Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价研究

[目的]根据闽侯县农用地闲置情况,结合当地社会经济及生态环境发展情况,深入分析闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全发展水平。[方法]建立闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价指标体系,分别从农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、外部进入农村投资、农业生产总值、种粮补贴、自然灾害、农业技术水平、农村生物的多样性程度、农村家庭收入结构、农村生态补偿金额、农地的整理规模及环保支出占GDP比重共确定12个指标进行深入研究,运用普通最小二乘法对设计的多元线性回归模型进行回归,进一步对闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平进行评价。[结果]农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、种粮补贴、环保支出占GDP比重、生态补偿金额、生物多样性程度对闽侯县闲置农地生态安全水平起到促进作用,呈正相关趋势;自然灾害则与闲置农地生态安全水平呈负相关趋势。[结论]整体看来,闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平主要受到当地经济、环境及生态基础三大因素的影响。     

Women farmers’ participation in the agricultural research process: implications for agricultural sustainability in Ethiopia

Empowering women farmers to participate in agricultural research is a key strategy for sustainable agricultural development. Women empowerment has the potential to improve their roles in agricultural production while enhancing nutrition and food security. Although new agricultural development policies are focusing on improving women engagement in agriculture, there is limited literature on women empowerment in relation to agricultural research. This study used mixed methods to analyse women farmers’ participation in four stages of the agricultural research process – design, testing, dissemination, monitoring and evaluation. Two hundred and thirty individual interviews with women farmers and 16 focus group discussions with men and women farmers were conducted in four Woredas (districts) of Ethiopia. Quantitative data were analysed using binary and multivariate probit models. Qualitative data were analysed using line-by-line coding. The results showed that several empowerment indicator variables significantly (p?≤?.001) influenced women’s participation in different stages of agricultural research. Specifically, input in production decisions, autonomy in plot management, membership to farmer groups, and ability to speak in public enhanced women’s participation in different stages, in addition to access to information and extension services, education and land size. Cultural norms hindered women’s empowerment and engagement in research. To foster sustainable agriculture development, it’s important to integrate holistic and proactive gender perspectives into research strategies to increase women’s participation in farmer research groups, access information and knowledge, have voice and challenge constraining cultural norms and traditions.     

系统性金融风险的历史考察与防范对策

深入学习习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告，在考察20世纪以来的12次金融危机的基础上，对系统性金融风险发生的根源进行了研究，并结合我国当前系统性金融风险面临的形势，提出了防范系统性金融风险的对策建议。研究表明，将过去100多年引发金融危机的系统性金融风险的根源与我国当前的金融形势进行比较分析，可以发现我国面临的系统性金融风险形势十分严峻，必须在党的领导下，采取打击金融腐败、适当收紧货币政策、完善金融监管体系、维护币值稳定、加强金融科技监管等相关政策来防止系统金融风险的发生。     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.     

粮食安全与农业结构调整水平的协整分析*——以广东省为例

[目的]实现我国粮食安全与农业结构调整之间(即粮食增产和农民增收)关系的协调,较长时间以来是学界、政界关注的重要议题,但定量分析两者之间内在依存关系的研究一直欠缺。[方法]文章采用协整分析及Granger因果关系检验方法,以广东为例,对我国粮食安全(用粮食总产量来衡量)与农业结构调整水平之间的协整性及因果关系进行了研究。[结果]广东粮食总产量与反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标之间均存在长期均衡关系,且农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积对广东粮食总产量影响最大,每下降1%,粮食总产量下降0. 659 548%。短期内,反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标对广东粮食总产量的影响均存在波动,但由短期偏离拉向长期均衡的牵动作用均较弱。Granger因果关系检验表明农业在国民经济中的比重、农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积早期对广东粮食总产量产生单向影响,但影响程度相对较弱。[结论]提出应从农业结构调整以外的因素着手提高我国粮食安全水平,并通过调整农业区域结构去缓解我国粮食供求市场的结构性矛盾。     

Estimating yield curves of the U.S. Treasury securities: An interpolation approach

Following the approach of interpolation, this paper proposes the multiple exponential decay model to fit yield curves for both the U.S. TIPS market and the conventional Treasury security market. Several estimation methods, including the unconstrained/constrained nonlinear minimization, quadratic programming, and the iterative linear least squares, are applied to estimate the unknown parameters according to different curve‐fitting purposes. Comparisons between the proposed model and the alternatives show that the multiple exponential decay successfully (1) adapts to a variety of shapes associated with yield curves, (2) (partially) keeps in line with the economic interpretations of Nelson–Siegel summarized by Diebold and Li ( 2006 ), and (3) dominates the competing models in curve‐fitting performance measured by mean fitted‐price errors over the sample period. In addition, the exact specification of a nonparametric interpolation model is pinned down by applying three statistical tools, which enable us to jointly take into account validity, optimality, and parsimoniousness of the proposed model.     

The scope and scale of the informal food economy of South African urban residential townships: Results of a small-area micro-enterprise census

Growing urbanisation in South Africa is reflected in burgeoning Working class and informal township settlements on the fringes of its major towns and cities. Paired with this is an increasing reliance on cash as the primary means of economic transaction, which has in turn stimulated the growth of micro-enterprise business activities within the township context. This article discusses the findings of an eight-township small-area census which occurred between 2010 and 2013 in Cape Town, Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Durban townships representing 250 000 residents. The researchers were able to establish the scope and scale of informal food and drink retailing in these localities. Of the 10 049 micro-enterprises located in the study, some 3966 (or 39% of the total) trade in food. These include enterprises in primary production, fresh produce retailing, grocery retailing from house and spaza shops, and informal foodservice enterprises. Food is the basis for much township informal business and plays an important role in making food increasingly affordable and locally accessible, and in creating cash employment. The article builds on the knowledge base of the township informal economy role in bolstering food security needs for the marginalised.     

Assessing the contribution of artisanal fisheries to food security: A bio-economic modeling approach

Artisanal fisheries are an important food source in many developing regions. Quantitative bio-economic models are needed that comprehensively assess artisanal fisheries’ contribution to food security. Our model combines standard resource economics theory with the literature on food systems. It explains impacts of environmental variations and market development on output, prices and ultimately food security. The application to the Senegalese purse-seine fishery reveals that total sector rents account for 2% of per capita yearly food expenditures for the coastal inhabitants. We examine the relative importance of main drivers and the vulnerability of different regions. Market development plays a crucial role: The resource is of far greater relevance for remote regions.     

Matching food security and malnutrition indicators: evidence from Southeast Asia

This article aims to understand the relation between household food security and individual undernutrition. The multitude of indicators available raises the question which aspects of food security are captured by the respective indicator. In our analysis, we first assess the relation between the dimensions of food security and households’ socioeconomic characteristics. Second, we examine whether household indicators detect undernutrition in children. Finally, we investigate the role of individual‐specific characteristics for child undernutrition. The analysis is based on a novel data set of 1,200 rural households from Cambodia and Lao PDR, which combines household‐ and individual‐level data. We capture household food security by three indicators including a dietary diversity score, a consumption behavior measure, and an experiential measure. Individual nutrition status is measured via anthropometric indicators. Our results show that different household‐level indicators capture fundamentally different aspects of food security. Moreover, household food security fails to explain stunting for children under five. Dietary diversity indicators, however, explain underweight in children to a small extent. We call for more research on intrahousehold allocation of food and stress the implications of our research for the design and targeting of food and nutrition support programs.