Interannual and interdecadal variabilities in the Pacific in an MRI coupled GCM

Interannual and interdecadal variabilities in the Pacific are investigated with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM developed at MRI, Japan. The model is run for 70 years with flux adjustments. The model shows interannual variability in the tropical Pacific which has several typical characteristics shared with the observed ENSO. A basin-scale feature of the principal SST variation for the ENSO time scale shows negative correlation in the central North Pacific with the tropical SST, similar to that of the observed one. Associated variation of the model atmosphere indicates an intensification of the Aleutian Low and a PNA-like teleconnection pattern as a response to the tropical warm SST anomaly. The ENSO time scale variability in the midlatitude ocean consists of the westward propagation of the subsurface temperature signal and the temperature variation within the shallow mixed layer forced by the anomalous atmospheric heat fluxes. For the interdecadal time scale, variation of the SST is simulated realistically with a geographical pattern similar to that for the ENSO time scale, but it has a larger relative amplitude in the northern Pacific. For the atmosphere, spatial structure of the variation in the interdecadal time scale is also similar to that in the ENSO time scale, but has smaller amplitude in the northern Pacific. Long oceanic spin-up time (>∼10 y) in the mid-high latitude, however, makes oceanic response in the interdecadal time scale larger than that in the ENSO time scale. The lagged-regression analysis for the ocean temperature variation relative to the wind stress variation indicates that interdecadal variation of the ocean subsurface at the mid-high latitudes is considered as enhanced ocean gyre spin-up process in response to the atmospheric circulation change at the mid-high latitudes, remotely forced by the interdecadal variation of the tropical SST. Received: 6 November 1995 / Accepted: 19 April 1996     

ENSO modulation by mountain uplift

How climate changes will modify the behavior of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the important questions in future climate projections. An investigation under different climate forcing gives us a good insight on the mechanism of ENSO variability and its changes. In this paper, sensitivity on ENSO by progressive mountain uplift is investigated with an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. We used eight different mountain heights: 0% (no mountain), 20, 40, 60, 80, 100 (control run), 120, and 140%. Land–sea distribution is the same for all experiments and all mountains in the world are uniformly varied. Systematic changes in precipitation and circulation fields as well as SST are obtained with progressive mountain uplift. In the summertime, the precipitation area moved inland of the Asian continent with mountain uplift, while the Pacific subtropical anticyclone and associated trade winds became stronger. The western Pacific warm pool and ENSO also systematically changed. When the mountain height is low, a warm pool is located over the central Pacific due to weak trade winds in the Pacific. The model ENSO is strongest, its frequency longest, and is most periodic in the no mountain run. The model ENSO becomes weaker, shorter and less periodic when the mountain height increases. Strengthening the mean state trade winds and narrowing meridional extent of equatorial wind and ocean response by mountain uplift would be responsible for ENSO modulation.     

Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations

Climate Dynamics - Present-day simulations (1983–2003) of a global climate model of 60-km resolution with three deep convection schemes are analysed to find the best scheme for simulation of...     

Diagnostic metrics for evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles

Two sets of diagnostic metrics are proposed for evaluation of global models?? simulation of annual and diurnal cycles of precipitation. The metrics for the annual variation include the annual mean, the solstice and equinoctial asymmetric modes of the annual cycle (AC), and the global monsoon precipitation domain and intensity. The metrics for the diurnal variation include the diurnal range, the land?Csea contrast and transition modes of the diurnal cycle (DC), and the diurnal peak propagation in coastal regions. The proposed modes for the AC and DC represent faithfully the first two leading empirical orthogonal functions and explain, respectively, 82% of the total annual variance and 87% of the total diurnal variance over the globe between 45°S and 45°N. The simulated AC and DC by the 20-km-mesh MRI/JMA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are in a wide-ranging agreement with observations; the model considerably outperforms any individual AMIP II GCMs and has comparable performance to 12-AMIP II model ensemble simulation measured by Pearson??s pattern correlation coefficient. Comparison of four versions of the MRI/JMA AGCM with increasing resolution (180, 120, 60, and 20?km) reveals that the 20-km version reproduces the most realistic annual and diurnal cycles. However, the improved performance is not a linear function of the resolution. Marked improvement of the simulated DC (AC) occurs at the resolution of 60?km (20?km). The results suggest that better represented parameterizations that are adequately tuned to increased resolutions may improve models?? simulation on the forced responses. The common deficiency in representing the monsoon domains suggests the models having difficulty in replicating annual march of the Subtropical Highs that is largely driven by prominent east-west land?Cocean thermal contrast. Note that the 20-km model reproduces realistic diurnal cycle, but fails to capture realistic Madden-Julian Oscillation.     

Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.     

Sensitivity of the central Asian climate to uplift of the Tibetan Plateau in the coupled climate model (MRI-CGCM1)

Abstract   The relationship between the altitude of the Tibetan Plateau and climate change in central Asia was investigated through a numeric experiment using the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model I (MRI-CGCM1). The results suggest that summer precipitation in central Asia decreased significantly as the Tibetan Plateau rose in height. Spring precipitation, however, increased during initial growth stages when the plateau height was up to 40% of its present-day height, and then decreased with further plateau growth. During the Tibetan Plateau uplift, the difference between precipitation and evaporation was minimal during spring. When the plateau attained a height exceeding 60% of its present height, relatively low precipitation but high evaporation in spring led to a lower amount of ground moisture. In the case of the high plateau, sensible heat flux during summer and fall largely exceeded latent heat flux. Change was particularly significant for cases when the plateau reached 40–60% of its present-day height. The duration of the predominant sensible heat flux became longer with the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. The period in which latent heat exceeded sensible heat seems to have been restricted to winter and early spring. The numeric experiments suggest that a significant drying of central Asia corresponded to the period in which the Tibetan Plateau exceeded approximately half its present-day height.     

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may be related with an E1 Nin^-o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitation contrast more in the future.