Identification of Spatial Ranking of Hydrological Vulnerability Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques: Case Study of Korea

Potential flood damage (PFD), potential streamflow depletion (PSD), potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), and watershed evaluation index (WEI) have been developed to spatially quantify the hydrological vulnerability using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. All criteria are selected on the basis of a sustainability evaluation concept (pressure-state-response model), and their weights are estimated by an Analytic Hierarchy Process, which is also a type of MCDM technique. The MCDM techniques used for the evaluation are composite programming, compromise programming, ELECTRE II, Regime method, and Evamix method; these techniques can be classified according to data availability and objectives (prefeasibility and feasibility). Furthermore, the WEI is improved to reflect the preferences of the residents with regard to management objectives through weights (of PFD, PSD, and PWQD) obtained from questionaires of residents. Finally, this study derives a procedure to identify the spatial investment prioritization using four indices.     

Ballistic limit equation for equipment placed behind satellite structure walls

A new ballistic limit equation has been developed for the case of a Whipple shield configuration or a sandwich panel with honeycomb core placed in front of a backwall. This “triple plate” ballistic limit equation considers explicitly the thicknesses, materials and spacings of each of the three plates. The third plate, i.e., the backwall, represents the cover plate or external wall of the equipment that is placed behind the satellite structure wall. The ballistic limit equation has been calibrated with experimental results obtained from hypervelocity impact tests on satellite equipment that was placed behind typical satellite structure walls. The equipment considered were fuel and heat pipes, pressure vessels, electronic boxes, harness, and batteries, all representative of real satellite equipment. The new equation was applied to prove that if the inherent protection capability of satellite equipment against hypervelocity impacts is explicitly considered in a ballistic limit equation, the critical projectile diameters for failure of such equipment are raised considerably compared to the case where equipment is assumed to fail as soon as the structure wall that protects it is perforated.     

底层框架砖房的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大，地震对人类的危害变得越来越大，因此，做好建筑物震害预测工作，具有非常重要的现实意义，根据“合肥市防震减灾信息系统”中合肥市中市区底层框架砖房的抗震调查资料，用结构易损性分析方法对该类房屋未来震害情况进行了预测分析。     

基于三角模糊数截集的城市洪涝易损性联系数评价模型

为克服常用综合评价方法把评价指标样本值与评价标准等级之间的关系作为实数值之间数值接近性进行评价的结果存在系统偏差的不足，探讨了用集对分析方法进行城市洪涝易损性评价的新途径。集对分析中同、异、反关系变化是连续的，相应地，引起这种变化的联系分量系数的变化也可以看作是连续的。即由“同”、“异”变化到“反”，联系分量系数则由1、0变化到-1。对“异”联系分量系数而言，则存在最可能值0、最小值-1和最大值1，可以构造三角模糊数 。据此利用三角模糊数 的α-截集，建立了基于三角模糊数α-截集的集对分析模型。实例分析结果表明：基于三角模糊数α-截集的集对分析方法不仅可以给出评价指标的具体等级，得到的等级为一置信区间，评价结果更符合时间情况，而且还可以根据区间数的期望-方差排序法对评价结果进行综合排序，确定评价结果的优劣次序，在自然灾害系统等级评价中具有推广应用价值。     

丽江城市水资源评价

对丽江盆地的水资源状况、水资源利用现状进行分析,在分析地下水污染现状的基础上,使用美国EPA地下水脆弱性评价方法(DRASTIC)对地下水环境进行脆弱性评价。结果显示,该盆地的脆弱性值高。在地下水资源衰减与短缺分析的基础上,提出了丽江市地下水资源利用和保护的适宜性区划及措施。     

Vulnerability and resilience in women with arthritis: Test of a two-factor model.

The purpose of this study was to test a 2-factor model of affective health in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA; n = 82) or osteoarthritis (OA; n = 88). Positive and negative social interactions and affect were assessed for 11 consecutive weeks. For each participant, Vulnerability and Resilience factors were created from factor analyses of positive and negative personal characteristics, respectively. Multilevel analyses tested the hypothesis that weekly changes in social interactions or affect would only be predicted by the factor of the same valence. The Vulnerability (and not the Resilience) factor predicted changes in negative interactions. The Resilience (and not the Vulnerability) factor predicted changes in positive interactions. The Vulnerability (and not the Resilience) factor predicted changes in current and next-week negative affect. The Resilience and Vulnerability factors each predicted changes in current and next-week positive affect, although the effects for Vulnerability were smaller than for Resilience. Finally, the Vulnerability factor interacted with pain to predict more future negative affect. The main implication is that both Vulnerability and Resilience should be considered in theory, research, and interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

南水北调受水区干旱灾害风险评估方法探讨

南水北调工程的受水区为黄淮海流域,干旱问题已经成为该区域经济和社会发展的瓶颈,因此有必要对受水区内的干旱风险做出准确评估.区域干旱风险可以理解为区域内暴露于干旱下的承灾体,在外部致灾因子扰动下,由于自身的脆弱性,所遭受损失的可能性及可能的损失程度的大小.区域干旱风险评估的任务是明晰发生干旱时暴露于干旱下各个部门和社会生活的各个方面,确定引发干旱的自然致灾因子,分析承灾体的脆弱性,预测干旱造成的影响和损失,并通过数学方法合理量化风险的大小,同时确定造成各部门、地区和人口风险的主要原因,即干旱风险的主要影响因素,从而寻求降低风险的有效途径.现以南水北调某一特定受水区域为研究对象,分析了干旱灾害的成灾机理,对干旱致灾因子的危险性及承灾体的脆弱性进行了讨论,提出相应的计算公式,建立了针对特定区域的干旱灾害风险评估模式,对干旱灾害风险提出了量化的方法.并结合南水北调受水区济南市的实际情况对本文提出的方法进行了应用和验证,实践证明该风险评估模式有一定的科学性和应用价值.     

基于二维平面拟合的电网脆弱性分析

电网的脆弱性分析对于指导事故防控和确保系统安全稳定运行具有重要意义。文中同时考虑影响电网脆弱性的运行状态和拓扑参量因素，在一定的电网运行条件下，结合加权改进的小世界模型，提出了基于二维平面拟合的电网脆弱性分析方法。主要研究扰动后潮流转移过程中电网结构改变与运行状态变化之间的相互关系，分析具有不同输送潮流和不同结构特征的线路故障导致的转运潮流改变和电网拓扑变化对于系统脆弱性的影响，并从中找出电网的脆弱线路，这对于指导电网中相关重要元件的监控、维护工作提供了可供参考的依据。算例结果表明所述方法合理、有效，具有在线应用的前景。     

越流区承压含水层特殊脆弱性评价模型的参数灵敏度分析

承压含水层特殊脆弱性评价中存在着诸多不确定性因素,影响评价结果的可靠性。本文分别运用局部灵敏度分析和Morris法的全局灵敏度分析对承压含水层特殊脆弱性评价模型中的参数进行灵敏度分析,为提高模型评价结果的可靠性奠定了基础。以济宁市承压含水层特殊脆弱性评价为例,对模型中各参数灵敏度进行分析。结果表明：弱透水层厚度、承压水与潜水水头差、弱透水层垂向渗透系数对承压含水层脆弱性评价模型的影响最为显著,弱透水层密度、分配系数与有效孔隙度对模型的影响次之,潜水含水层中污染物浓度与弱透水层弥散度对模型的影响最小;全局灵敏度分析结果显示,除弥散度外的各参数灵敏度系数的绝对值随着承压含水层脆弱等级的升高而降低。     

架空线路覆冰闪络跳闸特性分析与风险建模

极端冰灾天气下线路覆冰闪络跳闸是激发大电网脆弱性、导致大面积停电的重要因素。覆冰闪络跳闸等现象的风险评估是建立冰灾防御体系的基础。基于电网层面,进行了冰灾天气下线路覆冰闪络跳闸的风险状态识别与风险建模。根据覆冰闪络跳闸特性分析,界定了输电网绝缘系统的脆弱点,即覆冰期绝缘系统冰凌桥接、融冰期冰凌断流等临界点。进一步建立了覆冰闪络状态的划分原则与风险等级,并对预测冰况进行了模糊模式识别和风险评级,为运行人员提供了动态风险信息。针对数据的小样本、多输入等特点,采用统计学习理论结构风险最小化方法,构建了最小二乘支持向量机（least squares support vector machine,LSSVM）冰闪跳闸风险评估模型,依据贝叶斯（Bayesian）证据推理优化模型参数。通过与误差反向传播人工神经网络（artificial neural networkwith error back propagation,BP-ANN）算法对比,验证了该模型的有效性。最后通过脆弱性指标分析了网架结构破坏的严重性与电网绝缘系统的脆弱性。