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In this paper,based on the data at 70 stations selected evenly over China for 31 years from1961—1991.three methods to estimate climatic noise have been discussed and then the climaticnoise and potential predictability of monthly precipitation(January.July.April and October)havebeen examined.The estimating of climatic noise is based on the method of Madden and improvedmethods of Trenberth and Yamamoto et al.(1985).The potential predictability is approximatedby the ratio of the estimated interannual variation to the natural variation.Generally.the climaticnoise of monthly precipitation over China has obvious seasonal variation and it is greater in summerthan in winter,a bit greater in autumn than in spring.In most areas,the climatic noise isprominently decreasing from south to north and from coast to inland.The potential predictabilityof monthly precipitation also has obvious seasonal and regional difference,but the potentialpredictability is greater in winter than in summer in most parts of China.Whereas the comparisonof spring and autumn is not obvious.Comparing with the method of Madden,the estimated valuesof climatic noise based on the improved methods of Trenberth and Yamamoto et al.are relativelylower. 相似文献
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根据已经算得的1959年6、7、8月我国东部大气中的水汽输送通量,利用一种适合于计算离散点上的矢量分布散度场的程序,在电子计算机上直接算出相应月份的水汽输送通量散度场。由计算结果可以看出:水汽输送的主要辐合区,在这三个月份中是由华南到华北逐月北移的。水汽输送辐合区北移与降水区北移相一致,这一事实说明了降水分布决定于大气环流、湿度场以及环流场与湿度场的配置。 相似文献
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三参数Weibull分布参数估计的一种新方法 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
本文借助变量变换,提出一种确定三参数Weibull分布参数估计值的新方法。资料计算表贝,它不仅计算简便,而且可给出有效性高的参数估计。 相似文献
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我国的降水资源及其稳定性与潜在可预报性(Ⅰ)降水资源及其稳定性 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为合理利用我国降水资源提供科学依据,本文利用全国分布较均匀的162个测站1960-1991年降水资料,分析了我国降水是琢其稳定性特征,得出:我国降水量较丰富的东部和南就地区降水较稳定;台湾,海南和东南沿海降水稳定性比内地小;降水量较少的西北和华北地区降水不稳定,降水量多的季节比少的季节降水稳定。 相似文献