Simulation of paleoclimate over East Asia at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP by a regional climate model

Using a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2), East Asian monsoon climates at 6 ka BP and 21 ka BP are simulated by prescribing vegetation and employing paleovegetation respectively in order to examine land surface effects on East Asian climate system and the potential mechanisms for climate change. The RegCM2 with a 120 × 120 km² resolution has simulated the enlargement of the seasonal cycle of insolation, the temperature rising the whole year, and the reduction of perpetual snow in high latitudes at 6 ka BP. The simulation shows the East Asian summer monsoon strengthening, precipitation and P–E increasing, and the monsoon rain belt shifting westwards and northwards. Effect of paleovegetation included in the modeling reduced surface albedo and caused an increase in the winter temperature, which led to weakening of the winter continental cold anticyclone over China. The results make the seasonal characteristics of simulated temperature changes in better agreement with the geological records, and are an improvement over previous simulations of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The RegCM2 simulated the 21 ka BP climate with lowered temperature throughout the year, and with precipitation reduced in most areas of East Asia (but increased in both the Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia). Low temperature over East Asia led to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon and the shrinking of the summer monsoon. The effect of paleovegetation included in the experiment has enlarged the glacial climate influence in East Asia, which is closer to geological data than the PMIP simulations directly driven by insolation, glaciation and low CO₂ concentration.     

黄土高原260万年以来东亚夏季风演变信号研究

在研究黄土高原东亚季风地质时期周期演变中,引入了用于定量检测周期的奇异谱分析方法,结合小波分析,对典型的黄土高原陕西省洛川黄土剖面、甘肃省灵台黄土剖面的磁化率中2.6 MaB.P.以来东亚季风的强信号进行了研究。结果表明:2.6-1.0 MaB.P.之间地质时期,除在1.87-1.37 MaB.P.之间可能存在一个周期演变不明显的缺失时段外,东亚季风演变的主导周期是40 ka,0.9-0.6 MaB.P.是40 ka周期和100 ka周期的调整过渡期。0.6 MaB.P.以来的主导周期是100ka。研究还发现,1.2 MaB.P.前后没有明显的周期差异,说明1.2 MaB.P.不是一次真正意义上的周期转型事件,而是周期演变过程中的触发事件,这一触发事件对0.9 MaB.P.以后出现的周期转型事件影响深刻。40 ka周期从1.2 MaB.P.开始衰减,至0.9MaB.P.时100 ka周期逐渐建立。0.6 MaB.P.开始东亚季风出现冷暖大幅振荡的100 ka演变周期,因而0.6MaB.P.具有气候振荡加剧的突变性质。     

Fluctuations of the Semi-Arid Zone in China, and Consequences for Society

Herein, we calculate an aridity index, D, based on annual precipitation, P, and measured evaporation, PET, from φ20 evaporation pans: D = P/PET. The data were collected between 1951 and 1999 at 295 meteorological stations operated by the Chinese Meteorological Administration. On the basis of the index, three climatic regions are recognized in China: an arid zone in which D ≤ 0.20, a semi-arid zone with 0.20 < D ≤ 0.50, and a humid zone in which D > 0.50. Temporal fluctuations of the climate boundaries are substantial, and differ significantly regionally, and have the shifting features in the same direction in some areas and in opposite directions in others over the past 50 years. The semiarid zone lies along the border of the monsoon, and is thus highly susceptible to environmental change in China. In the period from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, the climate became drier in most parts of the regions of northern China. Moreover, the drought has an increasing trend. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the alternation from drier to wetter climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the fluctuations in climate boundaries are the East Asian summer monsoon, the Indian Monsoon, the plateau monsoon in Tibetan Plateau, the westerly circulation, and the West Pacific Subtropical High. The different types of circulation and the strength of these circulations result in regional and temporal differences in aridity. Inter-decadal variations of the dry- and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon, Indian Monsoon, plateau monsoon, westerly circulation, and West Pacific Subtropical High. The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the cause of the remarkable change in arid and humid climate in China. Major natural disasters produced by arid and humid change are drought and flood disasters. They cause enormous economic losses to agriculture and industry. Furthermore, the loss has a substantial increasing trend. More than 110 cities are in severe water-deficiency conditions because of shortage of water resource in China. Drought has been a limiting factor of economic and social development in China.     

Large signals of climatic variation over the ocean in the asian monsoon region

The aim of this paper is to identify and delineate large signals of climatic variation in the Asian monsoon region and try to understand the nature of transformation from one climate regime to another.It is found that the summer monsoon over the Indian and western Pacific oceans stows distinct climatic regimes with changes occurring in the years around 1875, 1900, 1940 and 1960. The change of about 1900 is the largest one, which occurs in step with the variation of global oceanic climate pointed out by Fletcher, et al. (1982).The main characteristics of the transformation from one regime to another is an alternation of meridio-nality of monsoon current. The transformation occurs most strongly in the western Pacific convergence zone, where monsoon has strong interaction with the trade wind systems.The variability of monsoon rainfall over India and East China also exhibits some large signals which are synchronous with those of wind field over the ocean: the monsoon rainfall increases (decreases) during the “meridional monsoon period” (zonal monsoon period) over the ocean.It should be noted that the apparent decreasing of plum rains in East China since 1958 which is well known in China would be linked mainly with the sudden increasing of U-component of SW monsoon over the South China Sea.Finally a kind of seesaw between Indian monsoon and East China monsoon with somewhat time-lag is discussed.     

The southwest Indian Monsoon over the last 18 000 years

Previously published results suggest that the strength of the SW Indian Monsoon can vary significantly on century- to millenium time scales, an observation that has important implications for assessments of future climate and hydrologic change over densely populated portions of Asia. We present new, well-dated, multi-proxy records of past monsoon variation from three separate Arabian Sea sediment cores that span the last glacial maximum to late-Holocene. To a large extent, these records confirm earlier published suggestions that the monsoon strengthened in a series of abrupt events over the last deglaciation. However, our data provide a somewhat refined picture of when these events took place, and suggest the primacy of two abrupt increases in monsoon intensity, one between 13 and 12.5 ka, and the other between 10 and 9.5 ka. This conclusion is supported by the comparisons between our new marine data and published paleoclimatic records throughout the African-Asian monsoon region. The comparison of data sets further supports the assertion that maximum monsoon intensity lagged peak insolation forcing by about 3000 years, and extended from about 9.5 to 5.5 ka. The episodes of rapid monsoon intensification coincided with major shifts in North Atlantic-European surface temperatures and ice-sheet extent. This coincidence, coupled with new climate model experiments, suggests that the large land-sea thermal gradient needed to drive strong monsoons developed only after glacial conditions upstream of, and on, the Tibetan Plateau receded (cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, European ice-sheets, and extensive Asian snow cover). It is likely that abrupt changes in seasonal soil hydrology were as important to past monsoon forcing as were abrupt snow-related changes in regional albedo. Our analysis suggests that the monsoon responded more linearly to insolation forcing after the disappearance of glacial boundary conditions, decreasing gradually after about 6 ka. Our data also support the possibility that significant century-scale decreases in monsoon intensity took place during the early to mid-Holocene period of enhanced monsoon strength, further highlighting the need to understand paleomonsoon dynamics before accurate assessments of future monsoon strength can be made.     

Regional moisture source changes inferred from late holocene stable isotope records

Qinghai Lake, China, is located near the northern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and thus is an ideal region for studies of past monsoonal changes. However, isotope records from this region reflect the combined effects of multiple climatic factors, and make climatic interpretations difficult. The authors use multi-proxy records, generated from the same sediment core from Qinghai Lake, to disentangle these multiple effects in isotope records and to infer EASM variability during the late Holocene. Records of leaf wax （C2s） δD, lake carbonate 5180 and the Dunde ice core δ18O all indicate a millennial-scale depletion of mean isotopic values at -1500-1250 years before present. Compared with independent lake temperature and salinity records, the authors suggest that this depletion of long-term mean isotopic values must have resulted from changes in moisture sources in this region. In contrast, the authors attribute high-frequency （centennial timescale） C2s δD and ice core δ18O variability dominantly to a temperature effect. The multiproxy records provide a coherent picture in that many aspects of this regional climate （temperature, dryness, and moisture source） are strongly linked to the EASM variability.     

The sensitivity of numerical simulation of the east asian monsoon to different cumulus parameterization schemes

In this paper, a 5-level spectral AGCM is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated East Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to cumulus parameterization schemes. From the simulated results of East Asian monsoon circulations and rainfalls during the summers of 1987 and 1995, it is shown that the Kuo’s convective parameterization scheme is more suitable for the numerical simulation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation. This may be due to that the cumulus in the rainfall system is not strong in the East Asian monsoon region. This paper is supported by the National Key Progranmme “96-908”.     

关于中国重大气候灾害与东亚气候系统之间关系的研究

在总结中国国旱涝等重大气候灾害的种类、时空分布特征及其形成机理研究的基础上,分析东亚气候系统对东亚地区水分循环和中国旱涝等重大气候灾害发生的影响;并且,从东亚气候系统各成员,特别是从大气圈中的东亚季风、西太平洋副热带高压、中纬度扰动,海洋圈中的ENSO循环、热带西太平洋暖池和印度洋的热力状态,以及从青藏高原的动力、热力作用、高原积雪等来分析和讨论中国重大气候灾害的形成机理.此外,还结合1998年夏季长江流域的特大洪涝以及从20世纪70年代末迄今华北地区的持续干旱所发生的具体实际,进一步分析了东亚气候系统异     

Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon by Using an Improved AGCM

The IAP 2-L AGCM is modified by introducing a set of climatological surface albedo data into the model for substituting the model’s original surface albedo parameterization. The comparison between the observations and the simulation results by the modified model shows that the general features of the East Asian summer monsoon can be well reproduced by the modified IAP 2-L AGCM. Especially for the simulation of monsoon precipitation, the modi-fied model can well reproduce not only the monthly mean features of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia, but also the stepwise advance and retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon rainbelt. Analysis results demonstrate that the good simulation of the monsoon rainfall is closely related to the reasonable simulation of the large scale gen-eral circulation over East Asian region, such as the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian monsoon low and the low level flows. The good performance of the modified model in the rainfall simulation shows its great potential to serve as a useful tool for the prediction of summer drought / flood events over East Asia.     

Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a quantitative reconstruction from pollen data

 Annual precipitation, July and January temperatures were reconstructed from a continuous Holocene pollen sequence from the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using the best modern analogues method. The reconstructions show a clear difference between the early and late Holocene: from ∼10 ka to ∼6.5 ka the climate was drier and warmer than during the period since 6.5 ka. The average value of annual precipitation was ∼870 mm until 6.5 ka, then rose to ∼940 mm. Between 10 ka and 6.5 ka January and July temperatures were about 4 °C higher than the present. Both temperatures show a marked decrease between 7 ka and 6 ka. After 6.5 ka July and January temperatures fluctuated between 21 and 23 °C, and 2.5 and 5 °C respectively. January temperatures show a period of intermediate values (∼3.5 °C) between 4 ka and 5.5 ka. The reconstructed climate values generally match palaeolimnological data from the same core, which show five intervals of low lake level during the Holocene. They are also consistent with regional-scale COHMAP simulated palaeoclimate that shows contrasting patterns of rainfall variation between the northwesternmost part of Africa and the intertropical band. Received: 7 July 1997 / Accepted: 28 May 1998     

TBO的原因－异常东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互作用

基于对 ＮＣＥＰ／ ＮＣＡＲ再分析资料以及其他资料（ＯＬＲ，降水和气温等）的分析研究，结果表明东亚和西北太平洋地区的对流层环流和气候变化都有明显的准两年振荡（ＴＢＯ）特征。同时，异常东亚冬季风可以影响次年夏季的大气环流和气候变化，特别是在东亚地区；而异常东亚冬季风和ＥＮＳＯ循环间又有明显相互作用：持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过海─气相互作用可以激发 Ｅｌ Ｎｉ　ｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉ　ａ）， Ｅｌ Ｎｉ　ｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉ　ａ）反过来又可通过遥相关或遥响应而导致东亚冬季风偏弱（强）。强或弱的冬季风和ＥＮＳＯ循环是相互衔接在一起的，因此可以认为异常东亚冬季风与ＥＮＳＯ循环的相互作用是ＴＢＯ对流层准两年振荡）的基本原因。     

大样本初始化十年际预测试验（CESM-DPLE）对东亚夏季气候预测的评估

基于气温和降水观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）大气再分析资料,系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验（CESM-DPLE）对1959—2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候以及相关主要大气环流系统的基本态特征,在年际尺度上对东亚气温有很高的预测技巧但对降水几乎没有预测能力。CESM-DPLE再现了北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）经由激发遥相关波列所引起的中高纬度大气环流、东亚夏季风和气候的异常。20世纪90年代末之后,北大西洋多年代际振荡由冷位相转为暖位相,遥相关波列位相调整,东亚受异常低压控制,东亚夏季风偏强,夏季气温偏高、降水偏多。总体上,尽管还存在着不足,但CESM-DPLE对东亚夏季温度年际变化以及与20世纪90年代末北大西洋多年代际振荡位相转变相联的东亚夏季气候年代际变化具备一定的预测能力,是目前研究和预测东亚气候变化的一套较好试验数据。      

Paleoclimate modeling in China: A review

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the20 th century warming over China. There is a considerable model–data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present(ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum(21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3(30–40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.     

论东亚夏季风的特征、驱动力与年代际变化

本文是以新的资料和研究结果对东亚夏季风的基本特征、驱动力和年代际变化所作的重新分析与评估。内容包括四个部分:（1）东亚夏季风的基本特征;（2）东亚夏季风的驱动力;（3）东亚夏季风的年代际变率与原因;（4）东亚夏季风与全球季风的关系。结果表明:东亚夏季风是亚洲夏季风的一个重要有机部分,主要由来源于热带的季风气流组成,并随季节由南向北呈阶段性推进,它是形成夏季东亚天气与气候的主要环流和降水系统。驱动夏季风的主要强迫有三部分:外部强迫、耦合强迫与内部变率,其中人类活动引起的外强迫（气候变暖、城市化、气溶胶增加等）是新出现的外强迫,它正不断改变着东亚夏季风的特征与演变趋势。海洋与陆面耦合强迫作为自然因子是引起东亚夏季风年际和年代际变化的主要原因,其中太平洋年代尺度振荡（PDO）与北大西洋多年代尺度振荡（AMO）的协同作用是造成东亚夏季风30~40年周期振荡的主要原因。1960年代以后,东亚夏季风经历了强—弱—强的年代际变化,相应的中国东部夏季降水型出现了“北多南少”向“南涝北旱”以及“北方渐增”的转变。最近的研究表明,上述东亚夏季风年代际变化与整个亚非夏季风系统的变化趋势是一致的。在本世纪主要受气候变暖的影响,夏季风雨带将持续北移,中国北方和西部地区出现持续性多雨的格局。最后本文指出,亚非夏季风系统相比于其他区域季风系统更适合全球季风的概念。     

Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO

Summary The authors examine relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon and the ENSO, particularly on the interdecadal timescales. Based on the analyses of SLP data from 1899 to 1997, the East-Asian winter monsoon index (WMI) is defined as the zonal difference of SLP between ∼120° E and ∼160° E. It is found that 18 out of 28 strong winter monsoon years are either before the development of an El Ni?o or during the decaying La Ni?a event, 12 out of 28 weak winter monsoon are before the development of a La Ni?a or during the decaying El Ni?o event. There is a significant positive correlation coefficient value of about 0.49 between the normalized 11-yr running mean of WMI and ENSO index, however, the WMI-ENSO relationship is not consistently highly correlated. The temporal evolution of correlation between WMI and ENSO indices in both 11-yr and 21-yr moving window shows that the WMI-ENSO relationship clearly undergo low-frequency oscillation. Obviously, both observational and IPSL air-sea coupled modeling WMI index has a near-decadal peak with PDO timescales and internal peaks with ENSO timescales by applying the Multitaper method. Moreover, the cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of WMI/ENSO indicate that there is a larger significant sections with an in phase behavior between WMI and ENSO at period of 20–30 yrs, suggesting that the interdecadal variation of the WMI-ENSO relationship might exist.     

不同类型ENSO对东亚季风的影响和机理研究进展

近十几年来有关热带太平洋存在不同类型的增暖型的研究成为热点课题,其中主要依据海温的空间形态将厄尔尼诺与南方涛动（ENSO）分为两类:一类为传统的东太平洋型ENSO,另一类为中太平洋型ENSO。该两类ENSO的形成机制、演变过程均有不同,产生的气候影响也有差异。本文简要回顾了国内外有关不同类型ENSO及其气候影响的研究进展,特别综述了近年来关于两类ENSO事件对东亚夏季风、东亚冬季风以及东亚冬夏季风关联的影响和机理方面的主要研究进展。文中侧重讨论了年际和年代际时间尺度上ENSO事件对东亚季风的影响,并提出了今后在该领域一些需要进一步研究的科学问题。     

东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流

文中从夏季东亚热带、副热带环流系统特点出发 ,定义了能较好表征东亚夏季风环流年际变化的特征指数 ,并分析了东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流及夏季中国东部降水的关系。文中定义的东亚夏季风指数既反映了夏季东亚大气环流风场的变化特征 ,也较好地反映了夏季中国东部降水的年际变化特征。此外 ,还探讨了东亚夏季风指数变化的先兆信号     

East Asian summer monsoon simulation by a 20-km mesh AGCM

East Asian summer monsoon climate simulated by a global 20-km mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the global sea surface temperature during the period 1979–1998 is investigated. In comparison with a lower resolution (180-km mesh) model experiment, it is revealed that the 20-km mesh AGCM shows the superiority in simulating orographic rainfall not only its location but also its amount. The Baiu frontal structure is also better simulated in the higher resolution model, which leads to stronger Baiu rainfall. The 20-km model also shows more intense extremes in precipitation. Interannual variability of June–August mean precipitation and seasonal march of the monsoon rain band are also investigated. This paper is a contribution to the AMIP-CMIP Diagnostic Sub-project on General Circulation Model Simulation of the East Asian Climate, coordinated by W.-C. Wang.     

2011年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响

本文基于实时和历史观测资料,利用气候统计和气候机理诊断方法,对2011年气候异常及成因进行总结分析。结果表明,全球海洋外源强迫和大气内部动力过程共同作用下的大气环流系统组合异常,是造成2011年中国大部地区降水异常偏少,温度明显偏高,呈现暖干型气候特征的主要原因。具体表现为,拉尼娜事件在2011年夏季短暂中断后,9月再次进入拉尼娜状态;西太平洋副热带高压在5月之前异常偏弱、偏东,致使长江中下游出现严重春旱,之后副热带高压有所加强,尤其在6月异常偏强,使长江中下游地区梅雨量偏多、旱涝急转;秋季副热带高压脊线偏北、中高纬度冷空气活动阶段性活跃,致使华西、黄淮地区秋雨异常偏多;热带印度洋海温演变经历负偶极型海温模态后,夏季转为全区一致型暖海温;2010／2011年东亚冬季风偏强,2011年南海夏季风爆发偏早、结束偏晚,东亚夏季风正常偏弱;西北太平洋和南海热带气旋生成数量处于偏少的年代际时段,2011年热带气旋生成数量偏少。