COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Transrectal electrostimulation therapy for neuropathic bowel dysfunction in children with myelomeningocele

PURPOSE: We attempted to evaluate the efficacy of transrectal bowel stimulation for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in children with myelodysplasia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily sessions of transrectal electrostimulation were performed on an outpatient basis for 2 to 3 weeks on children with myelodysplasia and stool incontinence. If benefits were noted, 5 to 10 additional daily sessions were performed. Complete success was defined as improvement in all parameters of interest, including decrease in the frequency of daily bowel movements, increased sensation, increased ability to hold stool and a significant subjective change in bowel habits. Moderate success implied improvement in 1 to 3 parameters and treatment failure was defined as lack of improvement in any parameter. RESULTS: A total of 55 children 2 to 14 years old (mean age 6.7) completed a mean of 18 daily sessions per patient of bowel electrostimulation. Followup ranged from 1 to 6 years. Diapers are no longer required due to defecation problems in 14 children older than 3 years. Complete success was achieved in 20 cases (36.3%) and moderate success in an additional 30 (54.5%, overall success rate 90.8%). Specifically, 89% of the patients reported elimination of stooling accidents, 82% reported increased sensation and 71% were able to hold the bowel movement. Overall 68% of the patients noticed significantly improved bowel function. Complete/moderate success of transrectal electro-stimulation was statistically significant for all 4 parameters (p < 0.05), and complete success was significant for increased sensation, ability to hold and episodes of accidents. Therapy failed in 5 children (9%). There were no untoward effects. CONCLUSIONS: Transrectal electrostimulation is a well tolerated and minimally invasive modality that provides sustainable improvement in stool continence in children with myelomeningocele and neuropathic bowel dysfunction.     

The relative contribution of selected carpal bones to global wrist motion during simulated planar and out-of-plane wrist motion

The present study assesses the endocrinological, endometrial histology and vaginal ultrasound profiles of nomegestrol acetate subdermal implant users at varying times after insertion. Follicle stimulatory hormone, luteinizing hormone, oestradiol, progesterone, vaginal ultrasound assessment of the ovaries and the histological dating of the endometrium were serially assessed for a period of 50 days immediately after the insertion, and after at 6 months and 12 months of use. The endocrinological results of this prospective observational clinical trial indicated that 75% of the cycles across the study period in Uniplant users were anovulatory, 63% showing development of a persistent non-luteinized follicle. Anovulatory cycles devoid of follicular development were seen primarily in the first months after Uniplant insertion. Ovulatory cycles represented 25% of the Uniplant cycles. Inadequate luteal phase or disregulation of follicular growth was a common feature of ovulatory cycles. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the contraceptive mechanisms of a single nomegestrol acetate subdermal implant involve prevention of follicular growth, development of a persistent non-luteinized follicle, inadequate luteal phase and disruption of the endometrial architecture.     

Nonlinear superposition in saturation recording of disk media

The magnetic readback signal is generally assumed to be made up of linearly superposed single transition responses. As the transition spacing is reduced, this property is seen not to hold, With particulate disks, we find the head signal can be reconstructed as a linear superposition of variably spaced individual transitions, while with cobalt alloy film disks, both the spacing and the amplitude of individual transitions vary as a function of the data. This behavior is interpreted by a self consistent 2D recording model, linear superposition improves dramatically with lowM_{r}tdisk media.     

Traveling-wave amplifiers with prescribed frequency response

Microwave transistor amplifier combinations that have controlled frequency response over a specified bandwidth were designed. Theoretical analysis of such an amplifier with an arbitrary number of sections is presented. The response of the amplifier is controlled by tapering the frequency selectivity or Q of each section of the amplifier. To verify the theory, a three-section amplifier with maximally flat time delay response was designed, constructed, and evaluated. Existing traveling-wave amplifiers were modeled as lossy transmission lines. Although the amplifiers were relatively broadband, a prescribed frequency response was not achieved, and each transistor did not receive an equal portion of the signal power. Resistive elements were required for impedance matching at the input and output. The design seeks to improve on previous techniques by trading bandwidth for controlled gain. By making the transmission line that connects the amplifier sections nonuniform, the frequency response was controlled over the design bandwidth. The designs can easily be implemented using familiar components