Strategic appraisal of energy models for Mozambique

The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A semi-supervised tool for clustering accounting databases with applications to internal controls

A considerable body of literature attests to the significance of internal controls; however, little is known on how the clustering of accounting databases can function as an internal control procedure. To explore this issue further, this paper puts forward a semi-supervised tool that is based on self-organizing map and the IASB XBRL Taxonomy. The paper validates the proposed tool via a series of experiments on an accounting database provided by a shipping company. Empirical results suggest the tool can cluster accounting databases in homogeneous and well-separated clusters that can be interpreted within an accounting context. Further investigations reveal that the tool can compress a large number of similar transactions, and also provide information comparable to that of financial statements. The findings demonstrate that the tool can be applied to verify the processing of accounting transactions as well as to assess the accuracy of financial statements, and thus supplement internal controls.     

Document clustering using synthetic cluster prototypes

The use of centroids as prototypes for clustering text documents with the k-means family of methods is not always the best choice for representing text clusters due to the high dimensionality, sparsity, and low quality of text data. Especially for the cases where we seek clusters with small number of objects, the use of centroids may lead to poor solutions near the bad initial conditions. To overcome this problem, we propose the idea of synthetic cluster prototype that is computed by first selecting a subset of cluster objects (instances), then computing the representative of these objects and finally selecting important features. In this spirit, we introduce the MedoidKNN synthetic prototype that favors the representation of the dominant class in a cluster. These synthetic cluster prototypes are incorporated into the generic spherical k-means procedure leading to a robust clustering method called k-synthetic prototypes (k-sp). Comparative experimental evaluation demonstrates the robustness of the approach especially for small datasets and clusters overlapping in many dimensions and its superior performance against traditional and subspace clustering methods.     

Experimental evaluation of an open-loop all-optical chaotic communication system

An experimental investigation of the performance of an open-loop optical chaotic communication system has been carried out under different optical injection conditions. The most popular message encoding techniques have been considered, tested and compared at gigabit rates and for different levels of optical injection to the receiver, by bit-error-rate (BER) measurements. Different low-pass electrical filters have been implemented for the various message bit-rates tested, in order to employ the most appropriate one for message decoding. The best performance of all the examined encryption methods for messages of 1.5 Gb/s bit-rate emerged for the chaos modulation encryption method and was characterized by Q-factor values up to 5.1, after synchronizing in the strong injection regime, while the corresponding BER of the decoded message was as low as 7/spl middot/10/sup -5/. In order to confirm the secure encryption of the message, BER measurements are also performed for the chaotic carrier into which the message is encrypted.     

Improved solution methods for inelastic rate problems

The objective of the paper is an assessment of the incremental solution methods for the analysis of inelastic rate problems. In particular, the possibilities of the initial load method are explored to improve the accuracy and stability of the traditional explicit operators by higher-order time expansions and implicit weighting schemes.The convergence limitations are examined for different classes of inelastic growth laws (viscous flow, viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity) which restrict the time step because of the iterative solution of the implicit algorithm. The range and rate of convergence of the initial load method (constant stiffness predictor-corrector iteration) is enlarged by tangential gradient techniques which account for the inelastic response in the structural stiffness matrix. In this way the time step restriction disappears although at a considerable increase of computational expense because of the costly computation and decomposition of structural gradients within each iteration cycle (Newton-Raphson methods).As compared to the linear single-step methods, the cubic Hermitian time expansions furnish far better accuracy than the traditional linear expansions for very little increase of computational cost. Stability and convergence limits correspond to those of the lower-order operators, whereby the implicit midstep of backward weighting schemes are most advantageous. In this context it is worth noting that aging or strain-hardening effects in the inelastic growth law reduce dramatically the time step restrictions of the iterative initial load solution methods (predictor-corrector schemes), as compared to the simplest creep model in which the inelastic growth law depends only on stress, e.g. for viscous flow and viscoplasticity.     

Finite elements in time and space

The idea of finite element discretisation is applied to time dependent phenomena. Hamilton's principle is used as a suitable variational statement which means that the time is discretised into a set of finite elements which are taken to be the same for all structural elements. The method is introduced for the unidimensional case and thereafter generalised for multidegree of freedom systems. The use of arbitrary time elements is outlined.

The method appears particularly suitable for the investigation of time dependent dynamic phenomena without prior deduction of the natural modes and frequencies. Linear as well as nonlinear phenomena may be analysed.     

Feedback Phase in Optically Generated Chaos: A Secret Key for Cryptographic Applications

The feedback phase in a chaotic system consisting of a semiconductor laser subject to delayed optical feedback is considered for the first time as a secret key for secure chaotic communications not exclusively based on hardware uniqueness. Extensive numerical simulations illustrate that the feedback phase is of extreme importance as far as synchronization is concerned. The ability of an eavesdropper to attack the intensity-modulated message when a pseudorandom variation of the feedback phase is imposed at the transmitter's side is numerically quantified by bit-error-rate calculations. The analysis demonstrates that the eavesdropper is not able to synchronize and hence to extract the message when he is not aware of the phase variations even if he is equipped with an identical chaotic device.     

Fair digital signing: The structural reliability of signed documents

The exchange of digitally signed data inherits all the problems related to the indeterminacy of human communication, which are further intensified by the legal implications of signing. One of the fundamental intrinsic weaknesses of digital signatures is that the signer creates a signature on a series of bits, which may be differently transformed and perceived by the verifier (or relying party), due to the inevitable differences in the intention and the purpose of the two agents. As a result, syntactic and semantic distance is introduced between a signer and a relying party. In this paper we suggest a framework that models the process of digital signing, using several virtual and interrelated levels of communication, thereby promoting the analytic and synthetic exploration of the entities and the transformations involved. Based on this exploration, it is possible to indicate the favorable conditions for mutual understanding between the signer and the relying party. We focus on the syntactic and presentation levels of the communication process and we introduce the notion of structural reliability of a syntactic component, as a measure of how securely and accurately a signed document can be used. It is argued that structural reliability depends on a quantitative metric, such as the structural informativeness along with other qualitative characteristics of the syntactic component. The structural reliability of several document representation protocols is evaluated and it is concluded that the higher the informativeness of the protocol, the less the semantic distance produced, provided that the communicating parties have the capacity to handle this protocol.     

Polyurethanes from 4,4′‐diphenylmethane diisocyanate and poly(ethylene glycol)s. II. Crystallographic data,heats of melting and crystallization,thermal stability,crystallinity and density

Wide‐angle X‐ray scattering analysis, heats of melting, crystallization and re‐melting, thermogravimetric analysis and density measurements have been used to study the crystallographic data and degree of crystallinity of linear polyurethanes (PUs) prepared by the polymerization of 4,4′‐diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI) with poly(ethylene glycol)s (PEGs) of various number‐average molecular weights (M_ns) (106, 200, 400, 1000, 2000 and 4000 g mol^?1) in equivalent molar ratios. The crystallinities of polyurethanes PU1000 to PU4000 are shown to be due to the polyoxyethylene segments of the PEGs, while PU400 and PU200 appeared to be amorphous. However, PU106, similarly prepared from diethylene glycol (PEG106), is highly crystalline with a different crystal structure. Thermogravimetric analysis of PU106, PU400 and PU1000 exhibited high thermal stabilities up to 260 °C for these materials under the conditions of measurement (10 °C min^?1). The heat of melting for the 100 % crystalline structure of PU106 has been indirectly obtained. Copyright © 2004 Society of Chemical Industry