基于CA模型的香格里拉县土地利用变化模拟

以滇西北香格里拉县为例,利用1989、2000年TM(ETM)数据得出土地利用变化信息,利用元胞自动机理论对土地利用变化进行模拟和预测.预测结果经与2003年的调查结果对比,Kappa系数达0.79.与2000年相比,2015年土地利用模拟结果中自然/半自然植被面积减少幅度呈现增大趋势,减少面积占2000年自然/半自然植被总面积的9.32%;人工用地2000～2015年间282.45 hm2/年的速度增长,高于1989～2000年间208.3 hm2/年速度,主要来源是未利用土地、农业用地和自然/半自然植被的减少.农业用地2000～2015年间以1 563.613 hm2/年的速度增加,高于1989～2000年农业用地的1431.614 hm2/年速度,其增加面积主要来源于自然/半自然植被和未利用土地,主要集中在人工用地周围.     

基于GIS和RUSLE模型的东江源流域土壤侵蚀评价

为了解东江源流域的土壤侵蚀状况,为后续的水土保持工作提供科学依据,文章基于GIS技术和RUSLE模型,结合DEM、降雨量、土壤、遥感影像等数据,研究东江源流域2004年、2009年、2013年、2018年土壤侵蚀强度的时空动态变化特征.结果表明:东江源流域4个时期的平均土壤侵蚀模数分别为380.68、361.57、244.74、225.42 t/(km2·a),平均土壤侵蚀模数呈现出下降的趋势,说明土壤侵蚀状况好转;空间上,东江源流域的土壤侵蚀强度等级主要以无侵蚀、微度侵蚀、轻度侵蚀为主,均占流域侵蚀总面积的97.2％以上;土壤侵蚀强度等级转移矩阵表明,东江源流域2004—2018年土壤侵蚀强度呈现下降的趋势;东江源流域植被覆盖度不断增加,土壤侵蚀状况逐渐得到改善.     

重庆市主城区土地利用变化空间分异研究

本文选取重庆市主城区1988---2007年3个时期(1988、2001、2007年)的TM、中巴遥感影像资料,将研究区划分为11个区,从土地利用变化和土地利用综合程度变化等方面分析了研究区土地利用空间分异特征,并对土地利用变化驱动因子进行剖析.结果表明:1988-2007年土地利用结构变化总趋势为建设用地、林地面积增加,耕地面积减少;耕地、林地年变化速度较快,建设用地年变化速度最快,灌丛、水域相对居中;其中耕地主要转入绿地和建筑用地,林地经过了"减-增"的变化过程,灌丛面积持续增长;研究时期内,1988年土地利用综合程度指数为279.38,2001年增长为282.01,2007年土地利用综合指数增长最高为282.13.研究提示耕地转为建设用地对土地利用综合指数贡献最大.     

长春低碳生态城市发展测评研究

基于PSR模型对1999-2008年长春低碳生态城市发展情况和影响效应进行了研究.结果表明:1999-2008年长春市人均碳排放量由平稳转向快速上升,2003和2007年,最高值分别达0.708 t/人和1.307 t/人;而碳排放足迹从1999年的0.076 hm2/人上升到2008年的0.202 hm2/人,两者密切相关.城市碳排放影响效应分析显示,2000-2003年结构和强度效应影响显著,2004-2008年发展与生产效应贡献增大.医药、装备制造业对提升能源利用效益优于传统产业.长春市碳足迹生态压力呈现波动变化态势,排放与经济发展间未达到完全脱钩情景.     

基于马尔柯夫模型的石漠化演变趋势研究

在3S技术支持下,利用喀斯特石漠化生态脆弱区贵州清镇市红枫湖示范区2005和2007年的SPOT遥感影像,获取石漠化的转化数据,结合Markov模型确定相应的转移概率矩阵和反演分析,应用SPSS统计分析得出石漠化的未来演变趋势.结果表明,引入Markov模型预测石漠化的变化趋势是可行的,最大误差为7‰,综合误差为1‰;随着石漠化治理工程的开展,研究区内中度石漠化的变化最大,主要转变为潜在和轻度石漠化;到2025年研究区的强度石漠化将得到根本的逆转,转化为潜在石漠化的面积最多为4.07 km2.     

土地储备规模预测研究——以长春净月经济开发区为例

运用BP神经网络模型和灰色马尔柯夫模型对长春净月经济开发区土地储备规模进行了预测,确定了规划期内土地储备的合理规模:2010年为966～1 159 hm2,2015年为963～1 156 hm2,2020年为680～815 hm2.     

兴国县耕地面积变化的预测及驱动力分析

根据兴国县1997～2005年的统计资料和2005年全县土地利用变更数据,采用主成分分析法分析全县耕地变化驱动力的主要影响因子,通过建立多元线性回归模型预测耕地面积的变化趋势.结果表明,影响兴国县耕地数量变化的驱动力为人口、经济发展与政策因素、粮食生产力因素;预测表明,2020年兴国县耕地面积达3.15万hm2,呈减少趋势.     

井冈山市土地利用格局及其变化分析

以江西省井冈山市为研究区,以1994及2007年2景遥感影像为主要数据源,借助遥感和地理信息系统技术比较准确地调查了研究区1994～2007年的土地利用空间格局及其变化的时空特征.     

佛山市植被覆盖度的遥感估算及变化分析

选取2000和2007年两个时期的TM数据,利用基于NDVI的像元二分模型,估算佛山市的植被覆盖度,并分析其时空变化的情况.结果 表明,近8年来,佛山市的植被覆盖度总体上呈下降的趋势,并存在区域间不平衡的现象.较高植被覆盖区的面积减少了384.41 km2,变化率为27.26%,而较低植被覆盖区的面积和中度植被覆盖区的面积分别增加了80.55 km2和229.24 km2,变化率分别为14.17%和18.09%.禅城区、南海区和三水区高植被覆盖区和较高植被覆盖区的面积都有所减少,而较低植被覆盖区和中度植被覆盖区的面积都有所增加.顺德区则相反,高植被覆盖区和较高植被覆盖区的面积都有所增加,较低植被覆盖区和中度植被覆盖区的面积都有所减少.33个镇(街)的植被覆盖度变化存在差异,罗村、狮山、大沥的植被覆盖度下降幅度最大,均在10%以上,而伦教、北溶和均安的植被覆盖度则有一定的增加.     

2000～2007年夏季长江中下游地区降水分析

利用我国长江中下游地区30个站2000～2007年的夏季(6～8月)降水资料,对长江流域夏季降水的时空分布进行了分析.结果表明,长江中下游地区的夏季降水分布主要有北部型(2005、2007年)、南部型(2001、2003年)、中间型(2000、2004、2006年)以及整体型(2002年)4种.夏季降水与东亚大气环流的相关分析表明,长江流域地区的降水与高低空环流异常有明显的关系,即对流层中上层中高纬地区环流经向度加大,低纬地区副热带高压异常偏南,且中心或脊线稳定地维持在30° N以南,长江流域的降水就明显偏多.该研究对今后长江流域降水天气的诊断预测有较好的指导意义.     

转炉炉壳热应力分析

根据实际转炉建立实体模型。以有限元为手段,考虑了炉衬和炉壳材料的物性参数随温度变化的特点和炉衬与炉壳之间膨胀间隙,计算了转炉炉壳在温度载荷和炉衬膨胀压力同时作用下的热应力。所得结果可为转炉炉壳设计提供依据。     

The effect of amount of possession of the trait of hostility on accuracy of perception of hostility in others.

Some theories of personality hold that an individual's perception of others is influenced by his own personality characteristics; more specifically, that a trait of low social value will be projected more into others, and that insight into the possession of these characteristics reduces this distortion. These 2 hypotheses were tested by having a group of college students rate each other (including themselves) on degree of friendliness or hostility. Agreement with group rating about self yielded the insight score. In general, the hypotheses were supported; the "friendly" Ss were most accurate in their perception of others, and insight was positively associated with accurate perception. From Psyc Abstracts 36:04:4HL16M. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparison of rates of infection of two methods of emergency ventricular drainage

The rates of infection of two methods of external ventricular drainage in use at Atkinson Morley's Hospital--namely, (a) percutaneous drainage with Rickham reservoirs and (b) tunnelled ventriculostomies--were compared in this retrospective review. Percutaneous drainage of CSF with Rickham reservoirs was associated with a 27% rate of infection as identified by positive microbiological cultures; tunnelled ventriculostomy catheters had a 10% infection rate. The difference in the infection rate between the two methods was statistically significant (P < 0.015). Other variables examined, including the age and sex of the patients and the reasons for ventricular drainage, were not associated with an increased rate of infection. Most infections from either method were caused by a coagulase negative staphylococcus. The average duration of ventricular drainage before identification of positive cultures was 5.7 days for Rickham reservoirs and 6.0 days for ventriculostomies.     

浅析《野草》的版画特征

鲁迅先生一生热爱美术作品,对版画中木刻兴趣尤甚.<野草>作为其"写心之作",亦呈现出一些与木刻版画一致的审美特征:一是具有木刻版画的色彩特征,多对比、多冷色,有阴郁的美感;二是具有木刻版画的力度特征,环境描写、人物刻画处处刀锋毕现,遒劲有力,有一种"力之美".     

四辊破碎机车刀架的改造

针对四辊破碎机车刀架车削中存在的几个问题,详细介绍了电动车刀架的结构和工作原理,建立主要设计参数的数学表达式,并进行适当的分析。改造后,这种电动车刀架运行平稳、可靠、方便、省力,取得了预期的效果。     

Results of treatment of cancer of the cardia

Cancer of the cardia is traditionally discussed with cardiac cancer of the lower portion of the esophagus and upper gastric cancer invading the esophagus, and the specific characteristics of cancer of the cardia have never been clearly defined. We reviewed the outcome of 172 patients with adenocarcinoma of the cardia who had undergone radical surgery between 1949 and 1994 in the Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery of the Cancer Institute Hospital. The centers of the tumors were located within 2 cm above and below the boundary between the esophagus and the stomach, and their longitudinal diameter was less than 8 cm. We divided the patients into an early period (1949-1979; n = 79) and a late period (1980-1994; n = 93), and focused on the historical transition. There were no differences in patient gender or histology between the two periods. However, the late period was associated with fewer cases of esophageal invasion and shorter longitudinal diameter, as the age of the population advanced. The number of advanced cancers such as the localized and infiltrative type had decreased, and early cancer and early clinical stage had become more common, but despite the fact that the number of early cancers had increased, extended dissection, such as thoracic and paraaortic lymph node dissection, was performed more frequently. By clinical stage, the long-term outcome markedly improved in Stage I patient in the late period, and tended to improve in Stage II and III patients. This appears to have been attributable to the prevention of micrometastasis by extended dissection, although the number of early cancers is another major potential cause. There were no differences in the outcome of Stage IV patients between the two periods, and further advances in multimodality therapy must be awaited. The range of resection is basically proximal gastrectomy, and if there are adequate indications, the prognosis is favorable. In view of the status of lymphatic flow and lymph node metastasis, and long-term results, lateroaortic lymph node dissection is important. Since the number of early cancer patients has been increasing, if intraabdominal recurrence is prevented, intrathoracic lymph node dissection will contribute greatly to the outcome of such patients.     

焦炭热性能指标意义浅析

通过对焦炭在高炉内的历程及其变化规律的剖析,阐述焦炭热性能指标的意义,形象地把焦炭在高炉内的损耗分为三部分(M1,M2,M3)。指出M2对焦比及焦炭价格有一定的指导作用。     

Comparison of the results of surgical and conservative treatment of fractures of the diaphysis of the tibia

In this paper is treated the fundamental problematic of the fracture of the diaphysis of the tibia and the therapeutic results after the conservative and operative treatment are confronted. Among 518 patients with 433 open fractures and 35 with closed fractures of the diaphysis of the tibia, successful treatment of more 2/3 was obtained in the period from 1968 to 1972. Following our casuistics and literature, whose results are similar, we find out that the average total treatment of the osteosynthesis of the fracture of the diaphysis was shortened for 2,5 months depending upon the type and the localisation of the fracture. Apolied methods of the operative and conservative and conservative treatment in relation to the velocity of the medical cure as well as to the extreme anatomical-functional results are analised. We noticed that osteosynthesis, made by the intermedullary nail and the extension of the canals or by a small AO table, by the achieved stability makes conditions of immediate motions and an early rehabilitation. Because of that it gives the best functional results.