基于马尔可夫链的市场营销预测模型

本文通过建立产品的状态转移概率矩阵,利用马尔可夫链进行分析和计算,给出产品的市场营销预测的数学模型,从而给经济预测提供切实可靠的理论依据,并且运用Excel软件实现马尔可夫预测技术.设计的程序使用方便,操作简单,大大提高了工作效率,具有一定的实用和推广价值.     

电压型Buck电路控制器的复频域设计及仿真研究

通过分析电压型Buck电路控制器,在复频域下用模拟和数字两种方法对Buck变换器的补偿网络进行了设计.应用PSpice软件建立了系统的模拟电路模型,对系统的频率特性进行了仿真,并用Mathcad仿真软件对复频域下系统连续模型的频率特性进行了验证.然后运用根轨迹理论讨论了一种基于根轨迹和零极点配置的数字控制器设计方法,根据系统性能指标设计了补偿网络,并用Matlab仿真软件对控制系统离散数学模型进行了特性仿真.仿真结果表明用该方法所设计的控制器性能与模拟电路建立的控制器性能完全相同.经过离散化的控制器数学模型可以方便地在DSP等数字信号处理器上实现,为开关变换器的数字化控制提供了简便的实现方法.     

企业产品出厂管理系统的设计与实现

围绕产品出厂而进行的管理过程,设计实现了产品出厂管理系统,并简述了系统应用的数学模型。该系统对于提高产品出厂的自动化程度和企业经济效益有重要意义,对生产许多种类产品的企业具有较大应用推广价值。     

一种基于数学模型的鲁棒设计新方法及软件实现

提出公差设计的最小偏差数学模型,与参数设计的最小灵敏度法一起构成了一种基于数学模型的鲁棒设计新方法,并完成了该方法的软件实现,当产品的干扰变量与其目标值发生偏移时,运用该方法得到的设计变量公称值及共公差在保证产品质量的前提下,可以最大限度地扩大公差带的范围,降低成本,最后,以三杆构件系统的鲁棒设计为例,说明了该方法的运用。     

一个正交旋转及回归分析设计方案的研究与实现

本文阐述了正交旋转及回归分析的设计思想和数学模型，给出了运用这种设计求解复杂系统的方法及相应的软件实现方案．     

基于Web服务的数学模型库管理系统的设计

针对目前各种数学模型库管理系统存在的问题,结合Web服务可分布式部署、共享性强、可远程调用的特点,通过建立数学模型到Web服务的映射,在运用Web服务对数学模型打包的基础上,设计了一种新的数学模型库管理系统,并研究了系统的结构、使用步骤和具体的实现。该系统通过分布式网络环境对数学模型进行部署和访问,使得数学模型具有较强的可共享性和可控性,同时也大大降低了模型库管理系统与数学模型之间的耦合性,有效地解决数学模型库的管理问题,同现有的系统相比,具有明显的优越性。     

维修性计算的计算机建模技术

建立产品维修性的物理模型和数学模型,是设计产品维修性辅助设计软件的关键。本文采用模块化设计技术,将产品的复杂结构形式转化为产品的维修性功有层次图及层、并行维修性流程图。并据此,建立了相应的数学模型,为利用计算机进行维修性预计、分配及分析奠定了基础。     

基于UG二次开发的卫生陶瓷坐便器产品CAD系统

在分析坐便器等卫生陶瓷产品结构和研发过程的基础上,建立了其产品CAD系统的整体架构和产品设计流程,运用UG/OPEN KF实现了设计参数的集成,采用NURBS曲线和组合曲线作为特征控制曲线构建特征模型,解决了产品多样性、参数化特征相关及模型修改等关键技术问题.以通用CAD软件UG为平台,运用VC 和UG/OPEN进行二次开发,建立了卫生陶瓷坐便器产品的CAD系统.该系统可实现产品的快速设计,对提高产品研发能力有重要意义.     

数字电路虚拟实验的建模与仿真

为解决一般单位教学必须的实验设备不齐全的问题,对数字电路课程的虚拟实验系统进行了分析与设计,运用数学模型、VHDL文本编辑、图形建模仿真等方法实现了数字电路的虚拟实验,实现了可设计性、操作的任意性和具有真实感的功能,为学生提供了逼真的、不受时间、地域限制的虚拟空间实验平台,自己动手编程、调试、运行程序、模拟仿真结果。     

数学建模在昼夜节律生物钟中的应用

昼夜节律生物钟是在分子水平上产生的以24小时为周期的内在节律振子,大量的遗传信息和复杂的分子环路使得人们能在系统的角度对昼夜节律生物钟进行理论研究.数学模型有助于我们理解产生生物钟振子的分子调控机制及其动力学特性.通过数值模拟,数学模型可以分析关键参数在系统中的作用、预测新的行为以供实验进一步验证,也可以为实验中的直观发现提供合理的解释,或者揭示生物钟分子机制的设计原理.本文总结了一些昼夜节律生物钟的数学模型,讨论并阐述了数学模型的建立和分析以及数学模型的优势及局限性.这个论述将为研究昼夜节律生物钟提供广泛的参考,同时为进一步了解数学模型在生命系统研究中的作用提供借鉴.     

The bright side of third-party marketplaces in retailing

A prevalent practice for retailers is to provide a marketplace for third-party sellers (3P sellers) to sell products directly to consumers, charging the sellers a commission fee. This study investigates the downstream retailer's optimal strategy to introduce a 3P seller who sells a substitutable product. We develop a game-theoretic model, through which our first result shows that the retailer introduces a 3P seller only when the marginal costs of the products are in a medium range. Second, the retailer's strategy of introducing a 3P seller may benefit the manufacturer, even though the introduction creates downstream competition that may reduce the sales of the manufacturer's product. This happens because the strategy of introducing a 3P seller can mitigate the double marginalization between the manufacturer and retailer. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that introducing a 3P seller always results in a “win–lose” outcome for the retailer and manufacturer, we derive evidence that introducing a 3P seller can lead to a “win-win” outcome for the retailer and manufacturer and thus improve the channel performance. Lastly, we find that the retailer's 3P seller introduction strategy can also improve the consumer surplus because this strategy increases competition.     

An agent based modeling approach for determining optimal price-rebate schemes

Delayed incentives in the form of cash mail-in rebates have become very popular. While some research has been conducted on consumer perception and behavior toward rebates, little research has been undertaken with respect to a seller’s optimal rebate strategy. We use an agent-based modeling approach for jointly determining optimal price and rebate value. This approach has been previously applied to pricing and can capture some aspects of the problem which are difficult to analyze using traditional mathematical modeling. The model indicates that rebates are much more profitable when their values are jointly determined with price. In addition, the profitability of rebates at a given time depends on past consumers’ experience with rebates and that consumers’ memory of their past rebate redemption behavior plays an important role in determining the profitability of rebates. Also, the analysis shows that agent-based modeling may provide an alternative method for analyzing problems in which interactions between participants in the systems, i.e. consumers, sellers, and regulating agencies, are important in determining the overall behavior of the system.     

Segmenting uncertain demand in group-buying auctions

Demand uncertainty is a key factor in a seller’s decision-making process for products sold through online auctions. We explore demand uncertainty in group-buying auctions in terms of the extent of low-valuation demand and high-valuation demand. We focus on the analysis of a monopolistic group-buying retailer that sells products to consumers who express different product valuations. We also examine the performance of a group-buying seller who faces competitive posted-price sellers in a market for the sale of the same products, under similar assumptions about uncertain demand. Based on a Nash equilibrium analysis of bidder strategies for both of these seller-side competition structures, we are able to characterize the group-buying auction bidders’ dominant strategies. We obtained a number of interesting findings. Group-buying is likely to be more effective in settings where there is larger low-valuation demand than high-valuation demand. The structure of demand matters. This finding has relevance to the marketplace for new cameras, next-generation microprocessors and computers, and other high-valuation goods, which are unlikely to be as effectively sold in group-buying markets. We obtained additional results for the case of continuous demand, and find that there is a basis for the seller to improve revenues via effective group-buying auction price curve design.     

Optimal maintenance policy and length of extended warranty within the life cycle of products

This paper investigates maintenance policy and length of extended warranty for repairable products from the seller’s viewpoint. When the product failed within the base and extended warranty periods, product failures are rectified using minimal repair. To reduce the number of product failures, the seller performs imperfect preventive maintenance (PM) actions when the age of the product reaches a controlled-limit within the base and extended warranty periods. After the base warranty period expires, the seller gives a discount of purchasing extended warranty expense if the consumer purchases the extended warranty for products. Under this maintenance scheme, the mathematical model of profit is constructed and then the optimal controlled-limit, the number and degree of PM and the length of extended warranty are obtained such that the expected total profit is maximized for the seller. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the influences of the optimal length of the extended warranty and the maintenance policy for profit model.     

服务规则约束下B2C平台企业竞争策略

基于服务规则约束机制的策略已成为B2C电子商务平台获取竞争优势重要手段之一。在双边市场理论模型基础上,分别建立了垄断和寡头竞争情形的B2C平台Hotelling竞争模型,比较分析了买方多归属卖方单归属和买卖双方多归属情形下竞争性B2C平台服务规则约束机制的最优策略。通过研究发现,垄断B2C平台下,平台企业和卖方企业都没有提高服务规则约束力度的意愿;在买方多归属卖方单归属时,卖方企业运作和维护服务规则约束机制更能提高用户体验和提高B2C平台绩效;在买卖双方多归属时,平台企业运作和维护服务规则约束机制更为有利。     

面向卖家过滤的大众化信用模型

为精确衡量卖家的整体信用和局部信用,构建多产品信用模型和单产品信用模型。在此基础上,提出大众化信用模型的基本思想,过滤不符合用户要求的卖家,提高推荐准确度。构建模型时引入评价者可信度、价格波动、惩罚因子等要素,提高信用度推荐的准确性。仿真实验验证了该模型在防范信用欺诈等方面的有效性。     

多智能体协同选择的智能导购模型

基于多智能体协同选择提出了一种导购选择模型,该模型可识别其他可信买方智能体("值得信赖的朋友"),并将它们关于卖方的信息结合自身关于卖方的信息综合起来协同选择质高价低的卖方,从而实现高质量的导购性能。构建了一个存在多种类型的买方和卖方的购物模拟环境,并进行了多组实验。实验结果表明,该模型可以准确地识别可信买方智能体,并可在复杂的购物环境中高效地选择出优质卖方。此外,实验结果还表明,有了该模型,单个买方智能体选择优质卖方的能力要明显高于无多智能体协同选择情况下单个买方智能体的选择能力。     

Using “last-minute” sales for vertical differentiation on the Internet

In Internet-based commerce, sellers often use multiple distribution channels for the sale of standard consumer goods. We study a model of second-degree price discrimination in which a monopolist sells to risk-averse buyers. The seller uses two channels that differ in their risk attributes. In one channel prices and qualities are fixed and availability is assured. In the second channel, the seller offers a joint distribution of prices and qualities and may not guarantee availability. We characterize optimal two-channel selling policies. We show that it can be optimal to offer multiple identical items in a random sale event. However, the seller cannot benefit by offering two distinct quality levels in a sale event that is held with probability smaller than one. We use the model to offer explanations for the observed behavior of online sellers and discuss implementation issues in recent e-commerce environments.     

Intelligent agents in electronic markets for information goods: customization, preference revelation and pricing

Electronic commerce has enabled the use of intelligent agent technologies that can evaluate buyers, customize products, and price in real-time. Our model of an electronic market with customizable products analyzes the pricing, profitability and welfare implications of agent-based technologies that price dynamically based on product preference information revealed by consumers. We find that in making the trade-off between better prices and better customization, consumers invariably choose less-than-ideal products. Furthermore, this trade-off has a higher impact on buyers on the higher end of the market and causes a transfer of consumer surplus towards buyers with a lower willingness to pay. As buyers adjust their product choices in response to better demand agent technologies, seller revenues decrease since the gains from better buyer information are dominated by the lowering of the total value created from the transactions. We study the strategic and welfare implications of these findings, and discuss managerial and technology development guidelines.     

一种新的二次分发数字指纹协议

现有的数字指纹协议主要基于Buyer-Seller模型，卖方拥有数字产品的原始拷贝，在数字产品中嵌入与买方相关的数字指纹，出售给买方。如果卖方发现了非法拷贝，根据提取出的指纹跟踪非法的买方。该文介绍了有别于Buyer-Seller模型的二次分发模型，在此模型基础上，引入防篡改硬件和对称嵌入技术，提出了一种可用于在线交易的、安全高效的数字指纹协议。