| Abstract: | Harmful algal blooms are occurring in large river ecosystems and at the mouth of large rivers with increasing frequency. In lentic systems, the chemical and physical conditions that promote harmful algal blooms are somewhat predictable but tracking prevalence and conditions that promote harmful algal blooms in lotic systems is much more difficult. We captured two of the most extreme discharge years within the last 20 years occurring in the Upper Mississippi River, allowing a natural experiment that evaluated how major shifts in discharge drive environmental variation and associated shifts in phytoplankton. Statistical models describing significant environmental covariates for phytoplankton assemblages and specific taxa were developed and used to identify management‐relevant numeric breakpoints at which environmental variables may promote the growth of specific phytoplankton and/or cyanobacteria. Our analyses supported that potentially toxin‐producing cyanobacteria dominate under high phosphorus concentration, low nitrogen concentration, low nitrogen‐to‐phosphorus ratio, low turbulence, low flushing, adequate light and warm temperatures. Cyanobacteria dominated in 2009 when low discharge and low flushing likely led to optimal growth environments for Dolichospermum, Aphanizomenon and Microcystis. Rarely will a single factor lead to the dominance, but multiple positive factors working in concert can lead to cyanobacteria proliferation in large rivers. Certain isolated backwaters with high phosphorus, low nitrogen, warm water temperatures and low potential for flushing could benefit from increased connection to channel inputs to reduce cyanobacterial dominance. Numerous examples of this type of habitat currently exist in the Upper Mississippi River and could benefit from reconnection to channel habitats. |
