COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Future directions for the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research

The Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) plays a leading role in health services research. Research efforts to develop practice guidelines, outcomes research, and computer applications have led to improvements in the delivery of care and reduced health care costs. These efforts aid consumers, providers, purchasers, and policy makers in health care decision making. This article cites numerous examples of AHCPR's efforts to increase quality of care and reduce costs.     

1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine as a substrate of cytochrome P450 2D6: allosteric effects of NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase

1-Methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP), a neurotoxin that produces Parkinsonism symptoms in man, has been examined as a substrate of recombinant human cytochrome P450 2D6. When cumene hydroperoxide is used as an oxygen and electron donor, a single product is formed, identified as 4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine. The K(m) for formation of this product (130 microM) is in agreement with the dissociation constants for MPTP binding to the enzyme determined by optical and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. When the reaction is carried out with nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (reduced) (NADPH) and recombinant human NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase, a second product, identified as 1-methyl-4-(4'-hydroxyphenyl)-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine, is formed in addition to 4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine. The K(m) values for formation of these two products are 19 microM and 120 microM, respectively. Paramagnetic relaxation experiments have been used to measure distances between the protons of bound MPTP and the heme iron, and these have been used to construct models for the position and orientation of MPTP in the active site. For the cytochrome alone, a single mode of binding was observed, with the N-methyl close to the heme iron in a position appropriate for the observed N-demethylation reaction. In the presence of the reductase, the data were not consistent with a single mode of binding but could be explained by the existence of two alternative orientations of MPTP in the active site. One of these, characterized by a dissociation constant of 150 microM, is essentially identical to that observed in the absence of the reductase. In the second, which has a K(d) of 25 microM, the MPTP is oriented so that the aromatic ring is close to the heme iron, in a position appropriate for p-hydroxylation leading to the formation of the product seen only in the presence of the reductase. In the case of codeine, another substrate for cytochrome P450 2D6, the addition of reductase had no effect on the nature of the product formed, the dissociation constant, or the orientation in the binding site. These observations show that NADPH-cytochrome P450 reductase has an allosteric effect on the active site of cytochrome P450 2D6 that affects the binding of some substrates but not others.     

Purification and partial characterization of 76 kDa transglutaminase in the egg envelope (chorion) of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss

Transglutaminase (TGase), responsible for crosslinking between proteins, is known to be localized exclusively in the egg envelope (chorion) of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, and probably participates in the post-fertilization chorion hardening. We purified the TGase from unfertilized egg chorions by sequential chromatography using SP-Sepharose, Q-Sepharose, and TSK-gel G3000SWXL columns. The purified enzyme was a monomeric protein having the molecular mass of 76 kDa. It promoted incorporation of monodansyl-cadaverine into chorion protein and catalyzed the polymerization of chorion subunit proteins. The effect of various reagents suggested that the chorion TGase is a Ca2+-dependent SH-enzyme similar to the well-characterized TGases of various animals. The highest activity was observed at pH 6.0. The amines examined in the present study inhibited the TGase activity of the purified enzyme. However, they did not necessarily cause effective inhibition of its activity. These properties of the chorion TGase were essentially consistent with our previous observations on polymerization of chorion proteins, resulting in chorion hardening. We compared the amino acid composition of the purified TGase with those of the previously characterized TGases of fishes, such as chum salmon and red sea bream. The results suggest that the chorion 76 kDa TGase is not homologous with those liver TGases in terms of amino acid composition.