Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: An overview

Separating effects of climate change (ΔQ^c) and human activity (ΔQ^h) on stream discharge at the watershed scale is needed for developing adaptive measures to climate change. However, information is scarce in existing literature regarding whether such separating is feasible and whether reliable results can be produced. The objectives of this overview were to: (1) compare currently-used methods; (2) assess assumptions and issues of the methods; and (3) present a generic framework that overcomes possible issues. Based on the overview of fifteen recent representative studies, two methods can be used to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ^c and ΔQ^h, while another method can be used to distinguish relative magnitudes of ΔQ^c versus ΔQ^h only. Because the methods’ fundamental assumptions about baseline versus altered period, water storage change and deep groundwater loss, precipitation-runoff relationship, hysteresis influence of human activity, and record of time series can seldom be satisfied for many watersheds, it is more realistic and practical to distinguish relative effects than to estimate absolute magnitudes of ΔQ^c and ΔQ^h. Moreover, a generic framework was presented for gauged watersheds with negligible groundwater loss, aiming to avoid misuse of the methods in practice.     

Historical trends affecting accumulation of sediment and phosphorus in Lake Pepin,upper Mississippi River,USA

This study was conducted to collect historical land use information that would help explain the historical patterns in accumulation of sediment and phosphorus in Lake Pepin documented by Engstrom et al. (J Paleolimnol, this issue). A wide range of historical factors including cropping systems, phosphorus applications from fertilizer and manure, human and animal populations, river flows and phosphorus discharges from waste water treatment plants were studied using statistical methods. Results showed that sediment losses from the Minnesota River basin are significantly correlated with historical increases in river flows, row crop production acreage and basin population. Total phosphorus accumulations in the sediments of Lake Pepin are significantly correlated with increased phosphorus discharges from metropolitan area wastewater treatment plants, and increases in row crop acreage and river flows. Total phosphorus inflows to Lake Pepin are significantly correlated with increases in river flows, row crop acreage and phosphorus fertilizer applied to agricultural lands. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D. R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Trend analysis using nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes. Emission of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>; Kyoto protocol in Spain

In this study, we propose a methodology to analyse the gradual secular trends present in the time evolution of certain endogenous variables, which are of particular interest in environmental research. This methodology is based on modelling such variables by nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes, the trend functions of which may be made to depend on other, exogenous, variables, which are controllable and which affect and model, in turn, the possible irregularities of such trends. The methodology is applied to analyse the evolution of the emission of CO₂ in Spain, and it is shown that the evolution of the Spanish GDP affects the trend component. These circumstances are considered in the context of Spain’s non-compliance with the Kyoto protocol on controlling the emission of greenhouse gases.     

Sediment transport trends and cross-sectional stability of a lagoonal tidal inlet on the Central Coast of Vietnam

Lagoonal tidal inlets are a typical morphology of the Central Coast of Vietnam. Recently, navigation channels in these inlets have become increasingly threatened by siltation. This study analyses the relations between sediment distribution and transport trends(using the technique of Sediment Trend Analysis-STAs) in the lagoonal system of the De Gi inlet and then proposes appropriate countermeasures against sand deposition in the navigation channel. The STA identified three types of transport trends in the De Gi inlet, namely dynamic equilibrium, net accretion, and net erosion. Processes associated with the tidal prism have resulted in trends of sediment transport and deposition across the flood and ebb tidal shoals, which maintain a present cross-sectional area of about 1000 m~2. However, longshore sediment transport from north to south resulting from northeast waves cause additional sand deposition in the channel. In addition, the effects of refraction associated with a nearby headland and jetty also increase sedimentation. These processes provide the main reasons for sediment deposition in the De Gi inlet. Short term and regular dredging helps to maintain the navigation channel. A system comprised of three jetties(north, south, and weir) is necessary to ensure the longterm cross-sectional stability of the navigation channel.     

河南省夏玉米产量预报方法

利用河南省农业气象产量预报业务系(WAPFOS)，分析了夏玉米产量与光照、降水、气温等影响因子的关系，结果表明，旬降水量、旬日照时数和旬平均气温与夏玉米产量关系密切，是直接影响产量的重要因素。在此基础上，建立了预报模型。     

黄河径流量的历史演变规律及成因

基于黄河上、中和下游的径流及气候资料，对径流的年代际变化规律及与气候变化的关系进行了分析.结果表明：黄河流域的径流均存在显著的年代际变化趋势，径流的显著特征是从20世纪80年代开始的减少趋势，但并未达到历史的最低，径流减少的趋势在下游比上游更显著，而这种变化趋势与流域的气候变化趋势基本一致，说明在年代际尺度上，径流的变化主要受气候的控制；在不同季节，这种关系有明显差异，如在冬季两者的变化趋势有较大差异.分析还发现，近年来流域地表的干化是流域径流减少的原因，气温的升高更加剧了流域地表干化.     

The Application of Wavelet Transform in Analysis of Digital Precursory Observational Data

Digital data of precursors is noted for its high accuracy. Therefore, it is important to extract the high frequency information from the low ones in the digital data of precursors and todiscriminate between the trend anomalies and the short-term anomalies. This paper presents a method to separate the high frequency information from the low ones by using the wavelet transform to analyze the digital data of precursors, and illustrates with examples the train of thoughts of discriminating the short-term anomalies from trend anomalies by using the wavelet transform, thus provide a new effective approach for extracting the short-term and trend anomalies from the digital data of precursors.     

中国气温异常的区域特征研究

用REOF法对中国的年和春、夏、秋、冬季平均气温年际变化进行了分区,并研究了各区气温的变化趋势。结果表明,中国年平均气温可分为8个变化区,春季7区,夏季9区,秋季7区,冬季5区。从年平均气温看,近46a来中国的主要升温区为东北、华北北部和新疆自治区,升温幅度为1．2℃左右。降温区为四川、贵州,幅度为0．3～0．4℃。东南部、西北东部、西藏和云南地区1970年代初以前降温,以后升温,与北半球气温变化一致。各季节升降温区与年平均有一定的差异。升温区范围和升温幅度最大的为冬季。降温主要集中在春季西部、华南地区和夏季长江流域和新疆南部。降温幅度最大的为夏季。秋冬季全国则无降温趋势。     

Trends in Cretaceous and Tertiary geomagnetic reversals

The statistical theory of modulated renewal processes is used to analyze the polarity reversal scales of Larson & Hilde (1975) and LaBreque, Kent & Cande (1977). The results suggest that the trending effect in these data may be modelled by a rate parameter with an exponential quadratic trend. Short times in one polarity state tend to be followed by short times in the other state. The graphical analysis points to the possibility of an undulating pattern in reversal rates. The empirical distributions of the normal and reversed polarities show slight differences in comparison with each other in most of the statistical tests, but a moving-window analysis indicates possible serial effects for the normal times. As a rough approximation, a statistical two-state model for reversals might be realistic, for example, an alternating renewal process under relaxed assumptions. There has been a gradual stepping-up of the minimum reversal rate from the Oligocene to the present, but little change in the observed range of the reversal rates. With the long quiet (Mercanton) interval removed from the data, the average time spent in the reversed polarity state is slightly greater than for the normal state. A change in statistical properties for the entire set of data considered as a single sample occurs around the Eocene-Oligocene transition (Middle Eocene on earlier time scales). The analyses of the statistical second-order properties of the entire sequence of 271 observations, and the subsets of normal and reversed between-times, reject a renewal hypothesis if theoretical statistical considerations are strictly applied to the results (although this hypothesis is not rejected for the Oligocene to Recent observations); this result is at variance with some geophysical models. A short appendix on the theory of point processes is provided to aid the general reader in following the arguments used in this paper.     

区域地震活动状态与地震形势——以甘肃、山西两个区域为例

以甘肃和山西２ 个区域的历史地震资料为基础,采用地震时序分析方法,研究了这２ 个区域地震活动状态与地震形势．结果表明：（１） 区域７ 级强震在不同层次上活跃与平静交替发生;（２） 中强震在７ 级强震活跃期内伴随７ 级强震发生,在７级强震平静期内或围绕６ 级地震活动或５ 级以上地震丛集发生;（３） 甘肃目前可能正处于７ 级强震平静期以及中强地震平静期内,今后一百年或数百年内发生７ 级强震的可能性不大,十几年内也可能不会发生中强地震