一次多回击负地闪放电过程的甚高频辐射和传输特征分析

利用短基线时间差甚高频(VHF)辐射源定位系统对一次多回击负地闪放电过程进行详细研究发现, 负地闪的预击穿、梯级先导、直窜先导及回击后云内放电过程伴随有较强烈的VHF辐射。结合同步观测的闪电快、慢电场变化资料, 分析VHF辐射源时空发展特征发现, 预击穿阶段辐射源在云中的放电通道为双向发展, 平均速度均在104 m s-1量级, 预击穿下行分支直接转化为梯级先导, 并产生多个分支通道同时向地面发展, 先导平均速度在105 m s-1量级。继后回击之前先导过程均产生多个分支通道, 直窜先导平均速度在105～106 m s-1量级, 新开辟的梯级先导速度在105 m s-1量级。闪击间及地闪后期云内放电活动较为复杂, 主要表现为辐射源从闪电起始区域发展, 进一步延伸云内闪电通道。地闪后期多次负极性K变化过程(Kitagawa and Kobayashi, 1958)主要表现为负极性流光沿之前的正极性电离通道快速发展, 平均速度在106 m s-1量级。     

云闪放电通道发展及其辐射特征

利用闪电宽带干涉仪系统,对中国南方(广东)地区云闪时空演变特征、辐射及其相应电场变化特征进行分析研究。根据云闪电场变化波形,云闪放电过程可划分成活跃阶段和最后阶段,辐射源定位结果表明,云闪放电起始于向上发展的负击穿过程,通道向上发展的速度约为3～3.3×105m·s-1。云闪放电的主通道在活跃阶段形成,该期间辐射源随时间演变和相应电场变化表明,云内电荷结构具有上正下负的偶极性电荷结构。云闪的最后阶段辐射源主要在早期形成的通道内出现,其辐射源活动特征与地闪的回击过程比较相似;云闪辐射能量主要集中在2～3MHz以下的低频段,且辐射强度随频率增加迅速减弱。     

云下部正电荷区与负地闪预击穿过程

三维雷电观测系统LMA(Lightning Mapping Array)是最近发展起来的基于GPS时钟同步的闪电VHF辐射源到达时间差(TOA)定位技术,能以很高的时间分辨率(50 ns)和空间定位精度(50-100 m)展现闪电放电发展过程的三维时空分布,揭示雷暴中电荷结构及其与放电过程的关系.文中利用三维雷电VHF辐射源观测资料分析了负地闪预击穿过程的时空分布特征,讨论了云下部正电荷区对负地闪发生的影响,其结果表明在首次回击之前存在长时间预击穿过程的负地闪中,预击穿过程是云中部负电荷区与下部正电荷区之间的一种云内放电过程,闪电起始于云中部负电荷区,然后向下发展传输,进入正电荷区后闪电通道在云下部正电荷区水平发展,其放电特征与反极性云闪放电一致,云内放电过程最后阶段的K型击穿激发了地闪的梯级先导,梯级先导穿过云下部正电荷区向下发展传输.云下部正电荷的存在是导致负地闪首次回击之前存在长时间云内预击穿过程的主要原因.     

甘肃中川地区雷暴地闪特征的初步分析

本文分析了1987年6月28日甘肃中川地区一次雷暴过程中地面4个测站的电场资料,并定量估算了4个地闪的8个回击所中和的电荷量及其高度。负地闪回击所中和的电荷离地高度为4km左右(对应的环境温度为-11.2℃),而正地闪回击所中和的电荷离地高度为2km左右(环境温度+4.9℃)。负地闪大多发生在云闪后的电场恢复阶段,且在开始时往往具有持续几百毫秒的云内放电过程。其激发过程可能是首先在云底部正电荷区产生向上传输的持续正流光,导致云中部负电荷向下移动,并引发向下传输的负先导,最终导致地闪回击的发生。     

云闪K过程的三维时空特征

K过程是闪电放电过程中的一种放电事件。该文使用两套VHF宽带干涉仪2010年夏季在广州从化地区获取的3次云闪三维闪电辐射源定位数据,分析其中的K过程时空发展特征与地面电场特征。结果表明:宽带干涉仪观测到的K过程主要由快速发展的负极性放电事件组成,按定位结果的分布可划分为3个阶段:负极性反冲先导发生在云闪起始区域下方,沿正先导一端已有路径向闪电起始区域传播;部分反冲先导能进入之前负先导建立的通道并快速发展;反冲先导将原有通道激活后进一步促进负先导继续发展。同时使用辐射源三维定位数据计算了8次反冲先导的平均发展速度,反冲先导的发展速度为106~107 m·s-1量级,与负地闪中的负极性直窜先导相似,但均小于回击速度。     

短基线时间差闪电辐射源探测系统和初步定位结果

介绍了一种新型的闪电探测设备———短基线时间差法辐射源定位系统,并选取2002年夏季野外观测实验中的辐射源定位结果,结合电场变化特征分别对两次地闪和云闪进行了分析。结果表明,该系统对地闪先导过程和云闪产生的辐射源能够较好地定位。定位结果的个例分析证实,观测地区的两次云闪放电过程都由起始于云下部负电荷区的负极性击穿引发,然后向上发展到上部正电荷区,通道的发展速度约为1.29×105m·s-1,地闪梯级先导的传播速度约为1.73×105m·s-1。     

闪电放电通道的三维结构特征

通过对闪电VHF辐射源高时空分辨率的三维观测资料的分析发现,无论云闪还是地闪其时间和空间分布特征可表明雷暴中的基本电荷结构。云内闪电放电不仅发生在上部正电荷区与中部主负电荷区之间,也同样会在中部主负电荷区与下部正电荷区之间发生,除极性相反之外,其它特征是一致的。云闪过程在最初的10一20ms内垂直向上(正常极性)或向下(反极性)发展,之后转为水平方向的传输。在正电荷区辐射点较多,闪电通道清晰;在负电荷区辐射点较少,且从闪电的起始位置以一种倒退的方式水平延伸闪电通道。云闪中的K型击穿不仅发生在闪电的后期,而且还发生在活跃期,并不时发展到正电荷区而触发新的闪电分叉。负地闪首次回击之前的梯级先导过程辐射较强,继后回击前的直窜先导的辐射较弱。回击之间闪电在云内水平发展,通道以细小的分叉为主要特征,其间不时有没有到地的企图先导过程发生。正地闪的先导过程基本没有可探测到的辐射点,在回击之前有一段云内过程,回击之后有更长的云内过程发展,其闪电通道不像负地闪那样精细,在回击之后的最初阶段辐射点较少,而在通道的顶端辐射点反而较多。正负地闪的发生发展特征有很大的不同,表明正、负极性的电荷击穿及传输过程的机制存在明显差异。     

一种正地闪触发过程观测和分析

利用2008年夏季在山东滨州获得的无线电窄带干涉仪及同步快慢电场资料,对发生于2008年6月29日的一次具有2次回击的正地闪进行了波形特征分析及定位处理。结果表明,正地闪预击穿过程起始于云中部负电荷区域,有持续时间长达163ms的预击穿过程,并在预击穿后期产生很多双极性脉冲。通过与负地闪的比较,发现云下部正电荷区的浓度对云中触发闪电的极性有一定的影响。正先导的触发和传输过程需要长时间的云内放电过程来提供能量,正流光传输是非阶梯型,结合同步观测的快电场三维定位结果的结合,得到正地闪首次先导速度约为4.1×105 m.s-1,首次回击的速度约为9×107 m.s-1,直窜先导的速度约为4.7×106 m.s-1,继后回击的速度约为9.6×107 m.s-1。正地闪的回击速度偏小,可能是由于干涉仪通道是二维的,且有一定的误差,还讨论了正地闪继后回击产生的原因是由于下部正电荷区很强,不同于一般的正地闪且只有1次回击过程。在该个例中还观测到正先导传输过程中的VHF辐射,这可能是由于雷暴过程下部正电荷区域很强。     

用VLF/VHF信号大容量采集系统观测云地闪电放电过程

简述了一种高分辨、大容量闪电VLF/VHF信号记录系统,报道了一次包含12次对地回击、平均回击间隔70ms、持续时间超过800 ms的地闪放电过程的VLF/VHF辐射波形全景以及分析结果.这一个典型事例揭示了一些有趣的现象:(1)这次过程的头5 ms出现了强烈的VLF双极性大脉冲序列,标志着云内初始击穿过程启动;对应于一系列VLF辐射事件出现了强烈的VHF辐射爆发,总体上看,前380 ms期间VHF辐射异常强烈,呈现为间歇式准连续辐射,之后强烈VHF辐射则更多地表现为分立脉冲式爆发特征.(2)与回击主电流峰期间VHF辐射较弱不同,地闪最强的VHF辐射来自初始击穿过程和回击后云内放电通道扩展或者新通道形成过程;在初始击穿阶段和回击间歇期,出现了不止一次强烈的VHF辐射爆发并不伴随明显的VLF辐射.(3)回击间歇期间一类云中放电过程产生一系列半宽为3～4μs左右、出现频率约105Hz的VLF快脉冲串,整个脉冲串持续时间约1ms,频谱峰值区域在60～90 kHz,并伴随较强的VHF辐射,这些特征都与直窜先导特征一致.很可能这是一种云内K事件.(4)还给出了江淮地区地闪过程回击VLF/VHF辐射波形的统计特征,统计还显示当相继两次回击间隔小于40 ms时后面回击幅度倾向于比前面回击弱,当回击间隔时间大于100 ms时,后面回击比前面回击强的可能性大.     

基于不间断闪电波形采集的一次皖北雷暴负地闪特征观测

利用具有不间断信号记录能力系统记录的闪电波形资料,借助人工识别判定各次地闪的回击过程,研究了2012年7月9日发生在安徽淮北地区一次夏季雷暴过程的连续负地闪活动特征。该次雷暴3141次负地闪中,单回击地闪占15.5%,最大回击次数为18次,每次地闪平均回击次数为4.2次;在整个雷暴期间,单回击地闪比例和每次地闪平均回击次数存在显著的大小变化。负地闪过程平均持续时间为363.7 ms,相邻回击间隔时间的几何平均为75.3 ms,雷暴成熟期的回击间隔明显小于其它阶段。总体上后继回击强度远弱于首次回击,10031例后继回击与首次回击峰值强度之比几何平均为0.49,但是强于首次回击的后继回击过程并不罕见,34.8%的多回击地闪至少有一次后继回击强度大于首次回击,全部后继回击中有19.7%的强度超过首次回击。后继回击强度和回击间隔呈明显的随回击序号的系统性变化特征。约有38.6%的负地闪伴随可辨的双极性脉冲活动,该脉冲活动与首次回击之间的时间间隔几何平均为23.2 ms。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.