淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征

基于淮河流域9个水文站的月径流量数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验法、GAMLSS模型与洪水频率分析模型等方法,揭示了淮河中上游洪水频率的演变规律,分析基于平稳性和非平稳性条件下的洪水发生强度及洪涝灾害所带来的影响.研究发现:潢川、横排头和蚌埠站点未发生明显变异,其余6个站点发生均值或方差变异,变异时间主要集中在2000年左右.淮河流域的最优拟合分布函数是Weibull;班台、蒋家集和横排头站适宜于非平稳性模型,其余站点选择平稳性模型.各站点非平稳性条件下10年和20年一遇设计流量值与平稳性条件下皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布设计流量值相差不大,但30年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇的设计流量相差逐渐变大.横排头站和蚌埠站洪水放大因子随着时间增加呈上升趋势且大于1,百年一遇重现期不足80年.各站点年最大洪峰流量与淮河流域、安徽省水灾面积通过了95%或99%的显著性检验.     

Carbon Isotope Records Indicative of Paleoceanographical Events at the Latest Permian Dalong Formation at Shangsi, Northeast Sichuan, China

Paired organic and carbonate carbon isotope compositions of Late Permian Wujiaping (吴家坪) and Dalong (大隆) formations at Shangsi (上寺), Northeast Sichuan (四川) were analyzed by MAT 251. An abrupt negative excursion in the two isotope records was observed in the middle part of Dalong Formation, in association with a drop in the carbon isotope difference of the two records and an increase of total organic carbon (TOC) content. The negative drop of the paired carbon isotope records issuggestive of the input of 12C-enriched CO2. The molecular ratios of pristane to phytane and dibenzothiophene to phenanthrene indicate the anoxic condition in this interval. The enhanced TOC content is indicative of the elevated preservation of organic matter due to the anoxic condition. These isotopic and organic geochemical data probably infer the occurrence of the upwelUng in this interval. The additional contribution of volcanism activity observed in South China cannot be excluded to the input of 12C-enriched CO2 and the negative shifts in carbon isotope composition of bulk organic matter and carbonate.     

重庆凉风垭剖面二叠-三叠系界线层碳同位素变化特征

重庆凉风垭二叠-三叠系界线剖面64个碳酸盐样品碳同位素值测试结果显示,在界线附近碳同位素值出现3次负异常,第1次负异常出现在第37层,考虑到该层是灰岩透镜体与黏土岩的混合层,此次异常有待进一步验证;第2次负异常出现在第40层,此次异常是δ(13C)值偏移幅度最大的1次(1.5‰),在该层大量生物灭绝;第3次负异常出现在第44层.凉风垭界线剖面碳同位素值的3次负异常与生物变化的对比表明,碳循环的多次变化与生物危机相伴,生物危机期间环境处于不稳定状态.