SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

儿童新型冠状病毒感染诊断、治疗和预防专家共识(第二版)

自2019年12月新型冠状病毒感染暴发以来,我国政府采取了严格的防控措施,国内疫情已得到初步控制,但形势依然严峻,境外多个国家也相继出现疫情。根据世界卫生组织的报告:截至2020年3月5日,全球共报告95333例确诊病例(其中我国累计报告确诊病例80565例),85个国家有确诊病例报告,中国将面临输入性病例的传播风险,这为防治我国儿童的疾病疫情提出了新的挑战[1]。在这次疫情中,与成人病例相比,儿童病例相对较少、症状轻、预后较好。目前国内病例数据显示,18岁以下儿童占所有报告病例的2.4%,尚无死亡病例报告[2]。     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

Radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting liver failure

BACKGROUND Postoperative liver failure is the most severe complication in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) after major hepatectomy. Current available clinical indexes predicting postoperative residual liver function are not sufficiently accurate.AIM To determine a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for predicting liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.METHODS For this retrospective study, a radiomics-based model was developed based on preoperative hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance images in 101 patients with HCC between June 2012 and June 2018. Sixty-one radiomic features were extracted from hepatobiliary phase images and selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to construct a radiomics signature. A clinical prediction model, and radiomics-based model incorporating significant clinical indexes and radiomics signature were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The integrated radiomics-based model was presented as a radiomics nomogram. The performances of clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model for predicting post-operative liver failure were determined using receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.RESULTS Five radiomics features from hepatobiliary phase images were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model incorporating indocyanine green clearance rate at 15 min and radiomics signature showed favorable performance for predicting postoperative liver failure(area under the curve: 0.809-0.894). The radiomics-based model achieved the highest performance for predicting liver failure(area under the curve: 0.894; 95%CI: 0.823-0.964). The integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of liver failure prediction when radiomics signature was added to the clinical prediction model(integrated discrimination improvement = 0.117, P =0.002). The calibration curve and an insignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic(P = 0.841) demonstrated good calibration of the radiomics-based model. The decision curve analysis showed that patients would benefit more from a radiomics-based prediction model than from a clinical prediction model and radiomics signature alone.CONCLUSION A radiomics-based model of preoperative gadoxetic acid–enhanced MRI can be used to predict liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.     

甲状腺疾病患者血清 Tg-CIC 中 Tg-Ab 水平检测及相关临床研究

目的　对血清甲状腺球蛋白免疫复合物 (thyroglobulin circulating immune complex, Tg-CIC) 中抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体 (anti-thyroglobulin antibody, Tg-Ab) 含量检测，探讨 Tg-CIC 在甲状腺疾病中的临床以及流行病学意义。方法　收集甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 187 例，每例血清标本分为两组 ( 实验组和空白对照组 )，采用免疫复合物解离专利技术对甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 Tg-CIC 进行分离、解离，通过检测 Tg-CIC 解离后的 Tg-Ab 含量来间接反映甲状腺疾病患者血清中Tg-CIC 水平，按照不同的甲状腺疾病进行分组并对实验结果分析讨论。结果　不同甲状腺患者血清中 Tg-CIC 总阳性率达 92.51%，不同甲状腺疾病血清中 Tg-CIC 的阳性率差异无统计学意义 (χ?=2.917, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义 (H=3.882, P>0.05)，不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义(H=5.5842, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的 Tg-Ab 含量呈正相关 (P<0.05)，甲状腺功能减退、甲状腺肿瘤患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的Tg-Ab 含量不相关 (P>0.05)。结论　在甲状腺疾病患者血清中，大部分可检出 Tg-CIC，与疾病类型无关。而甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量与血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量存在相关性，为我们进一步了解 Tg-CIC 与甲状腺疾病的发生、发展的相关性研究奠定了基础，提供了新的研究视角。     

VATS解剖性肺段切除术与肺叶切除术治疗Ⅰa期NSCLC患者的手术情 况及对肺功能影响的比较

目的:探讨电视胸腔镜（VATS）解剖性肺段切除术与肺叶切除术治疗Ia 期非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）患者的手术情况及对患者肺功能的影响。方法:选取我院手术治疗的Ⅰa期NSCLC患者，收集时间2014年1月至2016年12月，根据术式不同分为两组，均采用VATS手术治疗，A组（54例）患者采用解剖性肺段切除术、B组（60例）采用肺叶切除术治疗，对比两组患者的手术效果及术后肺功能变化。结果:A组患者的手术时间、清扫淋巴结数目与B组比较差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）；A组患者的手术出血量、术后胸腔引流量、术后拔管时间、术后住院时间均显著的低于B组患者（P<0.05）；术前，A组和B组患者的FEV1%、FVC%、MVV%测定值差异无统计学意义（P>0.05），术后3个月复查，A组患者的FEV1%、FVC%、MVV%测定值均显著高于B组患者（P<0.05）；手术后，A组患者的并发症发生率（7.41%）低于B组患者（13.33%），但是差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。结论:VATS解剖性肺段切除术治疗Ⅰa期NSCLC患者具有手术创伤小、术后恢复快、对患者肺功能影响更小的优势。