Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Dietary overlap of snow leopard and other carnivores in the Pamirs of Northwestern China

Information about competition between carnivore species for food within high altitude regions is limited.Data collected from the Taxkorgan Nature Reserve,China revealed important interactions between snow leopard(Panthera uncia),grey wolf(Canis lupus),red fox(Vulpes vulpes)and their prey species,including domestic livestock.Sixty-four line transects were conducted in order to identify field signs of habitat occupancy and collect scats for diet analysis.High dietary overlap was observed between all three carnivore species:snow leopard and red fox(Pianka’s index=0.96),red fox and grey wolf(Pianka’s index=0.90),snow leopard and grey wolf(Pianka’s index=0.87).Snow leopard and grey wolf showed significant predation on livestock(36.8%for snow leopard and 29.4%for grey wolf in diet composition).As a pioneering exploration of the endangered snow leopard and its relationship with other species within the alpine ecosystem under livestock grazing pressure,this study contributes a greater understanding of the relationship within carnivore guild in the Pamirs whilst providing implications for conservation planning and project implementation activities in China.     

Geopolitical risk and global financial cycle: Some forecasting experiments

In this study, we investigate the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and global financial cycle (GFCy) as well as whether the former has predictive value for the out-of-sample predictability of the latter. We utilize both the historical and recent GPR data and their variants, namely, GPR act covering all “acts” that constitute GPR such as war, nuclear invasion and terrorism, and GPR threat, which represents threats of these acts. We construct a predictive model that accommodates the salient features of the predicted and predictor series while the forecast evaluation is conducted for both in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Our findings reveal that a rise in GPR discourages investments in risky assets and by implication worsens GFCy. The impact is more severe after the global financial crisis (gfc), and the GPR threat exerts more adverse effect on GFCy compared with GPR act regardless of whether historical GPR or recent GPR is used. Meanwhile, the predictive model of GFCy that accommodates the GPR data outperforms the benchmark model that ignores it both in the in-sample and out-of-sample estimates albeit with improved forecast performance during the post-gfc period and at a longer forecast horizon. However, the recent GPR data, which are broader in scope, offer better forecast accuracy than the historical GPR data. Additional analyses involving the vulnerability of global economic conditions reveal similar outcomes as GFCy.     

A tale of tails: deciphering the contribution of terminal tails to the biochemical properties of two Dps proteins from Streptomyces coelicolor

Dps proteins are members of an extensive family of proteins that oxidise and deposit iron in the form of ferric oxide, and are also able to bind DNA. Ferroxidation centres are formed at the interface of anti-parallel dimers, which further assemble into dodecameric nanocages with a hollow core where ferric oxide is deposited. Streptomyces coelicolor encodes three Dps-like proteins (DpsA, B and C). Despite sharing the conserved four-helix bundle organisation observed in members of the Dps family, they display significant differences in the length of terminal extensions, or tails. DpsA possess both N- and C-terminal tails of different lengths, and their removal affects quaternary structure assembly to varying degrees. DpsC quaternary structure, on the other hand, is heavily dependent on its N-terminal tail as its removal abolishes correct protein folding. Analysis of the crystal structure of dodecamers from both proteins revealed remarkable differences in the position of tails and interface surface area; and provides insight to explain the differences in biochemical behaviour observed while comparing DpsA and DpsC.     

Heterogeneous Forecast Adjustment

There is ample empirical evidence that expert‐adjusted model forecasts can be improved. One way to potential improvement concerns providing various forms of feedback to the sales forecasters. It is also often recognized that the experts (forecasters) might not constitute a homogeneous group. This paper provides a data‐based methodology to discern latent clusters of forecasters, and applies it to a fully new large database with data on expert‐adjusted forecasts, model forecasts and realizations. For the data at hand, two clusters can clearly be identified. Next, the consequences of having clusters are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从服务中心到战略推动者:香港中文大学信息化建设的未来展望

香港中文大学历经半个世纪风雨,如今已发展成为世界知名研究型大学.与此同时,计算机和网络技术的日新月异,极大地改变着人们的生活、学习、工作和社交模式,也给大学提出了源源不断的新挑战.如今,IT已不再是实验室里高高在上的尖端科技,而是维持社会正常运作的基础设施和服务,并且拥有着巨大的潜力给生活带来更多的智慧.作为高等教育的IT部门,如何应对这业务格局的转变,如何了解和满足用户日益提升的服务需求,如何发挥IT技术的价值以推动大学战略发展,都是我们应当考虑的问题.本文将介绍香港中文大学的信息化管理与发展现状,讨论当前遇到的问题并分析应对方法,探索为实现大学信息化战略推动者之愿景应选择的未来道路.     

Generalised Estimators for Seasonal Forecasting by Combining Grouping with Shrinkage Approaches

In this paper, generalised estimators are proposed to estimate seasonal indices for certain forms of additive and mixed seasonality. The estimators combine one of two group seasonal indices methods—Dalhart's group method and Withycombe's group method—with a shrinkage method in different ways. Optimal shrinkage parameters are derived to maximise the performance of the estimators. Then, the generalised estimators, with the optimal shrinkage parameters, are evaluated based on forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the effects of three factors are examined, namely, the length of data history, variance of random components and the number of series. Finally, a simulation experiment is conducted to support the evaluation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

超冷的水

又发现了两种新水。要是没有水，我们原本不会来到这个世界。水的热容量在-45℃时应该变成无穷大。水的其它特性似乎也变得一团糟，就像水经历了某种灾变一样，为什么？如果想象在太平洋之下11公里处的马里亚那海沟中即在海洋最深之处的高压之下，人还能生活，便会看到这是一个寂静的、永远黑暗的世界，压力高达1000个大气压。那是一座相当于洋底每平方米承受1000吨压力的海水之增。在如此恶劣的条件下，生存必定不易。然而现在有些物理学家相信在这样高的压力下甚至水本身可能也难于保持不变。他们认为如果在以上压力下水若能保持不变即仍…     

On a dynamic mixture GARCH model

This paper proposes a new mixture GARCH model with a dynamic mixture proportion. The mixture Gaussian distribution of the error can vary from time to time. The Bayesian Information Criterion and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the number of parameters as well as the model parameters and their standard errors. The new model is applied to the S&P500 Index and Hang Seng Index and compared with GARCH models with Gaussian error and Student's t error. The result shows that the IGARCH effect in these index returns could be the result of the mixture of one stationary volatility component with another non‐stationary volatility component. The VaR based on the new model performs better than traditional GARCH‐based VaRs, especially in unstable stock markets. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.