Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Hatch success and temperature-dependent development time in two broadly distributed topminnows (Fundulidae)

Metabolic scaling laws predict a variety of emergent properties of biological systems based on relationships among temperature, body size, and rates of physiological processes. These models have been criticized as being overly simplistic and not accounting for directional variability arising from evolutionary tradeoffs. I measured hatch success and egg development time at six temperatures for 12 populations throughout the latitudinal range of two broadly distributed topminnows (Fundulus). I asked if hatch success and development time differed between the species and northern and southern populations. Hatch success reaction norms suggested that the more broadly (and northern) distributed Fundulus notatus was more eurythermic with a lower optima and broader performance breadth than Fundulus olivaceus. Temperature explained most variability in mass-corrected development time. Development time differed between the species, but not northern and southern populations. Deviations from predictions of universal scaling laws were most pronounced away from specie's thermal optima.     

Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

A fungal perspective on conservation biology

Hitherto fungi have rarely been considered in conservation biology, but this is changing as the field moves from addressing single species issues to an integrative ecosystem‐based approach. The current emphasis on biodiversity as a provider of ecosystem services throws the spotlight on the vast diversity of fungi, their crucial roles in terrestrial ecosystems, and the benefits of considering fungi in concert with animals and plants. We reviewed the role of fungi in ecosystems and composed an overview of the current state of conservation of fungi. There are 5 areas in which fungi can be readily integrated into conservation: as providers of habitats and processes important for other organisms; as indicators of desired or undesired trends in ecosystem functioning; as indicators of habitats of conservation value; as providers of powerful links between human societies and the natural world because of their value as food, medicine, and biotechnological tools; and as sources of novel tools and approaches for conservation of megadiverse organism groups. We hope conservation professionals will value the potential of fungi, engage mycologists in their work, and appreciate the crucial role of fungi in nature. Una Perspectiva Micótica de la Biología de la Conservación     

Thirty year monitoring of PCBs, organochlorine pesticides and tetrabromodiphenylether in eel from The Netherlands

Because of their excellent properties as a biomonitor, yellow eels (Anguilla anguilla) have been used for time-trend monitoring of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and tetrabrominated diphenylether (tetra-BDE). The program has now lasted for thirty years and has delivered valuable information on trends and spatial differences of these compounds in the delta of the rivers Rhine and Meuse and other Dutch canals, rivers and lakes. Specific local PCB, HCH and dieldrin contaminations were identified. Temporal trends show a slow decrease of PCB concentrations since 1977. Eels from the rivers Rhine and Meuse still exceed present European maximum residue limits for dioxin-like PCBs. Apart from some exceptions, OCP and tetra-BDE concentrations have also decreased, and more than those of PCBs. Fat contents of eel have decreased from an average of 21 to ca. 13%. This decrease in fat contents, coincides with the strong reduction of the European eel stock.     

Maintenance and Operation Problems of Electrostatic Precipitators

A general background is offered to the potential sources and solutions of maintenance difficulties Involved with the electrostatic precipitator. The purpose of the discussion is not only to show the Inherent complexity of the situation, but to stress areas of problem identification and activity for the user of this equipment. The information contained in this paper should provide an overall base for the details covered in the subsequent papers of this conference.     

Corynebacterium glutamicum as an indicator for environmental cobalt and silver stress–A proteome analysis

Cobalt and silver are toxic for cells, but mechanisms of this toxicity are largely unknown. Analysis of Corynebacterium glutamicum proteome from cells grown in control and cobalt or silver enriched media was performed by two dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) followed by mass spectrometry. Our results indicate that the cell adapted to cobalt stress by inducing five defense mechanisms: Scavenging of free radicals, promotion of the generation of energy, reparation of DNA, reparation and biogenesis of Fe-S cluster proteins and supporting and reparation of cell wall. In response to the detoxification of Ag⁺ many proteins were up-regulated, which involved reparation of damaged DNA, minimizing the toxic effect of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and energy generation. Overexpression of proteins involved in cell wall biosynthesis (1,4-alpha-glucan branching enzyme and nucleoside-diphosphate-sugar epimerase) upon cobalt stress and induction of proteins involved in energy metabolism (2-methylcitrate dehydratase and 1, 2-methylcitrate synthase) upon silver demonstrate the potential of these enzymes as biomarkers of sub-lethal Ag⁺ and Co toxicity.     

Net Present Biodiversity Value and the Design of Biodiversity Offsets

There is an urgent need to develop sound theory and practice for biodiversity offsets to provide a better basis for offset multipliers, to improve accounting for time delays in offset repayments, and to develop a common framework for evaluating in-kind and out-of-kind offsets. Here, we apply concepts and measures from systematic conservation planning and financial accounting to provide a basis for determining equity across type (of biodiversity), space, and time. We introduce net present biodiversity value (NPBV) as a theoretical and practical measure for defining the offset required to achieve no-net-loss. For evaluating equity in type and space we use measures of biodiversity value from systematic conservation planning. Time discount rates are used to address risk of non-repayment, and loss of utility. We illustrate these concepts and measures with two examples of biodiversity impact–offset transactions. Considerable further work is required to understand the characteristics of these approaches.     

Educating the next generation of atmospheric scientists within a European Network of Excellence

In order to promote the next generation of atmospheric scientists, the task Training and Education (T&E) in ACCENT, the European Network of Excellence in Atmospheric Composition Change (www.accent-network.org) has developed and implemented an Integrated Learning Environment (ILE). For school teachers and their students, the Internet-based “Global Change Magazine” provides up-to-date and freely accessible scientific material in English and five other languages. Additionally, T&E has produced online teaching material for early-career scientists. These e-learning modules are now being used in University Master's courses across Europe. T&E also organised training events for early-career scientists, combining scientific content with development in transferable skills, to focus on interdisciplinary collaboration, interaction with senior scientists, communication with stakeholders, and dissemination to the general public. Evaluation based on participant feedback evidences the effectiveness of these events, e.g., in terms of motivation to remain in the field. Methodologies and materials from T&E are being published in a Handbook on Best Practice, intended for both educators and scientists around the globe who are involved in education in the field of air quality and climate change science.