基于可能性测度的工程管理决策的研究

考虑可能性Kripke结构的一种扩展形式——带有成本的可能性Kripke结构,并且研究在此之上的期望测度和多属性决策问题。带有成本的可能性Kripke结构是在可能性Kripke结构的转移关系上(或者是状态上)给定了成本——这个自然数可以看成是成本,当然也可以看成是收益。在此只考虑转移关系上的成本。为了便于理解,文中给出实例,即应用带有成本的可能性Kripke结构的相关理论来解决工程管理决策的某些问题。     

A multi-criteria decision model to determine inspection intervals of condition monitoring based on delay time analysis

In periodic monitoring, the main problem is determining the inspection interval of condition monitoring. For this problem, the decision variable is represented by the time of next inspection of condition monitoring. There are several studies that deal with prescribing inspection intervals. But only a few of these allow the decision maker to observe simultaneously more than one aspect. This does not accord with the natural tendency of the decision maker who desires to see the decision problem from a broader perspective, by having different viewpoints or dimensions of choices. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to propose a decision model, which can simultaneously determine inspection intervals for condition monitoring regarding the failure behavior of equipment to be inspected, features of maintainability and decision maker preferences about cost and downtime.     

犹豫模糊图及其在多属性决策中的应用*

犹豫模糊集作为定量描述犹豫不决的有效工具,通过同时处理不确定性信息中的犹豫性与模糊性,解决犹豫不决背景下的多属性决策问题.文中针对属性值为犹豫模糊数的多属性决策问题,研究基于模糊图论的相关模型与多属性决策方法.首先,提出犹豫模糊图的概念和部分常见运算规则.然后,构建基于犹豫模糊图的一般性多属性决策方法.最后,通过具体算例和对比性分析验证文中方法的合理性.     

基于Tapestry的网格信息服务模型

提出了一个基于Tapestry的GIS模型。该模型对Tapestry中的代理路由算法进行了改进,提出了对范围查询、动态属性的更新和基于多属性的联合查询3个问题的解决方案。实验证明基于Tapestry的GIS模型具有很好的自组织性、容错性、扩展性,并能很好地实现范围查询、动态属性的更新和基于多属性的联合查询。最后指出了该模型还有待继续研究的问题。     

Model-based space planning for temporary structures using simulation-based multi-objective programming

Construction trades need to share temporary structures to increase the output of direct work while controlling the labor input of indirect work. The purpose of this research is to develop a framework to determine the optimal location of temporary structures in a computerized practical manner for piping construction projects. Based on the spatial relationship between work envelope and scaffolding placement requirements, this paper presents the optimization model in two phases: the simulation-based optimization model and a multi-attribute utility (MAU) based alternative selection model. A multi-objective optimization model is established to improve scaffolding availability among multiple activities while maximizing piping crew productivity. The multi-attribute utility model is employed to handle the uncertainty of the assessment weights on the attributes to illustrate the preference of decision makers among different scaffolding placement alternatives obtained from the first phase. The approach was validated in a piping module, which provided superintendents and space planners with an effective decision-making tool among possible scaffolding alternatives in piping construction. The proposed optimization technique is an alternative methodology for solving the productivity-tasks-scaffolding trade-off problem, which further revolutionizes the spatial coordination process of workspace management and temporary structure planning.     

Aggregating decision information into Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy numbers for heterogeneous multi-attribute group decision making

The aim of this paper is to propose a new aggregation method to solve heterogeneous MAGDM problem which involves real numbers, interval numbers, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs), trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TrFNs), linguistic values and Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (AIFNs). Firstly, motivated by the relative closeness of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), we propose a new general method for aggregating crisp values, TFNs, TrFNs and linguistic values into AIFNs. Thus all the group decision matrices for each alternative which involves heterogeneous information are transformed into an Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix which only contains AIFNs. To determine the attribute weights, a multiple objective Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy programming model is constructed and solved by converting it into a linear program. Subsequently, comparison analyses demonstrate that the proposed aggregated technology can overcome the drawbacks of existing methods. An example about cloud computing service evaluation is given to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

A cloud based health insurance plan recommendation system: A user centered approach

The recent concept of “Health Insurance Marketplace” introduced to facilitate the purchase of health insurance by comparing different insurance plans in terms of price, coverage benefits, and quality designates a key role to the health insurance providers. Currently, the web based tools available to search for health insurance plans are deficient in offering personalized recommendations based on the coverage benefits and cost. Therefore, anticipating the users’ needs we propose a cloud based framework that offers personalized recommendations about the health insurance plans. We use the Multi-attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to help users compare different health insurance plans based on coverage and cost criteria, such as: (a) premium, (b) co-pay, (c) deductibles, (d) co-insurance, and (e) maximum benefit offered by a plan. To overcome the issues arising possibly due to the heterogeneous data formats and different plan representations across the providers, we present a standardized representation for the health insurance plans. The plan information of each of the providers is retrieved using the Data as a Service (DaaS). The framework is implemented as Software as a Service (SaaS) to offer customized recommendations by applying a ranking technique for the identified plans according to the user specified criteria.     

A decision support system for the technical sustainability assessment of water distribution systems

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the technical sustainability assessment of water distribution systems (WDSs). The technical sustainability is assessed based on the sustainability index methodology using reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability as performance criteria. These performance criteria are visualized by the DSS combining several visualization techniques to improve the raw data readability and the effectiveness of the decision-making process. The technical sustainability of the existing WDS is assessed using the sustainability index methodology and two alternative scenarios are proposed to improve the sustainability. The “new pump” scenario is based on adding network components. The second scenario is based on using reclaimed water for non-potable water demand and fire flow. The results show that the DSS is effective to illustrate time-dependent variables in the WDS and that the sustainability index methodology is a credible approach to compare scenarios and to identify problematic locations.     

A multi-attribute decision model for setting production planning parameters

Production and inventory-related decisions, which significantly influence each other and sometimes involve multiple attributes, trade-off assessment and uncertainties, serve a key role in the performance of make-to-stock (mts) manufacturing systems that are controlled by a constant work in process (conwip) order release policy. To benefit from established production planning methods, a crucial task in this context is to define suitable production parameter settings for a given planning horizon. To address this problem, we present a multi-attribute decision model to determine appropriate settings for the planning parameters, namely, cycle time, throughput rate, holding cost and stockout cost. The proposed model uses discrete event simulation to evaluate the performance of a conwip/mts manufacturing system in relation to the work in process and finished goods inventory. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and a Kruskal-Wallis test are conducted to verify the significant effect on the analyzed parameters. The compromise solution that is recommended for the conwip/mts problem is obtained by considering a multi-attribute expected utility function that is representative of a decision maker’s preferences and risk attitude regarding the probability distribution of the simulation outputs. In contrast with preview studies on planning parameter setting, the result compensates the low performance of one of the attributes as a result of the high performance of another attribute, based on the axiomatic structure of MAUT.Based on the real data of a multi-product assembly line, a numerical application is employed to visualize the steps of this decision model and to demonstrate its usefulness in practical issues.     

A rough set-based interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy conceptual design decision approach with considering diverse customer preference distribution

Conceptual design evaluation plays a crucial role in new product development (NPD) and determines the quality of downstream design activities. Currently, most existing methods focus on fuzzy quantitative the evaluation information of multi-objectives in conceptual schemes selection. However, the above process ignores the various customers' preferences for each scheme under the evaluation objective, causing inconsistent preference weights in the various schemes, which cannot guarantee the market value of the optimal scheme. Furthermore, the ambiguous attitude from experts in the early design stage is not well taken into account. To this end, a conceptual scheme decision model with considering diverse customer preference distribution based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) is proposed. The model is divided into three parts. Firstly, the initial decision matrix of multi-experts concerning the qualitative and quantitative design attributes is constructed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets, and then the IFS decision matrix with interval boundaries is formed by using rough set technology. Secondly, the mapping model of design attribute to customer preference is constructed, and then the demand preference strategy implied by design attribute is judged. Thirdly, based on the demand preference strategy, the preferences’ weights for each scheme are calculated. Next, integrating the evaluation data with the same preference in the scheme, the comprehensive satisfaction of the scheme is obtained through IVIFS weighted aggregation operator, and then the optimal scheme is decided. Eventually, a case study of mobile phone form feature schemes is further employed to verify the proposed decision model, and results are sensitivity analyzed and compared.