浅谈胡锦涛的公平正义观

胡锦涛公平正义观包括公平正义的概念、标准、内容,公平与社会主义的关系、公平与中国共产党的关系、公平与效率的关系、公平正义实现的七个方面内容。胡锦涛认为,公平正义包括基本含义、特指含义、效果要求三方面含义;衡量社会主义公平正义的标准是共同富裕;公平正义的内容包括权利公平、机会公平、规则公平、分配公平、环境公平、国际公平;维护和实现社会的公平正义是我国社会主义制度的本质要求,是中国特色社会主义的内在要求;实现社会公平正义是中国共产党人的一贯主张,维护和实现社会的公平正义,关键在党;效率优先,兼顾公平,要把维护社会公平放到更加突出的位置;实现社会公平正义,机制制度建设是根本保证。     

Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Human factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow-ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business process management. In addition, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian Network are integrated into MAMAC to form a comprehensive dynamic human factors analysis model characterized by flexibility and uncertainty handling. The proposed model is tested on maritime accident scenarios from a sand carrier accident database in China to investigate the human factors involved, and the top 10 most highly contributing primary events associated with the human factors leading to sand carrier accidents are identified. According to the results of this study, direct human factors, classified as unsafe acts, are not a focus for maritime investigators and scholars. Meanwhile, unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are listed as the top two considerations for human factors analysis, especially for supervision failures of shipping companies and ship owners. Moreover, potential safety countermeasures for the most highly contributing human factors are proposed in this article. Finally, an application of the proposed model verifies its advantages in calculating the failure probability of accidents induced by human factors.     

大学生课堂使用手机的实证研究 ——基于南充市三所高校的调查

大学生课堂上玩手机已成为较为普遍的现象。通过对南充三所高校750名大学生进行实证研究，了解大学生课堂使用 手机的频率、不同课程类型使用率、态度等，分析其原因，揭示大学生使用手机给课堂带来的双面影响，在此基础上提出针对性 措施：引导学生进行正确的自我归因，增强主动性；课堂管理松弛有度，实施必要的教学改革；发挥智能手机辅助教学的作用。     

合作社带动农村产业融合的政策、动力与实现机制

推进农村产业融合是发展现代农业的必由之路,而探讨以合作社为载体的农村内生性产业融合模式,对于提升农业产出效率、繁荣农村经济和促进乡村振兴具有重要意义和价值。通过对改革开放以来合作社带动产业融合相关政策的梳理发现,合作社依次经历了初期起步及产业破壁阶段、快速发展与农业产业化阶段、发展壮大与带动农村一二三产业融合阶段。在具体实践中,农业多功能开发、小农户与现代农业衔接、经济良性循环、跨界经营等需求都对合作社带动农村产业融合提供了现实动力,合作社也展现出了资源整合、社会服务和公信力增强等优势,并探索形成了农业内部技术融合、纵向一体化经营融合、现代农业与旅游业融合、农业生态旅游和文化创意产业融合模式。针对目前合作社所面临的规模小、资金少、创意不足等问题,建议从鼓励合作社向综合和联合方向发展、改善合作社融资渠道、挖掘当地特色文化等方面着手构建合作社带动农村产业融合的实现机制。     

试论民族社区文化旅游开发的若干原则

在进行民族社区的文化旅游开发时,应该坚持以民族社区居民为本的宗旨,以实现民族社区的人口、经济和社会的协调发展.为此,在进行民族社区文化旅游开发时,必须坚持社区文化建设原则,居民参与原则,普遍受益原则,以及伦理原则.这四项原则既直接关系到民族社区文化旅游开发能否持续进行,也关系到民族社区文化旅游开发能否最终促进民族社区的可持续发展.     

Two new estimators for the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple test

In multiple hypothesis test, an important problem is estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses. Existing methods are mainly based on the p-values of the single tests. In this paper, we propose two new estimations for this proportion. One is a natural extension of the commonly used methods based on p-values and the other is based on a mixed distribution. Simulations show that the first method is comparable with existing methods and performs better under some cases. And the method based on a mixed distribution can get accurate estimators even if the variance of data is large or the difference between the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis is very small.     

农村养老服务供给侧改革的研究理路与实现方式

农村养老服务是国家和社会为了满足农村老年人的基本生活需求而为其提供的经济供养、生活照料、医疗卫生护理及精神慰藉等服务的总称.伴随人口老龄化进程的加快,农村养老服务需求日益增加,并因农村老年群体分异而出现了需求分化现象,但从农村养老服务供给结构的布局上看,无论是供给内容、供给主体还是供给模式都不能有效满足农村老年人的养老需求,存在着供需失衡的结构性困境.为推进农村养老服务供给侧改革,可从坚持政府的核心供给地位、引导社会组织参与提供养老服务、激发市场供给的活力和鼓励家庭养老的优先供给四个方面做文章.     

上海经济社会发展与养老服务事业:挑战与对策

着眼于经济社会发展与养老服务事业之间的关系,应从经济增长速度减缓、外来人口迅速增加、经济结构转型升级、城市空间功能调整等方面,探讨上海当前及今后一段时期养老服务所面临的主要挑战与问题。上海需要在政府引导下着力构建和完善政府、市场、社会多方参与、分工合作的养老服务体系,具体包括促进养老公共资源配置的均衡化、大力发展老年服务产业、推进不同层次养老保障制度之间的有效衔接、积极提高上海养老服务的社会化水平等。     

基于GIS应用的民族理论与政策研究方法探讨

中国民族理论与民族政策研究是中国政治生活中的大事件，其研究方法如何对研究成果的产出有关键性的影响。GIS是一种新的研究方法，具有对空间数据的获取、存储、分析、可视化等应用功能。国外已经开始把GIS运用于社会科学领域，近年来更加重视它的应用与开发。     

THEORIES OF RISK: TESTING INVESTOR BEHAVIOR ON THE TAIWAN STOCK AND STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS

This article considers four utility functions—concave, convex, S‐shaped, and reverse S‐shaped—to analyze the behavior of different types of investors on the Taiwan stock index and its corresponding index futures. Using stochastic dominance (SD) rules, we show that the existence of all four investor types is plausible. Risk averters prefer spot to futures, whereas risk seekers prefer futures to spot. Investors with S‐shaped utility functions prefer spot (futures) to futures (spot) when markets move upward (downward). Investors with reverse S‐shaped utility functions prefer futures (spot) to spot (futures) when markets move upward (downward). We show that both spot and futures markets can exist when only risk averters are present, but futures can dominate spot only if there is some risk‐seeking behavior. These results are robust with respect to subperiods, spot returns including dividends, and diversification. (JEL C14, G12, G15)