A nonparametric method for asymmetrically extending signal extraction filters

Two important problems in the X‐11 seasonal adjustment methodology are the construction of standard errors and the handling of the boundaries. We adapt the ‘implied model approach’ of Kaiser and Maravall to achieve both objectives in a nonparametric fashion. The frequency response function of an X‐11 linear filter is used, together with the periodogram of the differenced data, to define spectral density estimates for signal and noise. These spectra are then used to define a matrix smoother, which in turn generates an estimate of the signal that is linear in the data. Estimates of the signal are provided at all time points in the sample, and the associated time‐varying signal extraction mean squared errors are a by‐product of the matrix smoother theory. After explaining our method, it is applied to popular nonparametric filters such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP), the Henderson trend, and ideal low‐pass and band‐pass filters, as well as X‐11 seasonal adjustment, trend, and irregular filters. Finally, we illustrate the method on several time series and provide comparisons with X‐12‐ARIMA seasonal adjustments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acid-base balance in artificially respired guinea-pigs under normal conditions and during exposure to hyperbaric helium

Zusammenfassung Säure-Basen-Werte von Meerschweinchen (Cavia porcellus L.) wurden unter künstlicher Atmung bei normalem Druck und bei Druck von 19.2 Atm. gemessen und festgestellt, dass künstliche Atmung unter erhöhtem Druck normale Säure-Basen-Gleichgewichte gewährleistet, während die Säure-Basen-Werte normaler Tiere mit denjenigen der Literatur nicht übereinstimmten.     

When are Direct Multi‐step and Iterative Forecasts Identical?

Although both direct multi‐step‐ahead forecasting and iterated one‐step‐ahead forecasting are two popular methods for predicting future values of a time series, it is not clear that the direct method is superior in practice, even though from a theoretical perspective it has lower mean squared error (MSE). A given model can be fitted according to either a multi‐step or a one‐step forecast error criterion, and we show here that discrepancies in performance between direct and iterative forecasting arise chiefly from the method of fitting, and is dictated by the nuances of the model's misspecification. We derive new formulas for quantifying iterative forecast MSE, and present a new approach for assessing asymptotic forecast MSE. Finally, the direct and iterative methods are compared on a retail series, which illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011

Chemical ozone destruction occurs over both polar regions in local winter-spring. In the Antarctic, essentially complete removal of lower-stratospheric ozone currently results in an ozone hole every year, whereas in the Arctic, ozone loss is highly variable and has until now been much more limited. Here we demonstrate that chemical ozone destruction over the Arctic in early 2011 was--for the first time in the observational record--comparable to that in the Antarctic ozone hole. Unusually long-lasting cold conditions in the Arctic lower stratosphere led to persistent enhancement in ozone-destroying forms of chlorine and to unprecedented ozone loss, which exceeded 80 per cent over 18-20 kilometres altitude. Our results show that Arctic ozone holes are possible even with temperatures much milder than those in the Antarctic. We cannot at present predict when such severe Arctic ozone depletion may be matched or exceeded.     

Interplay of electron-lattice interactions and superconductivity in superconductivity in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+delta

Formation of electron pairs is essential to superconductivity. For conventional superconductors, tunnelling spectroscopy has established that pairing is mediated by bosonic modes (phonons); a peak in the second derivative of tunnel current d2I/dV2 corresponds to each phonon mode. For high-transition-temperature (high-T(c)) superconductivity, however, no boson mediating electron pairing has been identified. One explanation could be that electron pair formation and related electron-boson interactions are heterogeneous at the atomic scale and therefore challenging to characterize. However, with the latest advances in d2I/dV2 spectroscopy using scanning tunnelling microscopy, it has become possible to study bosonic modes directly at the atomic scale. Here we report d2I/dV2 imaging studies of the high-T(c) superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+delta. We find intense disorder of electron-boson interaction energies at the nanometre scale, along with the expected modulations in d2I/dV2 (refs 9, 10). Changing the density of holes has minimal effects on both the average mode energies and the modulations, indicating that the bosonic modes are unrelated to electronic or magnetic structure. Instead, the modes appear to be local lattice vibrations, as substitution of 18O for 16O throughout the material reduces the average mode energy by approximately 6 per cent--the expected effect of this isotope substitution on lattice vibration frequencies. Significantly, the mode energies are always spatially anticorrelated with the superconducting pairing-gap energies, suggesting an interplay between these lattice vibration modes and the superconductivity.     

How Cooper pairs vanish approaching the Mott insulator in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+delta

The antiferromagnetic ground state of copper oxide Mott insulators is achieved by localizing an electron at each copper atom in real space (r-space). Removing a small fraction of these electrons (hole doping) transforms this system into a superconducting fluid of delocalized Cooper pairs in momentum space (k-space). During this transformation, two distinctive classes of electronic excitations appear. At high energies, the mysterious 'pseudogap' excitations are found, whereas, at lower energies, Bogoliubov quasi-particles-the excitations resulting from the breaking of Cooper pairs-should exist. To explore this transformation, and to identify the two excitation types, we have imaged the electronic structure of Bi(2)Sr(2)CaCu(2)O(8+delta) in r-space and k-space simultaneously. We find that although the low-energy excitations are indeed Bogoliubov quasi-particles, they occupy only a restricted region of k-space that shrinks rapidly with diminishing hole density. Concomitantly, spectral weight is transferred to higher energy r-space states that lack the characteristics of excitations from delocalized Cooper pairs. Instead, these states break translational and rotational symmetries locally at the atomic scale in an energy-independent way. We demonstrate that these unusual r-space excitations are, in fact, the pseudogap states. Thus, as the Mott insulating state is approached by decreasing the hole density, the delocalized Cooper pairs vanish from k-space, to be replaced by locally translational- and rotational-symmetry-breaking pseudogap states in r-space.     

Colligative properties of anomalous water

Investigations of the phase behaviour on freezing and subsequent melting and of other properties indicate that anomalous water is a solution containing a fixed amount of relatively involatile material in normal water. There seems to be no need to postulate the existence of a new polymer of water in such solutions. If only water and silica are present, the properties are consistent with those of a silicic acid gel.