Difference between the even and odd 11-year cycles of geomagnetic activity

Summary With the aid of 36 monthly and a double 12-month running average, graphs of the smoothed run of geomagnetic activity were constructed from the monthly values of the geomagnetic activity index aa for the period 1868–1978 and they were then used to determine the run of the geomagnetic activity, expressed during a uniform period and devoid of the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, for the individual 11-year cycles Nos 12–20 and the average runs for even and odd cycles, as well as for the whole period of the 9 cycles. The analysis and comparison of the graphs substantiates and renders more accurate the tendency, observed earlier, towards a regular alternation of geomagnetic activity cycles with double and single maxima. Wheareas a saddle-like shape with a maximum in the neighbourhood of the first and third quarter of the cycle is characteristic of the shape of the even cycle, the second maximum being, as a rule, the main one, the odd cycle is characterized by a peak-like shape with the main maximum in the vicinity of the cycle's centre.     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation – comparison with the observations for Czech Republic

Summary We analyze daily precipitation and temperature extremes over the Czech Republic in a regional climate simulation for the 40-year period of 1961–2000 carried out with the RegCM3 regional climate model. The model is run at 45 km grid interval and is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis lateral boundary conditions. Comparison with station data shows that the model performs reasonably well in simulating the frequency of daily precipitation events of medium to high intensity as well as the precipitation intensities (return levels) of long return periods, with the exception of mountain stations. While this is attributed mainly to the relatively coarse representation of topography across the area of the Czech Republic, the parameterization of convection can be another reason. The model underestimates daily maximum temperature (especially in the warm seasons) and as a result the occurrence of heat waves (high temperature episodes). The performance of the model improves in the simulation of daily minimum temperature and cold wave events. In order to apply this regional model to the simulation of extreme events over the complex terrain as for Czech Republic we recommend that a higher resolution is used in order to better describe the topography of the Czech Republic and that the daily maximum temperature bias is reduced.     

On the problem of sudden commencements of geomagnetic storms as manifestations of shock waves

nma nu SS u nmau u nau a¶rt;a ¶rt;u nma u u a au 11-mu ua. u ¶rt; nm ¶rt; n. a¶rt;am nuu nu SS u.     

On the possibility of long-range forecasts of geomagnetic activity

Summary The relation between geomagnetic activity and solar activity is studied in long intervals and in individual 11-year cycles, characterized by certain basic parameters, in connection with investigating the prognostic significance of long-term fluctuations of geomagnetic activity [1, 2]. A number of properties as well as sufficiently close relations with a prognostic significance have been found, such as the secular variation of geomagnetic activity, the 22-year cycle of change in the form of the behaviour of geomagnetic activity in 11-year cycles, long-term concurrence of solar and geomagnetic activity and its changes within the 11-year cycle, relations between solar and geomagnetic parameters characterizing the 11-year cycle.

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a auu uu u ¶rt; uaum amum ¶rt;u nma u u m¶rt; 11-mu ua am mu ¶rt; ¶rt;m nuauaum amumu.

     

On the relationship between vertical ozone distribution and the synoptic situation

Summary The purpose of the paper is to provide a statistical view of the role of circulation patterns and the origin of low stratospheric air in connection with vertical ozone distribution below the ozone maximum, and also with the total ozone amount. Ozonesonde data from the aerological observatory of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) Prague-Libu (50·0N, 14·7E) for January to April during the period 1979–1990 have been analyzed using an objective method to find the distribution of laminae in the vertical profile of the ozone partial pressure related to the different types of circulation patterns. The synoptic classification following Grosswetterlagen (GWL) was used, the parameters of the ozone profile such as number, magnitude, thickness and height of laminae, or the appearance of the large laminae were obtained for the individual types of GWL and used in other procedures. The total ozone data from the ozone observatory of CHMI in Hradec Králové (50·2N, 15·8E) was also included together with the height of the tropopause and parameters of ozone profiles in the cluster analysis to investigate connections between the ozone distribution and circulation patterns (types of synoptic situation). The ozone low-level index (LLI), defined as the ratio of the integral amount of ozone in D.U. from the surface up to 50 hPa and total ozone were introduced to provide better information about ozone profile response to circulation patterns and thus provide a better grouping of similar types of GWL. The presented results imply the strong confirmation of the huge ozone laminae below the ozone maximum as the source of total ozone positive extremes under appropriate synoptic situations with the near location of the polar vortex edge, which could be used in common forecasts of atmospheric ozone as well as in remote sensing applications.     

On the Spectral Decomposition of Geopotential and Temperature Fields in the Stratosphere

The spectral structure of stratospheric fields (temperature and geopotential) is analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics in an effort to study the long-term behaviour of large-scale circulation patterns, as well as their connections to some extra-terrestrial effects. The daily meteorological data from the Free University Berlin (FUB) cover more or less the period 1976–1996 and are available for stratospheric levels of 50, 30 and 10 hPa. The analysis of the annual cycle of spherical harmonics is introduced, and changes of the principal wave components are compared with the changes in different sets of solar, geomagnetic and global circulation indices. This paper also deals with interannual variability with special emphasis on quasibiennial oscillations (QBO) and El Nino and Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Although this is a rather preliminary study, the decomposition of the stratospheric field into complex spherical harmonics seems to be a powerful technique in investigating and qualifying the response of the global atmospheric system to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, and in qualifying the relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and various oscillations such as QBO or ENSO, Using this technique, reasonable strong connections were found between wave numbers and interannual factors, and these connections were tentatively interpreted in terms of statistics. A very high degree of correlation was found for the four-trough shape of the polar vortex.