4种评分系统对肝硬化合并感染患者预后的评估价值

目的探讨Child-Turcotte-Pugh评分(CTP)、终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分、慢性肝衰竭-器官衰竭评分(CLIF-SOFA)以及亚太肝病学会慢加急性肝衰竭研究工作组评分(AARC)评价终末期肝病(ESLD)合并感染的预后价值。方法回顾性分析2014年1月-2017年12月苏州大学附属第一医院收治的肝硬化合并感染患者的临床资料,根据住院期间预后情况将患者分为内科综合治疗病情稳定者(A组)和住院期间治疗无效死亡、自动出院放弃治疗、内科治疗无效行肝移植者(B组)。比较2组患者一般资料,住院期间临床指标最差值,CTP评分、MELD评分、CLIF-SOFA评分、AARC评分、器官替代治疗(包括机械通气、人工肝支持系统、肾脏替代治疗等)。计量资料2组间比较采用t检验或Mann-Whitney U检验;计数资料2组间比较采用χ2检验。将单因素分析中差异有统计学意义的变量进行logistic回归分析;利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析4种评分系统预测患者预后效能。结果最终纳入522例肝硬化合并感染患者,存活381例,死亡141例,病死率为27. 01%。单因素分析显示PLT、TBil、动脉血乳酸、国际标准化比值、CTP评分、MELD评分、CLIF-SOFA评分、AARC评分以及人工肝支持、连续肾脏替代治疗、机械通气的患者比例在2组间差异均有统计学意义(P值均0. 05),多因素logistic回归分析显示4种评分系统均有较强的预测价值,CTP评分[比值比(OR)=2. 308,95%可信区间(95%CI):0. 640~0. 796,P=0. 016]、MELD评分(OR=0. 632,95%CI:0. 638~0. 814,P=0. 007)、CLIF-SOFA评分(OR=1. 920,95%CI:0. 788~0. 908,P=0. 017)和AARC评分(OR=0. 713,95%CI:0. 751~0. 882,P=0. 005)是肝硬化合并感染患者预后的独立危险因素。ROC曲线分析显示4种评分均能预测ESLD合并感染患者的预后,其中CLIF-SOFA评分的预测效能最强,ROC曲线下面积为0. 848,敏感度为0. 854,特异度为0. 690。结论 CTP评分、MELD评分、CLIF-SOFA评分及AARC评分均能预测肝硬化合并感染患者预后,对抗感染治疗有指导作用,其中CLIF-SOFA评分具有较高的预测价值,可广泛应用于临床。     

ABIC评分对HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期生存情况的预测价值

背景:慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)是我国肝衰竭最主要的类型。尽管ACLF患者的预后预测已有较多模型,但各有其局限性,需进一步探索更精准的预后模型。目的:评价年龄-胆红素-INR-肌酐(ABIC)评分判断HBV相关ACLF(HBV-ACLF)患者28 d死亡的预测价值。方法:回顾性收集2013年10月—2018年10月西安市第三医院和河南煤业化工集团鹤煤总医院收治的289例HBV-ACLF患者的临床资料,按入院28 d生存情况分为生存组(n=193)和死亡组(n=96),分析ABIC评分和其他常用预后模型预测28 d死亡的价值。根据ROC曲线确定的ABIC评分cut-off值将患者重新分组,比较两组短期生存情况。结果:生存组各预后模型评分均显著低于死亡组(P 0. 05)。Cox比例风险模型多因素分析显示,入院时存在肝硬化(RR=1. 562)、高血尿素氮(RR=1. 048)、高CLIFSOFA评分(RR=1. 380)、高ABIC评分(RR=1. 317)、高MELD评分(RR=1. 094)和高i MELD评分(RR=1. 275)是患者28 d死亡的独立危险因素。ROC曲线分析显示ABIC评分对28 d死亡的预测效能优于其他预后模型(AUC=0. 784)。Kaplan-Meier生存分析显示,按ABIC评分cut-off值9. 43重新分组,评分9. 43组的短期生存情况显著优于评分≥9. 43组(P 0. 05)。结论:ABIC评分对HBV-ACLF患者的28 d死亡有一定预测价值,评分≥9. 43的患者有较高的短期死亡风险。     

比较不同评分模型对酒精相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期预后的评估

目的比较年龄、胆红素、INR、肌酸肝(age,bilirubin,INR,creatinine,ABIC),Maddrey's判别式函数(discriminant function,MDF),终末期肝病模型(model for endstage liver disease,MELD),慢性肝衰竭-序贯器官衰竭(chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment,CLIF-SOFA)评分,Child-Turcotte-Pugh(C T P)五种评分系统对酒精相关慢加急性肝衰竭(acute-on-chronic liver failure,ACLF)患者短期预后的预测价值.方法本研究回顾性收集并分析了从2005-08/2017-06在天津市第三中心医院住院的肝衰竭患者462例,并根据诊断标准和排除标准,最终纳入酒精相关的ACLF患者152例.其中入院时仅符合亚太肝脏研究学会标准而不符合欧洲肝脏研究学会-慢性肝衰竭(European Association for the Study of the LiverChronic Liver Failure,EASL-CLIF)标准的归为A组,符合EASL-CLIF标准的归为B组,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC)下面积(area under the curve,AUC)分别评估五种评分系统对两组患者28 d预后的预测价值.结果 A、B两组患者28 d死亡率分别为19%和50%,差异有统计学意义(P=0.002).在A组患者中,CLIFSOFA评分预测2 8 d死亡率的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)最大为0.889,随后依次为MELD(0.761)、MDF(0.738)、A B I C(0.718)和CTP(0.671),CTP与其他四种评分模型相比有统计学差异.B组患者中,CLI FSOFA评分预测28 d死亡率的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)最大为0.916,随后依次为MELD(0.804)、MDF(0.770)、ABIC(0.729)和CTP(0.647),CLIFSOFA与其他四种评分模型相比以及CTP和其他4种评分模型相比均有统计学差异.结论五种评分系统均能预测A、B两组患者短期预后.但无论A组和B组,CLIF-SOFA评分对28 d死亡率的预测能力均优于其他评分系统.     

酒精性肝病治疗进展

酒精性肝病是影响人们健康的常见肝病之一。积极预防、合理治疗可以有效地控制病情进展。过量酒精摄入是导致人体疾患的主要原因,重症酒精性肝病的治疗为该病治疗的重点和热点。 Child-Pugh分级、Maddrey判别函数、MELD模型、GAHS评分、年龄-胆红素-INR-肌酐（ABIC）评分及Lille评分可较好地预测预后,评判疗效。肝移植仍为终末期酒精性肝病的主要治疗手段。     

简化MELD评分可准确区分乙型肝炎相关肝硬化急性失代偿患者为不同短期预后群体

背景:对肝硬化急性失代偿(AD)患者而言,在入院初期准确进行预后判断具有重要临床意义。CLIF-C OF、MELD、MELD-Na评分为较好的短期预后预测模型,但评分方法复杂在一定程度上限制了它们的使用。目的:提出更简单、客观的简化MELD评分系统,以期准确预测乙型肝炎相关肝硬化AD患者的短期预后。方法:回顾性连续纳入2005年1月—2010年12月上海仁济医院住院乙型肝炎相关肝硬化AD患者共890例,收集患者临床数据和预后信息。计算入院当天简化MELD评分(含总胆红素、国际标准化比值、肌酐三项指标),根据评分及其对应的28 d死亡率进行预后分群。以Kaplan-Meier生存曲线比较各群体1年累积生存率,以ROC曲线分析各预后模型预测28 d死亡的预测效能。结果:根据入院当天简化MELD评分可将乙型肝炎相关肝硬化AD患者分为低、中、高28 d死亡率和不同中长期预后群体,三组对应评分分别为0~2分、3分和4~6分,28 d死亡率分别为5.5%、19.8%和48.6%。简化MELD评分预测28 d死亡的预测效能与CLIF-C OF、MELD、MELD-Na评分无明显差异,ROC曲线下面积分别为0.828、0.831、0.828和0.830。结论:简化MELD评分可准确地在入院当天将乙型肝炎相关肝硬化AD患者区分为低、中、高28 d死亡率群体,评分方法简单,便于临床应用。     

基于倾向性评分匹配分析门静脉血栓对肝硬化患者预后的影响

目的分析门静脉血栓(PVT)对肝硬化患者短期预后的影响并探讨肝硬化患者预后的危险因素。方法回顾性分析西南医科大学附属医院2018年9月—2020年3月的肝硬化住院患者临床资料,其中合并PVT患者58例为PVT组,随机选取同期无PVT患者116例为非PVT组,通过1∶1倾向性评分匹配(PSM)均衡组间协变量获取PVT组及非PVT组各44例。满足正态性计量资料2组间比较采用t检验,非正态性计量资料2组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U秩和检验;计数资料2组间比较采用χ~2检验和Fisher确切概率法。利用Kaplan-Meier法及log-rank法分析PSM前后2组患者的生存情况及出血情况,并使用Cox风险模型分析PSM前后影响肝硬化患者预后的危险因素。结果 PSM前非PVT组患者总体生存率明显高于PVT组(P=0.008),而PSM后2组患者总体生存率无明显差异(P=0.076)。PSM前非PVT组上消化道出血或再出血率明显低于PVT组(P 0.001),PSM后结果与PSM前一致(P=0.028)。PSM前肝硬化患者预后多因素分析显示,PVT(HR=2.944, 95%CI:1.364～6.441,P=0.007)和MELD评分≥15(HR=3.531,95%CI:1.630～7.650,P=0.001)是肝硬化患者短期死亡的危险因素。PSM后肝硬化患者预后多因素分析显示,MELD评分≥15是肝硬化患者短期死亡的危险因素(HR=3.312, 95%CI:1.049～10.457,P=0.041)。结论肝硬化合并PVT增加上消化道出血或再出血风险,但其不是肝硬化患者短期死亡的独立危险因素,MELD评分≥15是肝硬化患者短期死亡的独立危险因素。     

MELD评分联合血小板/白细胞比值对HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后的预测价值

目的探讨终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分系统联合血小板/白细胞比值(PWR)在预测HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)短期预后中的价值。方法回顾性分析2014年6月—2019年6月苏州大学附属第一医院收治的123例HBVACLF患者的临床资料,根据其入院后90 d的预后分为生存组(n=53)和死亡组(n=70)。记录患者的年龄、性别及入院24 h内患者TBil、ALT、AST、GGT、ALP、SCr、Alb、前白蛋白(PAB)、INR、WBC、淋巴细胞计数(LY)、单核细胞计数(MO)、中性粒细胞计数(NE)、Hb、PLT,并计算PWR和MELD评分。计量资料2组间比较采用t检验或Mann-WhitneyU检验,单因素及多因素二元logistic回归分析各因素与HBV-ACLF预后的关系,并建立MELD评分联合PWR的预测模型。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线),并计算约登指数、临界值、敏感度、特异度,比较单独MELD评分和MELD评分联合PWR的ROC曲线下面积(AUC),比较两者评价HBV-ACLF患者预后的价值。结果两组患者TBil、ALT、SCr、INR、WBC、MO、NE、Hb、PLT、PWR和MELD评分比较差异均有统计学意义(P值均0.05)。单因素分析显示,TBil、SCr、INR、WBC、MO、NE、MELD评分对HBV-ACLF患者的预后有影响(P值均0.05)。多因素分析显示,PWR(OR=0.883,95%CI:0.798～0.977,P=0.016)和MELD评分(OR=1.442,95%CI:1.225～1.698,P0.001)为HBV-ACLF患者预后的独立影响因素。MELD评分联合PWR(AUC=0.895,95%CI:0.827～0.943)对HBV-ACLF患者预后的预测能力高于单独MELD评分(AUC=0.842,95%CI:0.765～0.902),差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。结论 MELD评分联合PWR可以提高MELD评分预测HBV-ACLF患者预后的预测效能。     

终末期肝病模型及Child-Pugh分级对肝硬化患者的短期预后分析

评价终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分、Child-Pugh(CTP)及包含血肌酐值的CTP(CrCTP)分级对肝硬化患者的短期预后的意义.分别计算104例肝硬化患者的MELD、CTP及CrCTP分值,运用ROC曲线及曲线下面积(AUC)比较MELD评分、CTP及CrCTP分级判断肝硬化患者3个月生存率的准确性.在判断患者3个月生存率的ROC曲线AUC比较中,MELD评分＞CrCTP分级＞CTP分级(P＜0.05).提示在CTP中引入血肌酐值可以提高CTP分级对肝硬化患者短期预后的判断准确性;MELD评分在判断肝硬化患者的短期预后方面优于CTP及CrCTP.     

肝硬化合并急性上消化道出血的预后评分系统对比

目的对比现行的肝硬化合并急性上消化道出血的预后评分系统。方法回顾性分析2019年1~12月西安交通大学第一附属医院因肝硬化上消化道出血住院的患者资料,对比Child-Pugh评分、CAGIB评分、MELD评分及NLR评分系统的曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)。结果共有328例肝硬化伴急性消化道出血的连续病例纳入分析。57例(17.4%)患者合并肝癌。在整体包含了328例患者的队列中,Child-Pugh评分、CAGIB评分、MELD评分及NLR评分的AUC值分别为0.836(95%CI:0.791~0.875)、0.827(95%CI:0.781~0.867)、0.764(95%CI:0.714~0.809)、0.687(95%CI:0.633~0.737)。其中,Child-Pugh与NLR之间差异有统计学意义(P=0.037)。在剔除肝癌的271例患者队列中,Child-Pugh评分、CAGIB评分、MELD评分及NLR评分的AUC值分别为0.840(95%CI:0.790~0.882)、0.728(95%CI:0.671~0.781)、0.742(95%CI:0.685~0.794)、0.726(95%CI:0.668~0.779)。结论相比于NLR评分系统,Child-Pugh评分、CAGIB评分、MELD评分对于肝硬化急性上消化道出血的院内死亡的预后评估具有更好的价值,Child-Pugh评分的预后价值最高。     

HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期预后预测模型的建立与评价

目的探讨HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者短期(12周)生存预后的预测因素,建立新型预测模型。方法收集2015年4月-2018年8月在安徽医科大学附属省立医院确诊HBV-ACLF的67例患者的临床资料,根据确诊后12周随访生存情况分为生存组(n=28)和死亡组(n=39)。收集患者临床资料,包括性别、年龄、TBil、国际标准化比值(INR)、肌酐(Cr)、血清钠、PLT、ALT、AST、Alb、血清胱抑素C(CysC),是否有急性肾损伤(AKI)。正态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用t检验,偏态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用Wilcoxon秩和检验;计数资料组间比较采用χ2检验;影响HBV-ACLF患者预后因素采用多因素logistic回归法并建立预测模型;采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评价预测模型,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)的比较采用DeLong法。结果死亡组患者的年龄、TBil、INR、CysC、MELD评分均高于生存组,合并AKI患者的近期生存率明显低于无AKI者(P值均<0.05)。TBil[比值比(OR)=1.013,95%可信区间(95%CI):1.003~1.024,P=0.014]、INR(OR=6.857,95%CI:1.449~32.449,P=0.015)、CysC(OR=2.826,95%CI:1.001~7.983,P=0.050)、PLT(OR=0.982,95%CI:0.964~1.000,P=0.048)是HBV-ACLF患者短期生存的独立影响因素。TBil、INR、CysC和PLT联合建立TICP模型,TICP模型的AUC(95%CI)为0.879(0.776~0.946),MELD评分的AUC(95%CI)为0.760(0.644~0.859),两者比较有差异统计学意义(Z=2.708,P=0.007)。TICP预测HBVACLF患者短期生存情况的准确度(87.05%vs 67.16%)、敏感度(84.62%vs 56.41%)、约登指数(0.70 vs 0.42)均优于MELD评分。结论TBil、INR、CysC、PLT是HBV-ACLF患者短期预后的独立影响因素,四者联合建立的TICP预测模型对患者短期生存预后具有良好的预测价值。     

Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

AIMTo assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting short-term mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.METHODSWe retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na.RESULTSOf 264 patients, 32 (12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86 (0.81-0.90), 0.89 (0.84-0.92), 0.79 (0.74-0.84), 0.78 (0.72-0.83), 0.81 (0.76-0.86), 0.83 (0.78-0.88), and 0.83 (0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.CONCLUSIONCLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.     

HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期预后的影响因素分析

目的分析探究影响HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)短期预后的危险因素。方法收集2009年1月—2019年12月西安交通大学第二附属医院收治的240例非肝移植HBV-ACLF患者的临床资料,按照入院后28 d和90 d存活情况进行分组(28 d:生存组164例,死亡组76例;90 d:生存组140例,死亡组100例)。收集患者发病诱因、肝功能指标、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分和出现的并发症等资料。计量资料用2组间比较采用Mann-Whithey U检验,计数资料2组间比较采用χ^2检验。根据ROC曲线,计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC),采用约登指数确定临界值,HBV-ACLF短期预后的危险因素分析采用logistic多因素回归分析。结果HBV-ACLF患者的诱因主要包括HBV自发激活(55.6%)、核苷类似物停药或耐药引起HBV激活(25.2%)等。依28 d存活情况分组,基线资料中年龄、PTA、NLR、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分、TBil水平2组间比较差异均有统计学意义(Z值分别为-2.400、-6.015、-5.070、-5.103、-5.044、-7.430、-6.637,P值均<0.05);依90 d生存情况分组,基线资料中年龄、PTA、NLR、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分、TBil、胆固醇水平2组间比较差异均有统计学意义(Z值分别为-2.205、-7.728、-3.335、-4.015、-6.053、-7.908、-6.655、-3.607,P值均<0.05)。logistic多因素回归分析显示,TBil>260.20 mmol/L、PTA<24.8%、NLR>5.63、血钠<130.8 mmol/L、MELD>17.84分、MELD-Na>25.1分是影响患者28 d生存的独立危险因素[OR(95%CI)分别为4.572(1.321~15.823)、8.934(3.026~26.374)、2.632(1.126~6.152)、27.467(6.113~123.423)、4.303(1.048~17.663)、3.453(1.614~7.387),P值均<0.05];TBil>260.20 mmol/L、PTA<25.5%、血钠<135.3 mmol/L、MELD>17.84分、MELD-Na>25.1分是影响患者90 d生存的独立危险因素[OR(95%CI)分别为5.148(1.918~13.822)、15.718(5.161~47.866)、10.080(3.244~31.323)、11.157(2.580~48.254)、4.391(2.057~9.372),P值均<0.05]。240例患者中160例(66.7%)90 d内发生感染,其中细菌感染140例、病毒感染12例,真菌感染8例。160例出现感染的患者其90 d病死率显著高于无感染的患者(46.3%vs 32.5%,χ^2=6.720,P=0.010)。240例患者中176例28 d内出现腹水,44例出现胸腔积液,36例发生急性肾损伤,60例发生肝性脑病,12例发生消化道出血,2组间急性肾损伤、Ⅲ~Ⅳ度肝性脑病、消化道出血所占比例比较差异均有统计学意义(χ^2值分别为64.088、29.811、7.797,P值均<0.05)。结论HBV-ACLF患者基线TBil、PTA、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分是影响患者28 d和90 d预后的独立危险因素。HBV激活引起的肝脏炎症坏死是ACLF的始动因素,而感染、急性肾损伤、肝性脑病和消化道出血是影响患者预后的主要的并发症。     

Alcoholic hepatitis: Prognosis and treatment

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a type of acute-on-chronic liver failure and is the most severe form of alcoholic liver disease. AH occurs in patients with heavy alcohol abuse and underlying liver disease. In its severe form, AH carries a poor short-term prognosis. Although the existence of AH can be strongly suspected based on clinical and biochemical criteria, a definitive diagnosis requires a liver biopsy. There is a clear need to develop non-invasive markers for these patients. The prognosis of patients with AH can be established by different score systems (Maddrey's DF, ABIC, MELD and Glasgow). Recently, a histological scoring system able to estimate prognosis has been developed (Alcoholic Hepatitis Histological Score – AHHS). The management of patients with AH has changed little in the last few decades. In patients with severe form of AH, prednisolone and pentoxifylline are the first line therapy. Unfortunately, many patients do not respond and novel targeted therapies are urgently needed. Current research is aimed at identifying the main disease drivers and to develop animal models of true AH. For non-responders to medical therapy, the only curative option is to perform a salvage liver transplantation. This particular indication of liver transplantation is currently under debate and prospective studies should evaluate the specific patient evaluation and selection criteria.     

Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment is better than the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of Liver criteria for defining acute-on-chronic liver failure and predicting outcome

AIM: To compare the utility of the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) and Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of Liver (APASL) definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with ACLF.METHODS: Consecutive patients of cirrhosis with acute decompensation were prospectively included. They were grouped into ACLF and no ACLF groups as per CLIF-SOFA and APASL criteria. Patients were followed up for 3 mo from inclusion or mortality whichever was earlier. Mortality at 28-d and 90-d was compared between no ACLF and ACLF groups as per both criteria. Mortality was also compared between different grades of ACLF as per CLIF-SOFA criteria. Prognostic scores like CLIF-SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-II, Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were evaluated for their ability to predict 28-d mortality using area under receiver operating curves (AUROC).RESULTS: Of 50 patients, 38 had ACLF as per CLIF-SOFA and 19 as per APASL criteria. Males (86%) were predominant, alcoholic liver disease (68%) was the most common etiology of cirrhosis, sepsis (66%) was the most common cause of acute decompensation while infection (66%) was the most common precipitant of acute decompensation. The 28-d mortality in no ACLF and ACLF groups was 8.3% and 47.4% (P = 0.018) as per CLIF-SOFA and 39% and 37% (P = 0.895) as per APASL criteria. The 28-d mortality in patients with no ACLF (n = 12), ACLF grade 1 (n = 11), ACLF grade 2 (n = 14) and ACLF grade 3 (n = 13) as per CLIF-SOFA criteria was 8.3%, 18.2%, 42.9% and 76.9% (χ² for trend, P = 0.002) and 90-d mortality was 16.7%, 27.3%, 78.6% and 100% (χ² for trend, P < 0.0001) respectively. Patients with prior decompensation had similar 28-d and 90-d mortality (39.3% and 53.6%) as patients without prior decompensation (36.4% and 63.6%) (P = NS). AUROCs for 28-d mortality were 0.795, 0.787, 0.739 and 0.710 for CLIF-SOFA, APACHE-II, Child-Pugh and MELD scores respectively. On multivariate analysis of these scores, CLIF-SOFA was the only significant independent predictor of mortality with an odds ratio 1.538 (95%CI: 1.078-2.194).CONCLUSION: CLIF-SOFA criteria is better than APASL criteria to classify patients into ACLF based on their prognosis. CLIF-SOFA score is the best predictor of short-term mortality.     

Collagen proportionate area predicts long-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

Background and aimsThere are several short-term prognostic scores for alcoholic hepatitis (AH) that combine demographical and biochemical parameters. The extent of liver fibrosis may also be relevant to the prognosis of AH with potential added value. We evaluated collagen proportionate area (CPA) as a predictor of short and long-term mortality in AH.MethodsWe retrospectively included patients with biopsy-verified AH. Clinical, laboratory and outcome data were collected. CPA and five AH scores were calculated: Maddrey's DF, MELD, GAHS, ABIC, and the Lille Model. Predictors of short and long-term all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox regression analysis.ResultsWe included 140 patients with AH. In total, 67 (48%) patients died after a median follow-up of 66 (IQR 102) months, with 17 (12%) dying within the first 90-days. CPA was not a predictor of 90-days mortality and had no additional value to the prognostic AH scores on short-term mortality. However, CPA predicted long-term mortality independently of prognostic AH scores. Importantly, CPA and abstinence from alcohol were independent predictors of long-term mortality in patients alive 90 days after the biopsy.ConclusionCPA predicts long-term mortality in patients with AH independently of abstinence from alcohol but has no prognostic value on short-term mortality.     

MELD accurately predicts mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

Assessing severity of disease in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is useful for predicting mortality, guiding treatment decisions, and stratifying patients for therapeutic trials. The traditional disease-specific prognostic model used for this purpose is the Maddrey discriminant function (DF). The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a more recently developed scoring system that has been validated as an independent predictor of patient survival in candidates for liver transplantation. The aim of the present study was to examine the ability of MELD to predict mortality in patients with AH. A retrospective cohort study of 73 patients diagnosed with AH between 1995 and 2001 was performed at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. MELD was the only independent predictor of mortality in patients with AH. MELD was comparable to DF in predicting 30-day mortality (c-statistic and 95% CI: 0.83 [0.71-0.96] and 0.74 [0.62-0.87] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant) and 90-day mortality (c-statistic and 95% CI: 0.86 [0.77-0.96] and 0.83 [0.74-0.92] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant). A MELD score of 21 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 75% in predicting 90-day mortality in AH. In conclusion, MELD is useful for predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality in patients with AH and maintains some practical and statistical advantages over DF in predicting mortality rate in these patients. MELD is a useful clinical tool for gauging mortality and guiding treatment decisions in patients with AH, particularly those complicated by ascites and/or encephalopathy.     

Liver progenitor cell markers correlate with liver damage and predict short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition developed in patients with underlying alcoholic liver disease. Ductular reaction has been associated with chronic alcohol consumption but there is no information regarding the extent of liver progenitor cell (LPC) proliferation in AH. The aim of this study was to investigate LPC markers in AH and its correlation with disease severity. Fifty-nine patients with clinical and histological diagnosis of AH were included in the study. LPC markers were assessed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and immunohistochemistry. Standard logistic regression analysis and classification and regression trees (CART) analysis were used for statistical analysis. A microarray analysis showed an up-regulation of LPC markers in patients with AH. Real-time PCR demonstrated that epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM), Prominin-1, and Keratin7 were significantly increased in patients with AH compared with normal livers (P ≤ 0.01), chronic hepatitis C (P ≤ 0.01), and HCV-induced cirrhosis (P ≤ 0.01). Immunohistochemistry scores generated for Keratin7 and EpCAM demonstrated a good correlation with gene expression. Keratin7 gene expression correlated with liver failure as assessed by model for endstage liver disease score (r = 0.41, P = 0.006) and Maddrey's discriminant function (r = 0.43, P = 0.004). Moreover, Keratin7 (OR1.14, P = 0.004) and Prominin-1 (OR1.14, P = 0.002), but not EpCAM (OR1.16, P = 0.06), were identified as independent predictors of 90-day mortality. CART analysis generated an algorithm based on the combination of Keratin7 and EpCAM gene expression that stratified three groups of patients with high, intermediate, and low short-term mortality (89%, 33%, and 6%, respectively; area under the receiver operating curve 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.87). Keratin7 expression provided additional discrimination potential to the age, bilirubin, international normalization ratio, creatinine (ABIC) score. CONCLUSION: LPC markers correlate positively with severity of liver disease and short-term mortality in AH patients. This study suggests that LPC proliferation may be an important feature of AH pathophysiology.     

Chronic liver failure-consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute decompensation scores predict mortality in Brazilian cirrhotic patients

AIM To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.METHODS This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium(CLIF-C) acute decompensation score(CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score(CLIF-C ACLF),regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality,as well as to compare them to other prognostic models,such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD),MELD Sodium(MELD-Na),ChildPugh(CP) score,and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score(CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves,area under the curves(AUC) and 95%CI.RESULTS One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission,18 patients had acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation(AD) without ACLF,of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization(AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d(9.0%) and 90-d(18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group(both P 0.001). On the other hand,28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group(P = 0.542 and P = 0.708,respectively). Among patients with ACLF,at 28 d from the diagnosis,CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line,with an AUC(95%CI) of 0.71(95%CI: 0.54-0.88,P = 0.021). Among patients with AD,all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality,presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75(95%CI: 0.63-0.88),CP score 0.72(95%CI: 0.59-0.85),MELD score 0.75(95%CI: 0.61-0.90),MELD-Na score 0.76(95%CI: 0.61-0.90),and CLIF-C OF score 0.74(95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70(95%CI: 0.57-0.82),CP score 0.73(95%CI: 0.62-0.84),MELD score 0.71(95%CI: 0.59-0.83),MELD-Na score 0.73(95%CI: 0.62-0.84),and CLIF-C OF score 0.65(95%CI: 0.52-0.78).CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF,but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.