鲜水河断裂带现今断层运动短周期事件的发现与初步研究

根据鲜水河断裂带上连续动态地壳形变台阵数据，首次揭示了中国大陆板内断层现今运动的短周期现象，包括蠕变阶、蠕变坡和脉动等，其持续时间为数分钟至数十小时。发现其空间分布与断层分段（闭锁或活动段）有关；其时间分布与强地震孕育过程有关。蠕变过程符合Ｌｏｍｎｉｚ提出的对数蠕变函数，可能是断层面不均匀结构中的局部流变行为。断层短周期事件对揭示断层不均匀结构和微破裂过程动力学有重要意义，并可能发展为一种新的地震前兆     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震震源过程的研究

采用数字化台网Ｐ波波形资料及台湾台网Ｐ波初动方向资料,研究了１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７３级地震及邻近地区（北纬２１～２６°,东经１１５～１２０°）ＭＬ≥５８级共５次地震的矩张量解及震源参数。结果表明,这次７３级地震的矩张量解以双力偶成分为主,是断层面接近ＮＷ走向的正断层。断层面的走向与大震前地震的条带分布走向及余震分布显示的破裂图象较相象,震源机制的张应力轴接近水平,近ＮＥ走向;压应力轴几乎垂直,近ＮＷＷ走向,似乎表明这次地震是受菲律海板块向欧亚板块北西向挤压的力源控制。从Ｐ轴接近竖直而Ｔ轴接近水平来看,发震断层为强烈拉张性正断层,可能还同时存在垂直向上的应力作用。其它４个强震的震源机制解与７３级大震的差别较大。这些地震震源机制解的复杂性,表明台湾海峡地震序列的发展过程比较复杂。     

中国东南陆缘的深部结构与动力学过程

对我国东南陆缘地区的人工地震测深、大地电磁测深、重磁测量、地热测量、地学大断面编制以及天然地震的层析成像等大量深部构造研究结果作综合分析。地热异常、地壳内存在低速层和高导层、强烈地震频繁发生等现象说明,这一地区是现代构造运动的活动区。中国东南陆缘的现今应力场主压应力方向为ＮＷＷ－ＳＥＥ,认为是菲律宾板块对欧亚板块的挤压,以及冲绳海槽的扩张等联合作用的结果。因此,这一地区地壳运动的驱动力是太平洋板块和菲律宾板块向欧亚板块推挤产生的。     

Numerical Simulation of the Graben-Forming Process in Southern Xizang

I.INTRODUCTION It iS generally accepted that the stress state in the upper crust and upper mantle in the southernQinghai—Xiz~g Plateau is essentially extensional(Molnar and Tapponnier,1978;Chen and Molnar,1983:Armijo et a1.,1986).Data offocal.mechanism     

Paleoseismicity and Segmentation Along the Active Fault at the Northern Boundary of Huailai-Zhuolu Basin,Hebei Province

The northern boundary fault of Huailai-Zhuolu basin,Hebei Province,has a total length of 58 km and a general strike of NE.The geometry and feature of activity of the 5 segments of the fault greatly differ from each other.17 paleoseismic events have been recognized within 11 trenches excavated along the different segments of the fault.It is found that each segment is characterized by its distinct recurrence of paleoearthquakes.The recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for each segment are 3500-7000 a for the shortest and 17,000-20,500 a for the longest.However,the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes for whole fault ranges between 750-8500 a.The boundary of the segments can be recognized as the junction,gap,bending,jog and salient of the fault.The length of the segment ranges between 7.5-14 km.     

Theory and Experimental Results about the Application of Remote Sensing to Earthquake Prediction

In this paper,the theory for applying remote sensing to earthquake prediction has been elucidated and an experiment has been made.Through the experiment,it has been found that the characteristics and temperature of infrared radiant of rocks vary as a function of rock stress,the order of magnitude of radiance variation is 10-5(W/cm2 sr um),the amount of variation of the radiant temperature is 0.2℃~0.8℃ and some significant precursor information has been discovered.The experiment has verified preliminarily that the advanced technology of remote sensing can be applied to earthquake prediction.     

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.     

Amplitude Ratio of Regional Seismic Phases: An Efficient Indicator of Thermal State of the Lithosphere

By analyzing seismograms of short period records at the Beijing SeismoJogicaJ Observatory, the present paper investigates the amplitude ratio of seismic phases. The results indicate that the amplitude ratio of Sn/Lg is correlated with the lithosphere structure, the thermal state, and strong earthquake occurrence in the region the seismic rays pass through. The significance of such a correlation in the study on the genesis and prediction of strong earthquakes is discussed.