技术嵌入与数字化商业模式创新——基于飞贷金融科技的案例研究

随着数字技术的快速发展,数字化商业模式创新成为企业竞争的利器,而技术嵌入是企业内化数字技术支撑数字化商业模式创新的重要策略.本文基于飞贷金融科技的创新实践开展纵向案例研究,探究技术嵌入对数字化商业模式创新的影响.研究发现:技术嵌入包含技术整合和技术开发,两种策略在企业发展过程中经历了不同形式的演变.其中,拼凑式技术整合更有利于商业模式要素创新,而协奏式技术整合更有利于商业模式架构创新.利用式技术开发更有利于商业模式渐进创新,而探索式技术开发更有利于商业模式颠覆创新.最终,案例企业的数字化商业模式呈现出一条"流程信息化→渠道平台化→产品数字化→技术产品化"的进阶式演化路径,数字化程度相应呈现"类抛物线"的演变规律.本研究丰富了数字化商业模式创新的相关理论,并为科技型企业构建数字化商业模式提供了实践启示.     

Controlling type 1 error rate for sequential,bioequivalence studies with crossover designs

Sample size reestimation in a crossover, bioequivalence study can be a useful adaptive design tool, particularly when the intrasubject variability of the drug formulation under investigation is not well understood. When sample size reestimation is done based on an interim estimate of the intrasubject variability and bioequivalence is tested using the pooled estimate of intrasubject variability, type 1 error inflation will occur. Type 1 error inflation is caused by the pooled estimate being a biased estimator of the intrasubject variability. The type 1 error inflation and bias of the pooled estimator of variability are well characterized in the setting of a two‐arm, parallel study. The purpose of this work is to extend this characterization to the setting of a crossover, bioequivalence study with sample size reestimation and to propose an estimator of the intrasubject variability that will prevent type 1 error inflation.     

Effects of mediator competence and mediation process on user satisfaction with child custody,finances, and property outcomes

This study draws on survey data from 205 family mediation service users concerning their satisfaction with the outcomes of mediation to address two research questions: (a) how satisfied are service users? and (b) what factors account for users' satisfaction with the outcome of child custody arrangements and the allocation of finances and property? Overall, users' level of satisfaction with outcomes was high. While the mediation process explained a significant variance in satisfaction with the outcomes for child custody and for finances and property, the mediator's perceived professional competence did not predict user satisfaction with the outcomes for either issue. This study contributes to our knowledge on the significance of mediators' process skill, specifically their calm and clear responses to the socioemotional needs of the mediated parties, on the service outcomes for both types of dispute. The implications for mediation training are discussed.     

长征时期我党关于民族问题探索的历史演变与现实启示

中国工农红军长征时期，党高度重视民族问题，制定和实施了一系列符合中国革命和民族实际的民族纲领政策，开创了一条运用马克思主义民族理论解决中国民族问题的探索之路。中国共产党早期的民族纲领与民族政策主张是从马克思列宁主义关于民族独立、民族分离、建立联邦或区域自治等方面去阐释。随着我国革命形势的发展变化，党已认识到民族独立或联邦制并不符合中国的国情，不主张民族自决和实行联邦制，并最终确认了在统一的国家中实行民族区域自治的政策。认真分析长征时期党民族理论政策的发展演变进程，对新时期科学总结党民族工作经验和指导民族工作实践，不断发展和完善中国特色社会主义民族理论体系，实现中华民族伟大复兴具有重要意义。     

Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Human factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow-ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business process management. In addition, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian Network are integrated into MAMAC to form a comprehensive dynamic human factors analysis model characterized by flexibility and uncertainty handling. The proposed model is tested on maritime accident scenarios from a sand carrier accident database in China to investigate the human factors involved, and the top 10 most highly contributing primary events associated with the human factors leading to sand carrier accidents are identified. According to the results of this study, direct human factors, classified as unsafe acts, are not a focus for maritime investigators and scholars. Meanwhile, unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are listed as the top two considerations for human factors analysis, especially for supervision failures of shipping companies and ship owners. Moreover, potential safety countermeasures for the most highly contributing human factors are proposed in this article. Finally, an application of the proposed model verifies its advantages in calculating the failure probability of accidents induced by human factors.     

十八大以来有关党的建设的新思想和新观点

党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为总书记的党中央高度重视、全面推进党的建设。坚持党要管党、从严治党,以作风建设为突破口,围绕党的思想建设、组织建设、作风建设、反腐倡廉建设和制度建设等提出了一系列新思想、新观点和新要求。对于进一步丰富马克思主义建党学说,全面提高党的建设科学化水平提供了思想指导和行动指南。     

Training Intraverbal Naming to Establish Matching-to-Sample Performances

The current study evaluated whether training intraverbal naming would be sufficient to establish visual-visual matching-to-sample (MTS) performances in college students. In the first experiment, we used a multiple-probe design across stimulus sets to assess whether six participants could match arbitrary visual stimuli (AB) after learning to tact their two experimentally defined classes (A’ and B’) and then intraverbally relate their names (i.e., “A’ goes with B’”). All participants matched the stimuli accurately after training, as well as emitted the trained intraverbals. In the second experiment, we used a multiple baseline design across four participants to assess whether the same training would produce bi-directional intraverbals in the form of “B’ goes with A’,” and MTS performance consistent with symmetry (BA). All participants responded accurately during matching and intraverbal tests. Across both experiments, participants stated the trained intraverbals while performing the matching task. Results showed that MTS performance can be established solely by verbal behavior training.     

新常态下我国城市展览业发展的创新研究

展览业的发展一直是社会关注的热点,随着新常态的提出,城市展览业的发展也呈现出新常态。本文基于我国城市展览业发展的现状特点,提出在新常态背景下城市展览业发展的创新对策,以期为新时期下城市展览业的可持续发展提供一定的战略指导。     

Let's Call it Quits: Break‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks

“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even point on the decision to cease an RA. An important mediating factor was the individual's historical long‐term performance. Those with a more profitable trading history were less affected by a fall in cash balance below the break‐even point compared to those who had been less profitable. We observe that break‐even points play an important role in the decision of nonpathological risk takers to stop RAs. It is possible, therefore, that these nonpathological cognitive processes, when occurring in extrema, may result in pathological gambling behavior such as “chasing.” Our data set focuses on RAs in financial markets and, consequently, we discuss the implications for institutions and regulators in the effective management of risk taking in markets. We also suggest that there may be a need to consider carefully the nature and role of “break‐even points” associated with a broader range of nonfinancially‐focused risk‐taking activities, such as smoking and substance abuse.