The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)–IPL project No. 179

This article summarises activities and preliminary results of the International Programme on Landslides Project no. 179 “Database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)”. This project is planned for 3 years (2013–2015); the main objectives of the first year are (1) to create an online database and (2) to select collaborating partners. A survey of existing and relevant documents, information and organisations has been initiated along with the creation of a website (www.glofs-database.org) and the establishment of international collaboration. The first preliminary results show regional differences in various attributes of GLOF events (e.g. triggers, chronological distribution). These differences should be taken into consideration in regionally focused methods of hazard assessment, mitigation and consequently risk management.     

Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial lake outburst floods: example from Palcacocha Lake (Cordillera Blanca,Peru)

Studies focusing on moraine deposits which slide into glacial lakes are scarce, even though they can trigger impact waves responsible for generating glacial lake outburst floods. We focused on landslides in lateral moraines as possible triggers. Detailed geomorphological, geophysical, and satellite radar interferometric investigations of the Palcacocha Lake moraine (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) together with laboratory tests on samples from the site provided data for slope stability calculations using GeoSlope software and hydrodynamic impact wave modeling using the Iber code. We identified landslides that could affect Palcacocha Lake and calculated their stability (factor of safety) under specified conditions, including variable water saturation and earthquake effects. Calculations showed that the moraine slopes are close to the threshold value (Fs?=?1) for stability and are especially sensitive to water saturation. The height of impact waves triggered by a landslide in 2003 and the potential wave heights from newly identified, possibly active landslides were calculated, based on landslide volume estimates, detailed lake bathymetry, and basin topography. Results show that potential future landslide-triggered waves could have similar properties to the 2003 impact wave. Evidence gathered in this study suggests that glacial lake outburst floods triggered by landslides from moraines, however, would be probably smaller than floods resulting from other types of slope processes (e.g., ice/rock avalanches) if dam breach is not taken into account. This assumption has to be critically evaluated against site-specific conditions at a given lake and any possible environmental factors, such as climate change or earthquake that may mobilize larger volumes of moraine material.     

The Science and Policy of the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration

The restoration of tidal wetland and seagrass systems has the potential for significant greenhouse gas benefits, but project-level accounting procedures have not been available at an international scale. In this paper, we describe the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration, which provides greenhouse gas accounting procedures for marsh, mangrove, tidal forested wetland, and seagrasses systems across a diversity of geomorphic conditions and restoration techniques. We discuss and critique the essential science and policy elements of the methodology and underlying knowledge gaps. We developed a method for estimating mineral-protected (recalcitrant) allochthonous carbon in tidal wetland systems using field-collected soils data and literature-derived default values of the recalcitrant carbon that accompanies mineral deposition. We provided default values for methane emissions from polyhaline soils but did not provide default values for freshwater, oligohaline, and mesohaline soils due to high variability of emissions in these systems. Additional topics covered are soil carbon sequestration default values, soil carbon fate following erosion, avoided losses in organic and mineral soils, nitrous oxide emissions, soil profile sampling methods, sample size, prescribed fire, additionality, and leakage. Knowledge gaps that limit the application of the methodology include the estimation of CH₄ emissions from fresh and brackish tidal wetlands, lack of validation of our approach for the estimation of recalcitrant allochthonous carbon, understanding of carbon oxidation rates following drainage of mineral tidal wetland soils, estimation of the effects of prescribed fire on soil carbon stocks, and the analysis of additionality for projects outside of the USA.     

Morphological analysis and features of the landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Global warming in high mountain areas has led to visible environmental changes as glacial retreat, formation and evolution of moraine dammed lakes, slope instability, and major mass movements. Landslide dams and moraine dams are rather common in the Cordillera Blanca Mountains Range, Peru, and have caused large damages and fatalities over time. The environmental changes are influencing the rivers’ and dams’ equilibrium, and the potential induced consequences, like catastrophic debris flows or outburst floods resulting from dam failures, can be major hazards in the region. The studies of past landslide dam cases are essential in forecasting induced risks, and specific works on this topic were not developed in the study region. Reflecting this research gap, a database of 51 cases and an evolution study of landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca Mountains is presented. The main morphometric parameters and information of the landslide, the dam body, the valley, and the lake, if any, have been determined through direct and indirect survey techniques. Low variability in some of the main morphometric parameter distributions (valley width and landslide volume) has been shown, most likely due to an environmental control connected to the regional tectonic and glacial history. In order to analyze present and future landslide dam evolution, a morphological analysis was carried out using two recently developed geomorphological indexes employed on the Italian territory. The results of the Cordillera Blanca analysis have been compared with a large Italian landslide dam inventory, highlighting as much the differences as the similarities between the two datasets. The long-term geomorphological evolution changes are evaluated. Many of the stable dams are in disequilibrium with their surrounding environment and their classification result is of “uncertain determination.”     

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca,Perú)

Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini ( 2012 ) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.