Focal mechanism inversion in the Giudicarie–Lessini seismotectonic region (Southern Alps, Italy): Insights on tectonic stress and strain

A set of 41 focal mechanisms (1989–2006) from P-wave first polarities is computed from relocated seismic events in the Giudicarie–Lessini region (Southern Alps). Estimated hypocentral depths vary from 3.1 to 20.8 km, for duration magnitudes (M_D) in the range 2.7–5.1. Stress and strain inversions are performed for two seismotectonic zones, namely G (Giudicarie) and L (Lessini). This subdivision is supported by geological evidence, seismicity distribution, and focal mechanism types. The available number of data (16 in G, 22 in L) does not make possible any further subdivisions. Seismotectonic zones G and L are undergoing different kinematic regimes: thrust with strike-slip component in G, and strike-slip in L. Principal stress and strain axes in each sub-region show similar orientations. The direction of maximum horizontal compressive stress is roughly perpendicular to the thrust fronts along the Giudicarie Belt in zone G, and compatible with right-lateral strike-slip reactivation of the faults belonging to the Schio-Vicenza system in zone L. On the whole, kinematic regimes and horizontal stress orientations show a good fit with other stress data from focal mechanisms and breakouts and with geodetic strain rate axes.     

Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project

Within the SLAM project (Service for Landslide Monitoring), launched in 2003 by the European Space Agency (ESA) the Permanent Scatterers (PS) technique, a multi-image interferometric approach, coupled with the interpretation of aerial-photos and optical satellite images, was carried out for landslide investigations. The PS analysis was applied at a regional scale as support for landslide inventory mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known slope movements. For the integration of the PS measurements within a landslide inventory the Arno river basin (Italy) was chosen as test site for the presence of a high number of mass movements (to date about 300 areas at high landslide risk and more than 27,000 individual landslides mapped by the institutional authorities). About 350 SAR images have been interferometrically processed by means of the PS technique, with the detection of about 600,000 PS. The use of optical images contributed spatial meaning to the point-wise information provided by the PS, making it easier to identify terrain features related to slope instability and the landslide boundaries. Here we describe the employed methodology and its impact in the updating of a preexisting landslide inventory. 6.8% of the total number of landslides were characterized by ground displacement measurements from the PS: 6.1% of already mapped landslides and 0.8% of new unstable areas detected through the PS analysis. Moreover, most of the PS are located in urban areas, showing that the proposed methodology is suitable for landslide mapping in areas with a quite high density of urbanization, but that over vegetated areas it still suffers from the limitations induced by the current space-borne SAR missions (e.g. temporal de-correlation). On the other hand, the use of InSAR for the monitoring of single slow landslides threatening built-up areas has provided satisfactory results, allowing the measurement of superficial deformations with high accuracy on the landslide sectors characterized by a good radar reflectivity and coherence.     

Classifying zones of suitability for manual drilling using textural and hydraulic parameters of shallow aquifers: a case study in northwestern Senegal

A method is proposed that uses analysis of borehole stratigraphic logs for the characterization of shallow aquifers and for the assessment of areas suitable for manual drilling. The model is based on available borehole-log parameters: depth to hard rock, depth to water, thickness of laterite and hydraulic transmissivity of the shallow aquifer. The model is applied to a study area in northwestern Senegal. A dataset of boreholes logs has been processed using a software package (TANGAFRIC) developed during the research. After a manual procedure to assign a standard category describing the lithological characteristics, the next step is the automated extraction of different textural parameters and the estimation of hydraulic conductivity using reference values available in the literature. The hydraulic conductivity values estimated from stratigraphic data have been partially validated, by comparing them with measured values from a series of pumping tests carried out in large-diameter wells. The results show that this method is able to produce a reliable interpretation of the shallow hydrogeological context using information generally available in the region. The research contributes to improving the identification of areas where conditions are suitable for manual drilling. This is achieved by applying the described method, based on a structured and semi-quantitative approach, to classify the zones of suitability for given manual drilling techniques using data available in most African countries. Ultimately, this work will support proposed international programs aimed at promoting low-cost water supply in Africa and enhancing access to safe drinking water for the population.     

A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure deficit are estimated ensuring consistency within daily records. The weather generator ClimGen is then used to create 30 synthetic years of all variables to characterize the time horizons of 2000, 2020 and 2030, which can readily be used for crop modelling studies.     

Thermorheological model for the European Central Alps: brittle–ductile transition and lithospheric strength

A two‐dimensional thermorheological model of the Central Alps along a north–south transect is presented. Thermophysical and rheological parameters of the various lithological units are chosen from seismic and gravity information. The inferred temperature distribution matches surface heat flow and results in Moho temperatures between 500 and 800 °C. Both European and Adriatic lithospheres have a ‘jelly‐sandwich’ structure, with a 15–20 km thick brittle upper crust overlying a ductile lower crust and a mantle lid whose uppermost part is brittle. The total strength of the lithosphere is of the order of 0.5–1.0 × 10¹³ N m⁻¹ if the upper mantle is dry, or slightly less if the upper mantle is wet. In both cases, the higher values correspond to the Adriatic indenter.     

The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data

Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km² straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.     

An overshoot solar dynamo with a strong return meridional flow

The meridional circulation plays an essential role in determining the basic mechanism of the dynamo action in the case of a low eddy diffusivity. Flux-transport dynamos with strong return flow and a deep stagnation point are discussed in the case of a positive α-effect located in the overshoot layer and a rotation law consistent with helioseismology. By means of a linear dynamo model, it will be shown that the migration of the toroidal belts at lower latitudes and the periods of the activity cycles are consistent with the observations. Moreover, at variance with previous investigations, the typical critical dynamo numbers of dipolar solutions are significantly smaller than those of quadrupolar solutions even in the regime of strong flow.     

Fluids in the peridotite–water system up to 6 GPa and 800°C: new experimental constrains on dehydration reactions

The phase assemblages and compositions in a K-free lherzolite + H₂O system were determined between 4 and 6 GPa and 700–800°C, and the dehydration reactions occurring at subarc depth in subduction zones were constrained. Experiments were performed on a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setting. The composition of the fluid phase was measured using the recently developed cryogenic LA–ICP–MS technique. Results show that, at 4 GPa, the aqueous fluid coexisting with residual lherzolite (~85 wt% H₂O) doubles its solute load when chlorite transforms to the 10-Å phase between 700 and 750°C. The 10-Å phase breaks down at 4 and 5 GPa between 750 and 800°C and at 6 GPa between 700 and 750°C, leaving a dry lherzolite coexisting with a fluid phase containing 58–67 wt% H₂O, again doubling the total dissolved solute load. The fluid fraction in the system increases from 0.2 when a hydrous mineral is present to 0.4 when coexisting with a dry lherzolite. Our data do not reveal the presence of a hydrous peridotite solidus below 800°C. The directly measured fluid compositions demonstrate a fundamental change in the (MgO + FeO) to SiO₂ mass ratio of fluid solutes occurring at a depth of ca. 120–150 km (in the temperature window of 700–800°C), from (MgO–FeO)-dominated at 4 GPa [with (MgO + FeO)/SiO₂ ratio of 1.41–1.56] to SiO₂-dominated at 5–6 GPa (ratios of 0.61–0.82). The mobility of Al₂O₃ increases by more than one order of magnitude across this P–T interval and demonstrates that Al₂O₃ is compatible in an aqueous fluid coexisting with the anhydrous ol-opx-cpx ± grt assemblage. This shift in the fluid composition correlates with changes in the phase assemblage of the residual silicates. The hitherto unknown fundamental change in (MgO + FeO)/SiO₂ ratio and prominent increase in Al₂O₃ of the aqueous fluid with progressive subduction will likely inspire novel concepts on mantle wedge metasomatism by slab fluids.