified. Uncertainty is found to have a greater impact on the profitability of smaller installations and those subject to lower rates of cost reduction. This paper emphasises that a premium is required to account for cost uncertainty when setting FiT rates. By quantifying uncertainty, a means to specify an efficient premium is presented.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Linear uncertain extensions of the minimum cost consensus model based on uncertain distance and consensus utility

Uncertainty theory adopts the belief degree and uncertainty distribution to ensure good alignment with a decision-maker’s uncertain preferences, making the final decisions obtained from the consensus-reaching process closer to the actual decision-making scenarios. Under the constraints of the uncertain distance measure and consensus utility, this article explores the minimum-cost consensus model under various linear uncertainty distribution-based preferences. First, the uncertain distance is used to measure the deviation between individual opinions and the consensus through uncertainty distributions. A nonlinear analytical formula is derived to avoid the computational complexity of integral and piecewise function operations, thus reducing the calculation cost of the uncertain distance measure. The consensus utility function defined in this article characterizes the adjustment value and degree of aggregation of individual opinions. Three new consensus models are constructed based on the consensus utility and linear uncertainty distribution. The results show that, in complex group decision-making contexts, the uncertain consensus models are more flexible than traditional minimum-cost consensus models: compared with the high volatility of the adjusted opinions in traditional deterministic consensus models with crisp number-based preferences, the variation trends of both individual adjusted opinions and the collective opinion with a linear uncertainty distribution are much smoother and the fitting range is closer to reality. The introduction of the consensus utility not only reflects the relative changes of individual opinions, but also accounts for individual psychological changes during the opinion-adjustment process. Most importantly, it reduces the cost per unit of consensus utility, facilitates the determination of the optimal threshold for the consensus utility, and improves the efficiency of resource allocation.     

Solving fuzzy capacitated location routing problem using hybrid variable neighborhood search and evolutionary local search

A fuzzy capacitated location routing problem (FCLRP) is solved by using a heuristic method that combines variable neighborhood search (VNS) and evolutionary local search (ELS). Demands of the customer and travel times between customers and depots are considered as fuzzy and deterministic variables, respectively in FCLRP. Heterogeneous and homogeneous fleet sizes are performed together to reach the least multi-objective cost in a case study. The multi-objective cost consists of transportation cost, additional cost, vehicle waiting cost and delay cost. A fuzzy chance constrained programming model is added by using credibility theory. The proposed method reaches the solution by performing four stages. In the first stage, initial solutions are obtained by using a greedy heuristic method, and then VNS heuristic, which consists of seven different neighborhood structures, is performed to improve the solution quality in the second stage. In the third stage, a perturbation procedure is applied to the improved solution using ELS algorithm, and then VNS heuristic is applied again in the last stage. The combination of VNS and ELS is called VNSxELS algorithm and applied to a case study, which has fifty-seven customers and five distributing points, effectively in a reasonable time.     

全自动凯氏定氮仪测定蛋白质(以N计)不确定度分析与探讨

目的:用全自动凯氏定氮仪测定蛋白质(以N计)不确定度进行分析与探讨。方法 :采用GB 5009.5-2016第一法凯氏定氮法测定蛋白质(以N计)含量,建立数学模型,通过对各个不确定度分量的计算合成,找出影响测量不确定度的因素,最终得出样品中蛋白质(以N计)含量的扩展不确定度与合成标准不确定度。结果:蛋白质(以N计)含量测定的扩展不确定度为(20.93±0.25)%,k=2。结论:采用JJF 1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》,对不确定度进行评定,确保蛋白质(以N计)含量结果的准确性。     

Stochastic model predictive control for remanufacturing system management

Uncertainties in the quality, quantity, and operational time of used products pose a challenge to the management of remanufacturing systems. In addition, it becomes a necessity to optimize the operation of the remanufacturing system to balance the quality of products, remanufacturing efficiency, and service level. In this study, a stochastic discrete-time dynamical model is proposed to represent a remanufacturing system, where the relationship between the market satisfaction, inventory status, and operational actions is explicitly modeled. This includes production and inventory planning, resource allocation and acquisition. To handle uncertainties, a stochastic model predictive control approach is proposed to plan the actions that optimize the remanufacturing efficiency. Our results in the simulation examples show that: (a) without supplies, the remanufacturing system has better stability and robustness than a conventional manufacturing system with the same initial stocks; and (b) with insufficient initial stocks, the remanufacturing system demands fewer and more gradual supplies, thereby keeping the system stable. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted for testing the performance of the remanufacturing system. By changing the operational action capacity, different state equilibria are discovered, which correspond to distinct system response characteristics. The study reveals notable managerial insights and effects of product commonality, demand patterns, and operational actions scheduling on the efficiency of the remanufacturing system.