浅析地图集的发展与趋势

梳理了地图集的发展历史,总结了地图集的发展规律,并给出了地图集的发展趋势。     

高空大气温度变化趋势不确定性的研究进展

IPCC第4次评估报告指出：近50年来,全球对流层温度趋于升高、平流层趋于下降;同时强调了研究结果中普遍存在的不确定性,造成不确定性的主要原因是原始资料、台站选取和不同均一化方法。从理论基础入手,系统地总结了国内、外近年来高空大气温度长期变化趋势的研究成果及其不确定性产生的主要原因,详细介绍了高空大气温度序列的质量控制和均一化方法,并对我国探空台站温度序列的不确定性进行了探讨。利用静力学方法进行质量控制,以最大资料缺测率30%作为序列取舍标准,用两相回归法和再分析序列均一化处理116个中国探空站高空温度序列。研究结果表明,1958年以来我国对流层中低层趋于升温,其中1980年以后升温尤为明显;而平流层下层显示降温。      

中国1961—2016年夏季持续和非持续性极端降水的变化特征

基于国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年2400多站逐日降水观测资料,根据百分位法确定极端降水,对中国夏季持续（持续2 d及以上）和非持续性（持续1 d）极端降水事件的变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,以江淮流域为代表,中国大部分地区极端降水量趋于增多,但华北、西南及西部部分地区趋于减少;除内蒙古中部、四川等地以外,中国大部极端降水对总降水的贡献呈增多趋势。进一步对华北、江淮、华南、西南4个代表区域进行分析,发现华北、西南地区的持续和非持续性极端降水量都呈减少趋势,持续性极端降水量的减少更突出,极端降水更多以非持续性形式出现;江淮、华南一带,两类极端降水量都呈增多趋势,持续性极端降水量的增加更明显,极端降水更多以持续性形式出现。     

Conservation-induced resettlement as a driver of land cover change in India: An object-based trend analysis

Located in the foothills of the Indian Himalaya, Rajaji National Park was established to protect and enhance the habitat of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris). In 2002 the Van Gujjars, indigenous forest pastoralists, were voluntarily resettled from the Chilla Range (an administrative unit of Rajaji National Park) to Gaindikhata, a nearby area where they were granted land for agriculture. In this study we used a variety of remote sensing approaches to identify changes in land cover associated with the resettlement. The methods comprise two main approaches. First, we used object-based image analysis (OBIA) to identify the pre-resettlement land cover classes of use areas (representing agricultural expansion and adjacent areas of grazing, and collection of fuelwood and fodder) and recovery areas (representing areas where settlements were removed, and the adjacent areas of resource use). Secondly, we used trend analysis to assess the gradual and abrupt changes in vegetation that took place in use and recovery areas. To conduct the trend analysis we used BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend), which separates seasonal variation from long-term trends, and identifies breaks that can be linked back to disturbances or land cover changes. We found that the OBIA classification yielded high average class accuracies, and we were able to make class distinctions that would have been difficult to make using a traditional pixel-based approach. Pre-resettlement, the recovery areas were classified as mixed forest and riparian vegetation. In contrast, the use areas were classified primarily as grass dominated, brush dominated, and plantation forest, and were located relatively far away from riparian areas. Following the resettlement, the trend analysis showed a sudden change in the seasonal variation of NDVI in areas converted to agriculture. Areas neighboring the new agricultural land experienced sudden decreases in NDVI, suggestive of disturbances, at a higher rate than the same land cover types elsewhere. At the same time, these neighboring areas experienced a gradual overall increase in NDVI which could be caused by an expansion of leafy invasive shrubs such as Lantana camara in areas heavily used for biomass collection. The recovery areas also experienced a gradual increase in NDVI as well as sudden breaks to this trend, but we lacked evidence to connect these changes to the resettlement. Our findings support the claim that the resettlement has shifted pressure from more ecologically valuable to less ecologically valuable land cover types, and suggest that to some degree resource use pressure has increased outside the park. The study employs a novel synthesis of OBIA and trend analysis that could be applied to land change studies more broadly.     

Spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in Gansu Province, Northwest China

Drought is one of the most harmful natural hazards in Gansu Province in Northwest China. The changes of precipitation affect the severity of drought. In order to recognize the trend of precipitation and understand the effect of rainfall change on water resources management and drought severity, Mann–Kendall test was used. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to reconstruct the drought at different time scales and analyze the frequency of drought occurrence in the recent 50 years. The results show that the SPI is applicable in Gansu Province. The number of severe droughts differs among regions: it is more obvious as a 3-month drought in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin than in the Inland River Basin, and other droughts at 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales have the same effect in the three regions. Mann–Kendall test results show that there is an upward trend in the summer periods and a downward trend in the autumn-winter-spring intervals ranging from 10.5 mm/10 years to −37.4 mm/10 years, which affect the local water resources management, droughts mitigation, and agriculture decision making. This situation poses challenges for future study.     

基于AERONET和OMI数据分析中国北方典型地区气溶胶单次散射反照率的变化趋势

气溶胶单次散射反照率（SSA）表征气溶胶吸收特性,很大程度上决定了气溶胶辐射强迫的正负,对准确评估气候变化中的气溶胶辐射强迫具有重要意义。根据2004年10月至2016年12月地基AERONET（AERosol RObotic NETwork）和OMI（Ozone Monitoring Instrument）卫星数据,分析了中国北方典型地区（北京、香河、兴隆和兰州郊区）SSA的变化趋势以及两组数据的一致性。4个站AERONET和OMI 的SSA年均值分别为:北京0.89±0.04和0.90±0.04,香河0.89±0.04和0.91±0.04,兴隆0.92±0.04和0.91±0.04,兰州0.91±0.04和0.90±0.04。4个站点SSA季节变化一致,夏季高冬季低。SSA年际变化趋势分析时,因有效数据较少且为非正态分布,用月中位数代替月均值,同时需对数据进行筛选和去季节变化,结果显示北京和香河均有地基和卫星有效数据时间尺度不同的情况,而兴隆OMI和兰州AERONET满足趋势分析要求。在研究期间,4站SSA均呈上升趋势,说明近年来中国北方气溶胶的吸收性减弱,散射特性增强,尤其北京四季地基和卫星数据均呈上升趋势,但香河秋冬吸收性增强。同时,对AERONET和OMI两种反演算法得到的SSA一致性进行分析。香河结果差异较大,仅30%的数据在误差±0.03的范围内,55%在±0.05的范围内;北京分别为46%（±0.03）和68%（±0.05）,兴隆分别为50%（±0.03）和76%（±0.05）,兰州数据一致性较好,分别为51%（±0.03）和86%（±0.05）,总体来说是受人为活动影响比较明显的地区,数据一致性较差。     

陇西祖厉河流域降水插值方法的对比分析

降水作为五水转化和水量平衡的一个组成部分,在土壤-植被-大气连续体物质与能量转化中起着重要的作用,是分布式水文模型中的重要参量.本研究选择了陇西黄土高原祖厉河流域,采用5种空间插值方法,对该区域降水的时空分布规律进行研究.经分析比较,空间插值法中趋势面方法最佳.趋势面方法经统计模型调整,使得降水模拟精度有所提高.从模拟结果来看:该流域降水呈现明显的纬度地带性分布,自南向北逐渐减少;降水受地形影响较大,海拔高度每降低100 m,降水量平均减少20 mm;流域绝大地区多年平均降水量分布在280～430 mm范围内.该高时空分辨率的降水模拟模型对区域水资源分析及生态环境治理有着重要的意义.     

121 a 梅雨序列及其时变特征分析

对2001--2005年长江中下游梅雨期进行了划分。确定的梅雨参数包括梅雨集中期、梅雨长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度、入梅日期和出梅日期等。然后对1885--2005年共121a的长江中下游5站逐年的梅雨参数进行时间演变分析。从各梅雨参数趋势变化上可估计,在未来10a里,梅雨量仍将偏多,梅雨长度将偏长,入梅日期将偏早,出梅日期也将偏早。对梅雨参数进行Morlet小波分析得出,从1980s开始,入梅日期和出梅日期都出现明显的2～3a和6a的年际振荡周期;入梅日期还出现明显的12a左右的年代周期,出梅日期出现了16a左右的年代际周期。进入1990s后,梅雨长度出现了8a的年际周期,梅雨量则出现明显的4a和8a的年际周期以及一个近16a的年代际周期。     

当代地理学特征：发展趋势及中国地理学研究进展

地理学是一门研究地球表层自然要素与人文要素相互作用及其时空变化规律的科学，它广泛运用现代科学技术手段，具有跨越自然科学与社会科学的性质。面对当前全球变化和可持续发展的世界性科学问题，地理学家根据学科特点和领域优势，抓住机遇、迎接挑战。目前主要研究地球表层系统各界面间的物理、化学、生物及人文过程，探讨多种过程的相互作用机理，探求人类活动与资源环境间相互协调、可持续发展的规律。地理学以“格局—结构—过程—机理”的研究思路贯穿始终。随着新技术、新方法的使用以及观测资料的不断积累，实验测试数据质量的提高和数据量的增加，当今地理学的研究在空间尺度上同时向微观、宏观两个方向扩展，模型研究不断科学化，已具备现代科学的主要特征。总体上，表现为部门地理研究深化，区域综合研究加强。长期以来，中国地理学在自然地理的综合研究、地表自然过程研究、城市与区域发展研究，以及面向社会现实的应用基础研究等方面取得了较好进展。