舟山凉潭岛填海工程对水动力及海床演变影响的模拟预测分析

用一个三维(ECOMSED)模式对舟山凉潭岛填海工程前后的潮流场变化进行模拟,做出预测。潮流场模拟结果与实测基本吻合。经分析可知,工程对潮流的影响主要在围堤的东南角小范围内:工程后流速明显减小,造成淤积现象,但淤积程度不大,1年后的淤积为13cm左右,5年后的淤积为0.8—1.2m左右。工程对较深水层的潮流运动影响很小。通过对施工期间产生的悬浮物在涨落潮时的分布模拟可知,涨潮时,悬浮物从工程区域的一个悬浮物源不断排出,主要对工程附近及其上游地区造成一定的影响;落潮时,悬浮物主要影响工程外围及其下游地区,整个落潮期间悬浮物能影响的范围比涨潮期间要大。总体上工程对该附近海域的潮流场及冲淤影响很小。     

集合数据同化方法的发展与应用概述

集合数据同化方法具有简洁概念化的公式和应用起来相对容易等优点,因此,它们获得了普及性的应用;近10年来集合数据同化方法已经得到了快速的发展。综述了包括集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF,Ensemble Kalman Filter)、集合卡尔曼平滑(EnKS,Ensemble Kalman Smoother)、集合方均根滤波(EnSRF,Ensemble Square-Root Filter)和减秩卡尔曼滤波(SEEK,Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman Filter)等集合数据同化方法的研究进展状况。通过与其它数据同化方法的对比,总结出了这些方法的特点,探讨了我国在集合数据同化方法研究中存在的问题并展望了该方法的研究和应用前景。     

The main phosphorous sources in the Changjiang estuary

Analysis using historical data on the phosphate sources in Changjiang （Yangtze River） estuary show that phosphate was supplied equally from the east, south, west and north of the estuary. These sources include the Changjiang River, the Taiwan Warm Current （TWC）, a cyclone-type eddy, and the 32°N Upwelling, supplying different phosphates in different times, ways and intensities. The magnitude of their supplying phosphate concentration was related with the size in the order of the Changjiang River 〈 the TWC 〈 the 32°N Upwelling 〈 the cyclone-type eddy, and the duration of the supplying was： the Changjiang River 〉 the TWC 〉 the cyclone-type eddy 〉 the 32°N Upwelling. The four sources supplied a great deal of phosphate so that the phosphate concentration in the estuary was kept above 0.2 pmol/L in previous years, satisfying the phytoplankton growth. The horizontal and vertical distribution of the phosphate concentration showed that near shallow marine areas at 122°E/31°N, the TWC in low nutrient concentration became an upwelling through sea bottom and brought up nutrients from sea bottom to marine surface. In addition, horizontal distribution of phosphate concentration was consistent with that of algae： Rhizosolenia robusta, Rhizosolenia calcaravis and Skeletonema, which showed that no matter during high water or low water of Changjiang River, these species brought by the TWC became predominant species. Therefore, the authors believe that the TWC flowed from south to north along the coast and played a role in deflecting the Changjiang River flow from the southern side.