一种面向政府采购的多属性反向拍卖模型

为了对政府采购中电子反向拍卖系统的适用性进行改善.利用多属性决策理论和相关算法,对多属性反向拍卖的步骤和模型进行研究.对只按价格来选取供应商的方式进行了改进,建立了多属性选取供应商的反向拍卖系统.系统实现了选取供应商的自动化,能达到综合属性的最优,满足政府采购中以反拍方式进行采购的需求,提高了采购效率,降低了采购成本.     

A new method for probabilistic linguistic multi-attribute group decision making: Application to the selection of financial technologies

“No technology, no finance” has been the consensus in banking industry. Under the background of financial technology (Fintech), how to select an appropriate technology company to cooperate for the banks has become a key. The technology company selection can be regarded as a kind of multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems. The probabilistic linguistic term set (PLTS) is a useful tool to express decision makers’ (DMs’) evaluations in the technology company selection. This paper develops a new method for MAGDM with PLTSs. Firstly, the possibility degree and range value of PLTSs are defined. Then a possibility degree algorithm is designed for ranking PLTSs. An Euclidean distance measure between PLTSs is presented and extended to probabilistic linguistic matrices. Based on Archimedean t-norm and s-norm, some new operational laws for PLTSs are defined and some desirable properties are discussed. Then, a generalized probabilistic linguistic Hamacher weighted averaging (GPLHWA) operator and a generalized probabilistic linguistic Hamacher ordered weighted averaging (GPLHOWA) operator are developed. Some useful properties for these operators are investigated in detail. Combined with the subjective weights of DMs, the DMs’ weights are determined by the adjusted coefficients. Using the GPLHWA operator, the collective decision matrix is obtained by aggregating all the individual decision matrices. By maximizing the total weighted square possibility degree, a multi-objective program is constructed to derive the attribute weights. The ranking order of alternatives is generated by integrating ELECTRE and TOPSIS. Thereby, a new method is put forward for MAGDM with PLTSs. A Fintech example is analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. The sensitivity analysis and comparative analyses are conducted to illustrate its advantages.     

一种考虑等级语义关联的证据推理决策方法

现有证据推理方法以证据理论为信息融合规则,并未考虑评估等级在语义上的关联关系,导致以正交求和方式进行信息融合时出现信息流失现象。从评估等级的语义和级别出发,提出一种基于等级语义关联的证据分类融合方法。基于新的证据融合模型,构建一个基于改进证据推理方法的多属性决策框架,并给出决策模型和决策流程。最后,通过一个案例演示了新方法的决策过程,并通过比较新旧方法在案例上的应用分析了新方法的特点。     

采用不确定性因素决策法确定污水处理厂布局

随着城市的不断发展,污水处理厂的规模、承受的负荷也不断增大,对小区域污水处理厂布局方案进行优化选择已越来越重要。利用不确定性多属性决策对其进行选择,既省去了烦琐的计算步骤,又减少了决策者在决策过程中承担的风险,具有较高的实用价值。     

Emulation of Utility Functions Over a Set of Permutations: Sequencing Reliability Growth Tasks

We consider Bayesian design of experiments problems in which we maximize the prior expectation of a utility function over a set of permutations, for example, when sequencing a number of tasks to perform. When the number of tasks is large and the expected utility is expensive to compute, it may be unreasonable or infeasible to evaluate the expected utility of all permutations. We propose an approach to emulate the expected utility using a surrogate function based on a parametric probabilistic model for permutations. The surrogate function is fitted by maximizing the correlation with the expected utility over a set of training points. We propose a suitable transformation of the expected utility to improve the fit. We provide results linking the correlation between the two functions and the number of expected utility evaluations to undertake. The approach is applied to the sequencing of reliability growth tasks in the development of hardware systems, in which there are a large number of potential tasks to perform and engineers are interested in meeting a reliability target subject to minimizing costs and time. An illustrative example shows how the approach can be used and a simulation study demonstrates the performance of the approach more generally. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

区间型多属性决策的心态指标法

针对决策者偏好信息和属性值均为区间数的多属性决策问题,提出一种新的决策方法.该方法将区间型决策矩阵转化为带心态指标的决策矩阵,通过求解主、客观偏好的总绝对偏差最小与各方案综合属性值差距最大的双目标规划问题,客观地确定了属性的权重,从而给出各方案的排序结果.当决策者处于不同心态时,可以通过调整其心态指标来进行决策,因而更加符合实际.应用实例表明了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

Probabilistic linguistic vector-term set and its application in group decision making with multi-granular linguistic information

With the rapid information explosion and sharing, recommender systems (RS) play an auxiliary role in assisting the Internet users to make decision especially in the e-service platform. Normally, the information in this process is related to opinions and preferences, which are usually expressed through a qualitative way such as linguistic evaluation terms (LETs). However, the LETs may come from different sources such as experts, users, etc., which makes the linguistic evaluation scales (LESs) used in this process probably be different due to their different backgrounds and levels of knowledge. The diversity and flexibility of these LESs determine the quality of information, and further affect the effectiveness of a RS. In this paper, we focus on improving the accuracy of the multi-granular linguistic recommender system by supporting customers to find out the most eligible items according their own preferences. We first propose the probabilistic linguistic vector-term sets (PLVTSs) to promote the application of multi-granular linguistic information. Based on the PLVTSs, we then develop a novel algorithm to tackle multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems with multiple LESs. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the PLVTSs is validated by an illustration of personalized hospital selection-recommender problem. Finally, we point out some possible research directions regrading to the PLVTSs.     

犹豫模糊图及其在多属性决策中的应用*

犹豫模糊集作为定量描述犹豫不决的有效工具,通过同时处理不确定性信息中的犹豫性与模糊性,解决犹豫不决背景下的多属性决策问题.文中针对属性值为犹豫模糊数的多属性决策问题,研究基于模糊图论的相关模型与多属性决策方法.首先,提出犹豫模糊图的概念和部分常见运算规则.然后,构建基于犹豫模糊图的一般性多属性决策方法.最后,通过具体算例和对比性分析验证文中方法的合理性.     

An adaptive consensus method for multi-attribute group decision making under uncertain linguistic environment

For a multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problem, the so-called consensus reaching process is used to achieve an agreement among experts and finally make a common decision. Unfortunately, so far the consensus models for MAGDM haven’t been completely studied, especially for MAGDM under uncertain linguistic environment. The disadvantages of most existing consensus models could be summarized into 3 aspects. (1) In most existing consensus models, all the experts’ opinions are weighted equally important, and/or all the experts’ weights are treated statically. (2) Most of the interactive consensus methods are lack of effective feedback mechanism, while the automatic ones also have some defects, such as the lack of pertinence in adjustment process and the inability to reflect the subjective opinions of experts. (3) Also the comparison methods for uncertain linguistic variables therein are far from perfect, which require either complicated computing process or may cause non-distinguishable cases. In order to solve the above problems and obtain final decision results more efficiently, an interactive method with adaptive experts’ weights and explicit guidance rules for MAGDM under uncertain linguistic environment is developed. Our contributions can be summarized as follows. (1) Based on the definitions of closeness and consensus indices, a non-linear programming model is constructed to dynamically adjust the experts’ weights by maximizing the group consensus. (2) A targeted feedback mechanism including identification rules and recommendation rules is designed to guide the experts to modify their opinions more precisely and effectively. (3) A more appropriate method for comparing uncertain linguistic variables named dominance index is proposed, which can simplify the calculation process significantly. Finally, an illustrative example proves that the proposed consensus method is feasible and effective, and a detailed comparison and analysis highlights the advantages and characteristics of this method.