Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

Thermohaline Anomalies in the Spring and Early Summer of 2000 in the Gulf of Trieste

Abstract. In the framework of the Interreg II Project (July 1998 - June 2001), hydro-logical, chemical and biological data were collected in the Gulf of Trieste.
During spring and summer 2000, some particular thermohaline anomalies were observed in the Gulf of Trieste. Especially in May and June the water body showed: a very strong thermohaline stratification, an increase of advective salt water coming from the south and the presence of sharp pycnoclines. In July the temperature was higher than usual in the whole water column. Moreover, in late May and in June, massive mucilaginous aggregates were observed along the water column and at the surface.
In order to highlight these particular thermohaline features the hydrological data of 16 stations were analysed (Fig. 1). Two stations, in particular, were considered: one offshore (St. AA1, average depth 20 m) and one close to the coast (St. C1, average depth 17 m). For these two stations a best-fit analysis, computed over 11 and 7 years, respectively, was performed on temperature, salinity and density excess data.
Moreover, the hydrological features were compared with the rainfall, air temperature, wind speed data (Istituto Sperimentale Talassografico di Trieste - ISTT) and the Isonzo River's flow rate (Direzione Regionale dell'Ambiente - Regione F. V. G.) collected from January 1998 to December 2000.     

Growth of filamentous fungi in a surface-sealed woody substratum buried in salt-marsh sediments

Balsa wood panels were sealed to prevent oxygen diffusion from aerobic zones and buried in a North Carolina salt marsh to determine whether filamentous fungi could invade them despite the resulting anoxia. Results were similar to those of a previous study which had employed unsealed panels and suggest that fungi involved either are facultative microaerophiles or capable of translocating sufficient oxygen through their hyphae to permit growth into oxygen-deficient soil strata.     

Use of radon isotopes,gamma radiation and dye tracers to study water interactions in a small stream in Brazil

In this study, natural (²²²Rn) and fluorescent (uranin) tracers were used to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface waters in a small hydrographical basin located in the southeast region of Brazil. Levels of ²²²Rn were measured in 117 water samples with the use of an alpha solid-state detector. After the identification of the probable discharge sections along the stream, a measurement of the natural flows, upstream and downstream of these sections, was done with the use of a fluorimeter and fluorescent tracers. Also, scanning was done to verify a correlation between the natural gamma radiation and the ²²²Rn in the areas where its activity was higher. The results showed some sections where the ²²²Rn activity is more significant and contributed to the growth of the flows along the stream. It was possible to confirm a correlation between the discharge sections and the natural gamma radiation, what can be used as a preliminary approach to finding these sections in scenarios similar to the one studied here.     

Adsorption and affinity of Escherichia coli to different aggregate sizes of a silty clay soil

The sediments produced by water erosion are the main source of pollution of agricultural origin of surface water bodies. These sediments may be associated to bacteria, compromising the quality of nearby water bodies. Therefore, to understand this biological contamination, it is necessary to find out the adsorption capacity and bacterial affmity to aggregate sizes that may result in a differential sedimentation. To this end, in the present work, the distribution, adsorption capacity and affinity to different aggregate sizes of two strains of Escherichia coli in two liquid media of contrasting ionic strength were evaluated in a silty clay soil. The 〈2 μm fraction showed a higher proportion of bacteria than the other aggregate sizes （48%）, whereas among the fractions 〉2 μm, the 20-50μm fraction was the one that showed the highest bacterial adsorption in both liquid media （37.9%）. On the other hand, the highest values of bacterial affinity were found in the 20 to 50 lain fraction （coarse silt） in the low ionic strength media and 20--50 and 〉50 μm in the high ionic strength media. However, the bacterial strains used revealed only some trends in the modification of these variables. This work contributes to the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate pollution, such as control of sediment generation and its subsequent capture in filter strips.     

Using fluidized bed and flume experiments to quantify cohesion development from aging and drainage

Temporal variations in soil erosion resistance are often the result of decreased soil cohesion due to physical disruption followed by a regain of soil strength through a process called aging, stabilization or consolidation. The goal of this study was to quantify changes in soil cohesion due to aging and subsurface hydrologic condition using a fluidized bed method. A flume experiment was also used to verify that findings from the fluidized bed experiment translated into measurable changes in soil erodibility. Tests were performed on three different soils (a Miami soil, a Cecil soil and Crosby–Miami soil complex). Changes in soil cohesion due to aging and drainage state were successfully detected by the fluidized bed technique. For all soils tested, cohesion developed in a two‐stage process where an increase in cohesion with aging duration immediately after the soil was rewetted, was followed by a decrease in cohesion which often started after 24 h of aging. When soils were aged at field capacity, the resulting cohesion measured by the fluidized bed method was on average 3.13 times higher than that measured when aging was performed at saturation. Trends in soil rill erodibility K_r with aging duration measured in the flume experiment were consistent with the two‐stage pattern observed in soil cohesion estimates but the legacy effect of suction applied at field capacity faded after 72 h of aging. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Suspended sediment concentration controlling factors: an analysis for the Argentine Pampas region

ABSTRACT

In the Argentine Pampas region, there is little information about sediment concentration in agricultural catchments. The aims of this work are: (1) to analyse fluctuations in sediment concentration and discharge, as a first attempt to characterize hysteresis patterns; and (2) to study sediment concentration controlling factors and to assess the importance of these factors using principal component analysis and a multiple regression model. Twenty-five events registered during 4 years in a 560 ha gauged basin of Argentina were studied. Analysis of data suggested a positive clockwise pattern. The multiple regression model was performed with three factors obtained by principal component analysis: runoff, precipitation and antecedent conditions. The model explained 83% of the variability of sediment concentration. The runoff factor contributed to modelled sediment concentration with the highest magnitude, followed by precipitation and antecedent condition factors. Although the watershed is under conservation tillage, rill erosion seems to be the main source of sediment concentration.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor X. Fang     

Performance evaluation of AR5-CMIP5 models for the representation of seasonal and multi-annual variability of precipitation in Brazilian hydropower sector basins under RCP8.5 scenario

ABSTRACT

Representations of precipitation from CMIP5 models over the 1950–1999 period in hydrographic basins that are relevant to the Brazilian electricity sector are evaluated in this study. The majority of ensemble members adequately represented seasonal variability, although they differed about the patterns of high-frequency interannual variation. The models did not adequately represent seasonal-scale precipitation in the southern region of Brazil. Relative to other models, the CNRM_CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models demonstrated good seasonal and interannual representation over most basins, while the global CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL_CM5A-LR models demonstrated relatively poor performance. The models concur on the impact of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Southeast/Midwest and South sectors over the period 2015–2044, suggesting that precipitation will decrease up to 15% in the basin supplying the Furnas hydropower plant and by 12% in the basin supplying the Itaipú plant, which represents 25% of the hydroelectric production in Brazil.