Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON THE OPTIIMAL REACTIONS ASSEMBLAGE OF COMPLEX REACTION SYSTEMS

In this paper, the author analyzes distinguishing features of complex reaction systems and single reversible reaction, and optimizes complex reaction systems starting from set theory.The method of constructing the optimal reactions assemblage and calculating the potential maximum equilibrium yield (PMEY) of objective products is proposed here. This paper points out clearly that the euqilibrium yield of objective products calculated by means of conventional method is the global equilibrium yield (GEY).It is not the thermodynamic constraint, and could be exceeded by observed yield of objective products; only PMEY is the thermodynamic constraint. It gives information on potential and possible optimal yield and thereby improving production. This paper also points out the way in which the real complex reaction system approached the optimal reactions assemblage. The new concept of PMEY and optimal reaction assemblage proposed by this Paper is universally applicable for the important complex reaction systems, such as the pyrolysis of alkane to produce ethylene, steam reforming of methane to produce syngas, production of formaldehyde from methanol, epoxidation of ethylene to produce ethylene oxide, hydrogenation of benzene to produce cyclohexane.     

高电荷态离子129Xeq+激发Au表面产生的X射线谱

目的研究高电荷态离子129Xeq (q=28,29,30)入射金属Au表面产生的特征X射线谱。方法应用高电荷态离子束流激发。结果在束流强度小于139 nA条件下,单离子的X射线产额可达10-8量级,特征X射线的产额随入射离子的动能和势能(电荷态)的增加而增加。结论与传统的X射线产生方法不同,高电荷态离子可以激发重原子的内壳层特征X射线谱,其产额高,品质好。     

吉林省近50年粮食产量及作物结构变化研究

通过分析吉林省近50年的粮食产量变化趋势及粮食作物种植结构变化,可以看出吉林省近50年来粮食总产量呈"波动式"迅速增加;粮食结构也发生了巨大的变化,由大豆、玉米、谷子和高粱四大作物"四足鼎立"的结构模式演变为目前以玉米占绝对优势的"玉米型"经济。分析了粮食总产量增加的主要因素和影响粮食作物结构变化的主要因素;指出吉林省粮食生产中存在的问题。图3,参10。     

顶凌覆盖节水增产技术研究

通过1998年、2000年的试验研究，系统分析了顶凌覆盖技术在高寒区节水增温保温、增产增收的机理及其应用效果。提出该技术可以缓解低温干旱特别是春旱对农业生产的困扰，是一项可以抗旱保春播增产增收的实用技术，在高寒地区具有较高的推广价值。     

作物高产性的光合碳同化生理限制因子分析

对影响作物高产的光合作用碳同化的生理限制因子进行了分析，提出内外因子结合考虑是提高作物的光合效率和产量的关键．     

用不同浓度氯化钠溶液和面对面筋得率的影响

研究了用不同浓度氯化钠溶液和面对面团湿、干面筋的质量、含量及面筋吸水量的影响.实验中分别采用去离子水0、.05 mol/L NaCl0、.10 mol/L NaCl0、.20 mol/L NaCl溶液和面,并测定了用自来水洗出的干、湿面筋质量.结果表明:盐浓度对湿面筋得率的影响不呈线性关系.     

"T+0"和"T+1"制度下投资者交易风险对比

从投资者当日(T)投资所面临的交易风险出发,运用数据客观地对比分析了在“T 0”和“T 1”两种交易制度下带给投资者的交易风险,阐明在保护投资者利益方面两种交易制度的优劣性,通过数据分析,认为“T 1”交易制度并不能更好地保护下跌行情中从事股票交易的投资者利益．甚至,在上海证券市场上“T 1”交易制度下的交易令投资者不能及时纠正交易错误,导致投资者的交易风险有扩大趋势．其实,投资者面临的最大交易风险并不是“T 0”和“T 1”这两种交易制度所带来的,而是股票市场的下跌造成的．因此,如果综合考虑我国股票市场的未来发展以及两种交易制度带给投资者的交易风险,实施“T 0”交易制度是可行的．     

菌糠复合剂对不结球白菜生长发育及产量的影响

为确定菌糠复合剂对不结球白菜生长发育及产量的影响,采用盆栽试验的方法,施用不同的菌糠复合剂,定期测定了3茬不结球白菜的株高、根长、叶片数及产量。结果表明:菌糠复合剂可以促进不结球白菜生长、增加产量。其中,以含有链霉菌(Streptomycessp.)和巨大芽孢杆菌(Bacillus megatherium)的微生物组合1 菌糠处理的效果最好。     

A new DFM flow for sub-100nm standard cells

DFM （Design-For-Manufacturability） method, which aims to improve manufacturability of ICs through specific design considerations, is becoming important nowadays. In particular, standard cells now should be designed by DFM method. This paper reports a new DFM flow for sub-100 nm standard cell design with a group of technologies for process modeling, manufacturability simulation and trial RETs. Based on this flow, a set of DFM-friendly 90nm standard cells were designed.