| 中国东部降水年际变化的随机动力诊断 |
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| 引用本文： | 施晓晖,丁裕国,屠其璞.中国东部降水年际变化的随机动力诊断[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(3):346-351. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施晓晖 丁裕国 屠其璞 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院环境科学系,南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | “九五”青年基金“我国气候异常事件区域形态年际变率及可预报性研究”资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用一个具有门限的非线性随机动力气候模式对中国东部江淮流域的降水进行了分析。结果表明：在不同的门限域中，降水对外部强迫的响应有明显差异，呈现出一定的非线性特征；模式能较好地拟合降水的变化趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 非线性随机动力模式 气候诊断 |
STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC DIAGNOSIS OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EAST CHINA |
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| Shi Xiaohui,Ding Yuguo,Tu Qipu.STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC DIAGNOSIS OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EAST CHINA[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1999,22(3):346-351. |
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| Authors: | Shi Xiaohui Ding Yuguo Tu Qipu |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies a non linear stochastic dynamic model with threshold to analyze the rainfall in the Yangtze and Huaihe river basins of east China.The results show that there are obvious differences of the responses of rainfall to external forcing in different threshold regions,indicating some non linear characters.The model can simulate the variations tendency of the rainfall satisfactorily. |
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| Keywords: | rainfall non linear stochastic dynamic model threshold diagnosis |
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