基于三角模糊数截集的城市洪涝易损性联系数评价模型

为克服常用综合评价方法把评价指标样本值与评价标准等级之间的关系作为实数值之间数值接近性进行评价的结果存在系统偏差的不足，探讨了用集对分析方法进行城市洪涝易损性评价的新途径。集对分析中同、异、反关系变化是连续的，相应地，引起这种变化的联系分量系数的变化也可以看作是连续的。即由“同”、“异”变化到“反”，联系分量系数则由1、0变化到-1。对“异”联系分量系数而言，则存在最可能值0、最小值-1和最大值1，可以构造三角模糊数 。据此利用三角模糊数 的α-截集，建立了基于三角模糊数α-截集的集对分析模型。实例分析结果表明：基于三角模糊数α-截集的集对分析方法不仅可以给出评价指标的具体等级，得到的等级为一置信区间，评价结果更符合时间情况，而且还可以根据区间数的期望-方差排序法对评价结果进行综合排序，确定评价结果的优劣次序，在自然灾害系统等级评价中具有推广应用价值。     

Ecological vulnerability analysis: A river basin case study

Assessing and quantifying ecosystem vulnerability is a key issue in site-specific ecotoxicological risk assessment. In this paper, the concept of vulnerability, particularly referred to aquatic ecosystems is defined. Sensitivity to stressors, susceptibility for exposure and recovery capability are described as component of vulnerability of biological communities. The potential for habitat changes must also be considered in ecosystem vulnerability assessment. A procedure based on the application of an ecosystem vulnerability index is proposed. The method allows the assessment of vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to multiple stressors. The procedure is applied to two river systems in northern Italy: River Serio, subject to strong human pressure, and River Trebbia, in semi-natural conditions, as reference system. Macrozoobenthos is chosen as the indicator community. The actual quality of River Serio was evaluated as the result of the multiple stressor pressure on the reference system. Values and limitations of the approach are discussed.     

Context and the interpretation of likelihood information: The role of intergroup comparisons on perceived vulnerability.

Four experiments investigated how people's perceptions about a group's (e.g., women's) vulnerability to a disease are influenced by information about the prevalence of the disease in a comparable group (e.g., men). Participants read symptom and prevalence information about fictitious diseases before answering questions regarding target group vulnerability. Participants used the prevalence rate for a nontarget group as an immediate comparison standard for intuitively interpreting the degree of vulnerability of a target group, resulting in robust contrast effects. Experiments 3 and 4 illustrated that these contrast effects can cause a person's intuitive perceptions about a group's vulnerability to selected diseases to conflict with his or her knowledge of the prevalence rates for the diseases. The results support a distinction between 2 components of psychological uncertainty--beliefs in objective probability and more intuitive perceptions of certainty. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

南水北调受水区干旱灾害风险评估方法探讨

南水北调工程的受水区为黄淮海流域,干旱问题已经成为该区域经济和社会发展的瓶颈,因此有必要对受水区内的干旱风险做出准确评估.区域干旱风险可以理解为区域内暴露于干旱下的承灾体,在外部致灾因子扰动下,由于自身的脆弱性,所遭受损失的可能性及可能的损失程度的大小.区域干旱风险评估的任务是明晰发生干旱时暴露于干旱下各个部门和社会生活的各个方面,确定引发干旱的自然致灾因子,分析承灾体的脆弱性,预测干旱造成的影响和损失,并通过数学方法合理量化风险的大小,同时确定造成各部门、地区和人口风险的主要原因,即干旱风险的主要影响因素,从而寻求降低风险的有效途径.现以南水北调某一特定受水区域为研究对象,分析了干旱灾害的成灾机理,对干旱致灾因子的危险性及承灾体的脆弱性进行了讨论,提出相应的计算公式,建立了针对特定区域的干旱灾害风险评估模式,对干旱灾害风险提出了量化的方法.并结合南水北调受水区济南市的实际情况对本文提出的方法进行了应用和验证,实践证明该风险评估模式有一定的科学性和应用价值.     

丽江城市水资源评价

对丽江盆地的水资源状况、水资源利用现状进行分析,在分析地下水污染现状的基础上,使用美国EPA地下水脆弱性评价方法(DRASTIC)对地下水环境进行脆弱性评价。结果显示,该盆地的脆弱性值高。在地下水资源衰减与短缺分析的基础上,提出了丽江市地下水资源利用和保护的适宜性区划及措施。     

Vulnerability and resilience in women with arthritis: Test of a two-factor model.

The purpose of this study was to test a 2-factor model of affective health in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA; n = 82) or osteoarthritis (OA; n = 88). Positive and negative social interactions and affect were assessed for 11 consecutive weeks. For each participant, Vulnerability and Resilience factors were created from factor analyses of positive and negative personal characteristics, respectively. Multilevel analyses tested the hypothesis that weekly changes in social interactions or affect would only be predicted by the factor of the same valence. The Vulnerability (and not the Resilience) factor predicted changes in negative interactions. The Resilience (and not the Vulnerability) factor predicted changes in positive interactions. The Vulnerability (and not the Resilience) factor predicted changes in current and next-week negative affect. The Resilience and Vulnerability factors each predicted changes in current and next-week positive affect, although the effects for Vulnerability were smaller than for Resilience. Finally, the Vulnerability factor interacted with pain to predict more future negative affect. The main implication is that both Vulnerability and Resilience should be considered in theory, research, and interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A non-linear masonry infill macro-model to represent the global behaviour of buildings under cyclic loading

The presence of masonry infill walls in RC buildings is very common. However, and even today, in the design of new buildings and in the assessment of existing ones, these infill walls are usually considered as non-structural elements and their influence in the structural response is generally ignored. For horizontal loading, infill panels can drastically modify the response, attracting forces to parts of the structure that have not been designed to resist them. This paper presents an improved non-linear numerical simulation model for the influence of the masonry infill walls in the seismic behavior of structure. The model is implemented in the PORANL program. After the implementation and calibration of the proposed masonry model, a series of non-linear dynamic analyses of a building representative of Modern Architecture in Europe were carried out. The main objective was to investigate the behavior of this type of building, and any weakness under seismic loading. The building geometry and the dimensions of the RC elements and infill walls were set in the original project, and confirmed in the technical visits. The building under study has nine storeys and the structure is mainly composed of 12 plane frames oriented in the transversal direction. The building was analyzed with a simplified plane model, for each direction, and the existing infill panels were looked at in accordance with their dimensions and location. The earthquake action adopted in this study was simulated through three series of artificially generated earthquakes, for a medium/high seismic risk scenario in Europe.     

Reducing Vulnerability of Water Resources of Canadian Prairies to Potential Droughts and Possible Climatic Warming

Past and the present studies show that the Canadian Prairies havebecome warmer and may have been drier in the last four to five decadesbut the drying trends are scattered and inconclusive.Statistical analysis shows that only the Winter and Fall (insome instances) precipitation is marginally related to ENSO andthe PNA (Pacific North Americ) Index, and streamflow is highlyvariable. With uncertainties on the potential impact of climaticchange and other uncertainties, several strategies are proposedto reduce the vulnerability of the Prairies to future droughts,where surface water is the primary water supply and agricultureis the major water user: (1) Continue implementing small-scalewater resources projects and increase water storage through snowmanagement, (2) increase integration between existing waterresources systems, and (3) promote water conservation measuresin agriculture practice, water pricing and water metering.     

地区性河湖水系连通脆弱性评价方法及应用

在对河湖水系连通脆弱性分类基础上,指出河湖水系连通脆弱性扰动可分为本质脆弱性扰动、特殊脆弱性扰动,进而探讨了河湖水系连通脆弱性、敏感性和适应性三者之间的关系,构建了河湖水系连通脆弱性的敏感性指标体系,分析了河湖水系连通的适应性,提出了河湖水系连通脆弱性评价方法,并据此评价了辽宁省中部六城市地区的河湖水系连通脆弱性,指出该六城市群已处于河湖水系连通极脆弱区,亟需实施大伙房水库输水工程调水。     

云南曲靖盆地地下水脆弱性模糊评价

在DRASTIC指标的基础上,运用层次分析法构建了云南省曲靖盆地地下水脆弱性指标体系,并采用多级二层模糊评价方法进行脆弱性评价。结果表明:曲靖盆地地下水脆弱性分区为四级,西部基岩地下水和孔隙水脆弱性高,东部的孔隙水及少量岩溶水处于脆弱性中等。评价结果有利于地下水环境的保护。