Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intracellular cytoskeletal elements and cytoskeletons in bacteria

Within a short period of time after the discovery of bacterial cytoskletons, major progress had been made in areas such as general spatial layout of cytoskeletons, their involvement in a variety of cellfunctions (shape control, cell division, chromosome segregation, cell motility). This progress was achieved by application of advanced investigation techniques. Homologs of eukaryotic actin, tubulin, and intermediate filaments were found in bacteria; cytoskeletal proteins not closely or not at all related to any of these major cytoskeletal proteins were discovered in a number of bacteria such as Mycoplasmas, Spiroplasmas, Spirochetes, Treponema, Caulobacter. A structural role for bacterial elongation factor Tu was indicated. On the basis of this new thinking, new approaches in biotechnology and new drugs are on the way.