基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

随着社交网络的不断发展,借助社交网络进行传播的舆情信息的威胁越来越大. 本文利用博弈论的方法研究了舆情信息的传播机制,从理性博弈和非理性博弈的角度出发对个体与邻居的交互行为进行建模. 随后以目前较为成熟的传染病模型为基础,通过引入传播学中的社会威慑因素来构建基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型,以实现适应舆情传播研究的仿真系统,继而将基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型在无标度网络和小世界网络上的动力学特征进行理论分析. 在仿真环境中对非理性博弈的舆情传播模型进行实验,分析模型参数、网络密度和舆情传播源对舆情传播的影响,其结果符合理论分析结果. 最后对无标度网络上舆情传播的控制策略进行了研究,包括:社会威慑方法、目标免疫方法和正面消息方法,为社交网络上的政策制定提供了理论基础.     

面向论坛网络的观点传播与舆情形成模型

根据网络论坛的信息传播规律和用户交互特性,提出了一个基于节点影响力的离散时间观点传播与舆情形成模型。在该模型中,节点具有自我影响力和观点值,并且节点影响力被定义为网络中边的权值,节点在每一个周期内重新分配权值并更新它们的观点。节点观点收敛于某一定值时,形成网络舆情。仿真结果表明,所提模型可以准确地体现节点观点的动态交互特性和收敛特征,并可为舆情传播趋势的预测研究提供依据。     

基于改进的元胞自动机的网络舆情传播模型

本文针对网络舆情传播,结合元胞自动机理论,提出了一种三维元胞自动机模型。该模型能够更加准确地模拟网络舆情的传播动态,有效地解决舆情传播过程中遇到的问题。实验结果表明新的模型和算法简便、高效,基于三维元胞自动机建立的传播模型清晰的表达了网络舆情传播的过程。     

异质CA模型上含有导控策略的网络舆情传播研究*

为了研究网络舆情在导控机制下的传播特点,并针对解析范式无法模拟微观个体交互产生宏观行为的缺点,在元胞自动机模型上,考虑舆情个体异质属性和个体之间意见交互特征,建立了一种含有导控策略的网络舆情控制模型。在此基础上,定义元胞基于邻域影响和本身异质属性决定的状态转换规则,提出了针对不同类别元胞的导控策略。在仿真环境中,对异质性元胞状态交互与演进进行了实验,从而分析异质属性和导控策略对舆情传播的作用效果。结果表明：对易感类、接触类和传播类元胞进行引导达到的舆情导控效果各不相同。元胞自动机上的舆情导控模型,能够比较真实反映网络舆情在导控作用下的传播情况。     

负面网络舆情对商业银行影响机理及应对措施研究

互联网极大丰富了舆情的传播方式，正、负面信息在传播中交互影响，负面信息在非理性个体催化和网民盲从下引发负面网络舆情。本文针对商业银行负面网络舆情事件进行案例剖析，分析出负面网络舆情具有正负面信息博弈频繁、负面信息传播速度快、负面信息辟谣难和风险溢出等特征。基于特征分析结果构建负面网络舆情对商业银行影响机理“5W”模型，并以调查问卷方式对上述影响机理模型进行验证，发现负面信息内容和主体印象会影响负面舆情对商业银行造成的伤害程度，以及负面舆情会打击商业银行市场信心，重构市场份额，存在风险溢出效应等现象。最后，讨论了商业银行在负面舆情事件的事前、事中及事后阶段分别可采用的预防和应对手段。     

无标度特性下的网络舆情演化迁移元胞模型

通过实证分析网络舆情演化的无标度特性,将网络舆情演化分成两个阶段:观点形成阶段和观点交互阶段.构建BA'模型,提出无标度特性下的观点形成算法;结合作者前期研究成果迁移元胞自动机网络舆情演化模型,提出了无标度特性下的观点交互算法;观点形成算法和观点交互算法组成了无标度特性下的网络舆情演化二阶段模型.对网络舆情演化的二阶段模型进行仿真,模拟现实网络舆情演化的观点形成和观点交互过程,绘制出倾向度状态转换图和粗细粒度倾向度曲线;经过仿真分析,揭示了网民观点倾向度和网民素养对网络舆情演化的影响规律.     

基于微博交互关系算法的敏感舆情研究

传统的敏感舆情模型中,不论是基于文本或是数据挖掘的分析方法都是直接处理网络舆情,未结合网络传播特性分析.针对上述问题,研究并采用基于微博交互关系算法:通过量化微博的敏感程度,分析用户的交互关系来构建微博敏感舆论传播模型.实验基于新浪微博,搜索到一定数量的敏感用户,对用户的交互行为进行分析,得到未来有发表敏感舆论倾向的用户并进行监控.实验结果证明,与传统的舆情模型相比,该方法可行且有效,开拓了舆情分析思路,适用于当前网络舆情研究.     

融合社交网络用户自身属性的信息传播数学建模与舆情演化分析

针对传统的社交网络信息传播模型极少将用户属性和信息特征这两个因素纳入到信息传播模型研究中的不足,该文提出了一种基于用户自身属性的信息传播模型。首先该文抽取用户影响力、用户态度、用户年龄、信息能量、信息价值等特征并构建交互规则;其次,根据这些特征建立信息传播的数学模型,模拟社交网络舆情演化过程;最后,为验证模型的有效性,开展了与真实事件的实证分析对比实验。实验结果表明: 仿真结构与真实数据的相似度大于0.97,因而该模型符合社交网络舆情信息传播的特性,能够较为准确地描述社交网络中的舆情传播过程。     

基于灰色神经网络的Web社区主题舆情传播模型

Web舆情传播的动态性,不确定性等特征给精确预测舆情传播带来困难．在分析了灰色理论系统的基础上,提出了灰色理论微分方程型模型（GM）和扩展BP神经网络的组合模型,该组合模型综合考虑了网络的结构和传播特性,首先建立灰色理论微分方程型模型,然后映射到扩展的BP神经网络中,通过训练数据来训练该神经网络,使网络具有传播预测能力．仿真实验表明,该组合模型在Web社区主题舆情传播预测精确性方面高于单一的GM模型．     

基于参数反演的网络舆情传播趋势预测——以新浪微博为例

针对现有的舆情传播模型研究与实际舆情数据结合较少以及难以从舆情大数据中挖掘舆情传播内在规律的问题,提出一种基于实际网络舆情大数据采用神经网络的舆情传播模型参数反演算法。改进经典SIR传染病传播模型,构建一种网络舆情传播模型,基于该模型对实际案例进行参数反演,预测网络舆情的后续传播趋势,并与马尔可夫预测模型对比,所提算法可以精确预测舆情的具体热度值。实验结果表明,所提算法在预测性能上具有一定的优越性,可以用于网络突发事件传播的数据拟合、过程模拟和趋势预测。     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.     

A pragmatic multi-method investigation of discrepant technological events: Coping,attributions, and ‘accidental’ learning

Discrepant technological events or situations that entail a problem, a misunderstanding or a difficulty with the Information Technology (IT) being employed, are common in the workplace, and can lead to frustration and avoidance behaviors. Little is known, however, about how individuals cope with these events. This paper examines these events by using a multi-method pragmatic approach informed by coping theory. The results of two studies – a critical incident study and an experiment – serve to build and test, respectively, a theoretical model that posits that individuals use a variety of strategies when dealing with these events: they experience negative emotions, make external attributions, and adopt engagement coping strategies directed at solving the event, eventually switching to a disengagement coping strategy when they feel they have no control over the situation. Furthermore, users’ efforts may result in ‘accidental’ learning as they try to overcome the discrepant IT events through engagement coping. The paper ends with a discussion of the results in light of existing literature, future opportunities for research, and implications for practice.     

The Distributed Time-Triggered Simulation Scheme: Core Principles and Supporting Execution Engine

Distributed real-time simulation is a young technology field but its practice is under increasing demands. In recent years the author and his collaborators have been establishing a new approach called the distributed time-triggered simulation (DTS) scheme which is conceptually simple and easy to use but widely applicable. The concept was initiated in the course of developing a new-generation object-oriented real-time programming scheme called the time-triggered message-triggered object (TMO) programming scheme. Some fundamental issues inherent in distributed real-time simulation that were learned during recent experimental studies are discussed along with some approaches for resolving the issues. An execution engine developed to support both the TMOs engaged in control computation and the TMOs engaged in DTS is also discussed along with its possible extensions that will enable significantly larger-scale DTSs.     

Software-Konfigurationsmanagement in großen Softwareprojekten

Zusammenfassung Mit zunehmender Größe der Softwaresysteme verschärfen sich die für die Software-Herstellung typischen Probleme: Beherrschen großer Objektmengen, Erhalten der Systemkonsistenz, Kontrolle der ständigen Änderungseinflüsse und Gewährleisten einer langen Lebensdauer. Die Disziplin Konfigurationsmanagement bildet den methodischen Ansatz, diese Probleme besser zu beherrschen. Software-Konfigurationsmanagement faßt die Herstellung von Softwaresystemen als eine Abfolge von kontrollierten Änderungen an gesicherten Zwischen- und Endergebnissen auf. Dargestellt werden die Objekte und Funktionen des Software-Konfigurationsmanagements sowie die hierfür in großen Software-Projekten benötigten Methoden, Instanzen und Hilfsmittel.     

Information for Authors

正http://www.zju.edu.cn/jzus http://www.springerlink.com Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)are edited by the international board of distinguished Chinese and foreign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest developments and achievements in scientific research in China and     

Editorial:Brain-machine interface(BMI) and cyborg intelligence

正Brain-machine interfaces(BMIs)aim at building a direct communication pathway between the brain and an external device,and represent an area of research where significant progress has been made during the past decade.Based on BMIs,mind information can be read out by neural signals to control     

Information for Authors

正http://www.zju.edu.cn/jzus http://www.springerlink.com Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)are edited by the international board of distinguished Chinese and foreign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest developments and achievements in scientific research in China and overseas to the world’s scientific circles,especially to stimulate     

SCIENCE CHINA Information Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Information for Authors

正http://www.zju.edu.cn/jzus http://www.springerlink.com Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)are edited by the international board of distinguished Chinese and foreign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest developments and achievements in scientific research in China and overseas to the world’s scientific circles,especially to stimulate