A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealing alternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.     

The Precedence Effect in Three Species of Birds (Melopsittacus undulatus, Serinus canaria, and Taeniopygia guttata).

The perceived locations of paired auditory images, simulating direct sounds and their echoes, have been recently studied in budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus; M. L. Dent & R. J. Dooling, 2003a, 2003b). In this article, the authors extend those experiments to include measurements of the precedence effect using a discrimination paradigm in two additional bird species: canaries (Serinus canaria) and zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata). Although time courses of summing localization, localization dominance, and echo thresholds were similar across all species, budgerigars had slightly higher overall levels of discrimination. The results from these experiments add further support that the precedence effect in birds is similar to that found in other animals and that the ability to suppress echoes that might degrade localization and auditory object perception may be a general property of the vertebrate auditory system. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Social dominance mediates the association of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition with risk for substance use disorder.

This investigation determined the influence of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition (ND) on risk for substance use disorder (SUD). Testosterone level during puberty was hypothesized to promote social dominance associated with norm-violating behavior that, in turn, predisposes individuals to use of illicit drugs and, subsequently, SUD. Using a prospective paradigm, the authors recruited 179 boys (mean age=11.62 years, SD=0.88) and followed up when participants were ages 12-14, 16, 19, and 22. Results indicated that social dominance/norm-violating behavior (SD/NVB) at age 16 mediated the association between testosterone level (ages 12-14) and SUD (age 22). In addition, SD/NVB mediated the association between ND and SUD. These findings suggest that development of SUD is influenced by androgen-dependent and neurobehavioral processes via a social motivational style characterized by SD/NVB. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A Detection-Theoretic Model of Echo Inhibition.

A detection-theoretic analysis of the auditory localization of dual-impulse stimuli is described, and a model for the processing of spatial cues in the echo pulse is developed. Although for over 50 years "echo suppression" has been the topic of intense theoretical and empirical study within the hearing sciences, only a rudimentary understanding of its mechanisms has emerged. In this article, psychometric functions and results from matching studies are used in developing a model that specifies the perceived position of the echo pulse as a normal deviate, with an expectation that is a logistic function of the echo delay and a variance that depends on interaural time difference. Loss of information in the echo event is quantified as a decline in the efficiency with which the binaural system receives information from the lag impulse. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hemispheric contributions to nonverbal abstract reasoning and problem solving.

Hemispheric involvement in reasoning abilities has been debated for some time, and it remains unclear whether the right hemisphere's involvement in problem solving is modality specific or dependent on the type of spatial reasoning required. In the current study, 2 types of nonverbal reasoning abilities were examined, spatial reasoning and proportional reasoning, in 109 patients with cerebrovascular disease that was confined to either the right or the left hemisphere or was diffuse in nature. Results indicated that no lateralizing effects were present based on type of spatial reasoning. Findings are consistent with the suggestion that higher order cognitive processes involved in nonverbal abstraction and problem solving are not strongly lateralized to the right hemisphere but rather are more generally distributed throughout the cortex. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Does social dominance generate prejudice? Integrating individual and contextual determinants of intergroup cognitions.

Social dominance orientation (SDO) has been proposed as an important variable in the explanation of prejudice. We distinguish between three conceptualizations of SDO: SDO as a personality trait (personality model), SDO as a moderator of the effects of situational variables (Person X Situation model), and SDO as a mediator of the effect of social position on prejudice (group socialization model [GSM]). Four studies (N = 1,657) looking at the relations between social positions, SDO, and prejudice in a natural setting and in a laboratory setting provide strong support for the GSM. In contrast to previous correlational findings, there is evidence of a cause (dominant social position), an effect (prejudice increases), and a mediator (SDO). These results suggest new perspectives on the integration of individual and contextual determinants of prejudice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

基于Monte Carlo随机模拟的综合交通网络布局评价与决策方法

针对综合交通网络评价指标权重及属性值具有主观性和随机性的特点,提出了基于模拟运算的布局规划方案排序选优的群体随机决策方法.仿真生成满足集结的多个专家对指标重要性偏好排序统计分布的权重,同时考虑交通需求的不确定性对指标值的影响,结合客观熵权计算方案的综合评价值,由多次模拟得到的排序优势度确定方案的优劣差异.根据设计的仿真流程通过算例说明了方法应用的有效性,评价中考虑了主客观因素及随机性特征,可以为网络布局提供科学决策依据.     

一类区间多目标粒子群优化算法

针对区间参数多目标优化问题,提出一种基于模糊支配的多目标粒子群优化算法。首先,定义基于决策者悲观程度的模糊支配关系,用于比较解的优劣;然后,定义一种适于区间目标值的拥挤距离,以更新外部存储器并从中选择领导粒子;最后,对多个区间多目标测试函数进行仿真实验,实验结果验证了所提出算法的有效性。     

基于随机优势关系的区间值信息系统

在区间值信息系统中引入了分布函数,得到了基于随机优势关系的区间值信息系统,构造了区间值信息系统的α-随机优势关系。利用Levy距离,对α-随机优势关系进行了计算,实例说明了方法的有效性。     

非奇异H矩阵的一个判定条件及一类实矩阵逆的无穷范数估计

通过理论证明,给出了判断一个矩阵为H矩阵的实用充分条件及一类实矩阵逆的无穷范数估计公式,并给出数值例子进行了说明.此结果对于判定系统的稳定性、特征值分布、线性方程组迭代解及矩阵范数估计等都具有重要的理论和实际意义.