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黄河万家寨水库流域降雨径流的分布式模拟及率定

应用SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,研制了黄河万家寨水库流域分布式降雨径流模拟系统,并对万家寨水库流域进行了10年（2000-2009年）径流模拟。其中,以2000-2006年为系统参数的敏感性分析期和模型率定期,以2007-2009年为模型的验证期,模拟结果显示,万家寨站点上模拟径流与实测径流过程线的相关系数达到0.97以上。在此基础上还将数值预报模式与模拟系统相耦合,对万家寨水库入库径流进行了预报和检验分析,结果较好。因此,该模拟系统能够较好地反映万家寨水库入库径流量的变化过程,具有一定的适用性,为进一步进行降雨径流预测提供了技术支撑。     

Improved estimators of correlation and R2 for skewed hydrologic data

ABSTRACT

The coefficient of determination R² and Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = R are standard metrics in hydrology for the evaluation of the goodness of fit between model simulations and observations, and as measures of the degree of dependence of one variable upon another. We show that the standard product moment estimator of ρ, termed r, while well-behaved for bivariate normal data, is upward biased and highly variable for bivariate non-normal data. We introduce three alternative estimators of ρ which are nearly unbiased and exhibit much less variability than r for non-normal data. We also document remarkable upward bias and tremendous increases in variability associated with r using both synthetic data and daily streamflow simulations from 905 calibrated rainfall–runoff models. We show that estimators of ρ = R accounting for skewness are needed for daily streamflow series because they exhibit high variability and skewness compared to, for example, monthly/annual series, where r should perform well.     

福建测震台网各种类型地震计脉冲标定结果统计与分析

以福建省测震台网现有地震计种类的相关参数为基础,介绍各种地震计使用“十五”标定系统时需设置的脉冲标定参数的计算过程.通过分析“十五”标定系统应用以来的相关处理结果,总结各种类型地震计周期、阻尼、灵敏度的影响因素,从一定程度上反映相关类型地震计的稳定性能.     

微震监测系统标定信号的应用

徐州矿务集团有限公司三河尖煤矿建立了覆盖全矿井的KZ-1型微震监测系统,通过地面监测主机向井下各测站发时间同步校时信号,用GPS秒号起始去同步各个测站下位机时钟,保证了各测站之间相对时间精确度.KZ-1型微震监测系统的拾震器设置了双换能器,且各有一个独立的磁回路,通过地面监测主机向拾震器标定换能器发标定指令信号,信号检测换能器再将输出信号上传至监测主机,实现了即时定量标定.标定信号的应用使KZ-1型微震监测系统具备整个系统检测功能,包括灵敏度、频响特征以及各测站的时间同步误差.     

地震波频散效应与反Q滤波相位补偿

本文以Futterman提出的地震波振幅衰减和相速度频散表达式为基础,从井震匹配的角度出发,推导了不进行反Q滤波、仅反Q滤波振幅补偿、仅反Q滤波相位补偿,以及反Q滤波相位与振幅同时补偿四种情况下,地震波速度频散与相速度及地震记录振幅谱间的表达式,并从理论上说明了反Q滤波相位补偿的必要性.通过相同观测系统,炸药震源和可控震源分别激发采集的零偏移距VSP资料实例,验证了本文所推导的速度频散表达式的合理性;通过井震标定实例,进一步说明了反Q滤波相位补偿,可有效消除地震子波速度频散,提升地面地震资料与零偏移距VSP走廊叠加剖面的匹配度,最终提高地震资料成果的可信度.     

Time stability of spring and superconducting gravimeters through the analysis of very long gravity records

Long gravity records are of great interest when performing tidal analyses. Indeed, long series enable to separate contributions of near-frequency waves and also to detect low frequency signals (e.g. long period tides and polar motion). In addition to the length of the series, the quality of the data and the temporal stability of the noise are also very important. We study in detail some of the longest gravity records available in Europe: 3 data sets recorded with spring gravimeters in Black Forest Observatory (Germany, 1980–2012), Walferdange (Luxemburg, 1980–1995) and Potsdam (Germany, 1974–1998) and several superconducting gravimeters (SGs) data sets, with at least 9 years of continuous records, at different European GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) sites (Bad Homburg, Brussels, Medicina, Membach, Moxa, Vienna, Wettzell and Strasbourg). The stability of each instrument is investigated using the temporal variations of tidal parameters (amplitude factor and phase difference) for the main tidal waves (O1, K1, M2 and S2) as well as the M2/O1 factor ratio, the later being insensitive to the instrumental calibration. The long term stability of the tidal observations is also dependent on the stability of the scale factor of the relative gravimeters. Therefore we also check the time stability of the scale factor for the superconducting gravimeter C026 installed at the J9 Gravimetric Observatory of Strasbourg (France), using numerous calibration experiments carried out by co-located absolute gravimeter (AG) measurements during the last 15 years. The reproducibility of the scale factor and the achievable precision are investigated by comparing the results of different calibration campaigns. Finally we present a spectrum of the 25 years of SG records at J9 Observatory, with special attention to small amplitude tides in the semi-diurnal and diurnal bands, as well as to the low frequency part.     

Two-dimensional physical-based inversion of confined and unconfined aquifers under unknown boundary conditions

An inverse method is developed to simultaneously estimate multiple hydraulic conductivities, source/sink strengths, and boundary conditions, for two-dimensional confined and unconfined aquifers under non-pumping or pumping conditions. The method incorporates noisy observed data (hydraulic heads, groundwater fluxes, or well rates) at measurement locations. With a set of hybrid formulations, given sufficient measurement data, the method yields well-posed systems of equations that can be solved efficiently via nonlinear optimization. The solution is stable when measurement errors are increased. The method is successfully tested on problems with regular and irregular geometries, different heterogeneity patterns and variances (maximum K_max/K_min tested is 10,000), and error magnitudes. Under non-pumping conditions, when error-free observed data are used, the estimated conductivities and recharge rates are accurate within 8% of the true values. When data contain increasing errors, the estimated parameters become less accurate, as expected. For problems where the underlying parameter variation is unknown, equivalent conductivities and average recharge rates can be estimated. Under pumping (and/or injection) conditions, a hybrid formulation is developed to address these local source/sink effects, while different types of boundary conditions can also exert significant influences on drawdowns. Local grid refinement near wells is not needed to obtain accurate results, thus inversion is successful with coarse inverse grids, leading to high computation efficiency. Furthermore, flux measurements are not needed for the inversion to succeed; data requirement of the method is thus not much different from that of interpreting classic well tests. Finally, inversion accuracy is not sensitive to the degree of nonlinearity of the flow equations. Performance of the inverse method for confined and unconfined aquifer problems is similar in terms of the accuracy of the estimated parameters, the recovered head fields, and the solver speed.     

First-principles derivation of reactive transport modeling parameters for particle tracking and PDE approaches

Both Eulerian and Lagrangian reactive transport simulations in natural media require selection of a parameter that controls the “promiscuity” of the reacting particles. In Eulerian models, measurement of this parameter may be difficult because its value will generally differ between natural (diffusion-limited) systems and batch experiments, even though both are modeled by reaction terms of the same form. And in Lagrangian models, there previously has been no a priori way to compute this parameter. In both cases, then, selection is typically done by calibration, or ad hoc. This paper addresses the parameter selection problem for Fickian transport by deriving, from first principles and D (the diffusion constant) the reaction-rate-controlling parameters for particle tracking (PT) codes and for the diffusion–reaction equation (DRE). Using continuous time random walk analysis, exact reaction probabilities are derived for pairs of potentially reactive particles based on D and their probability of reaction provided that they collocate. Simultaneously, a second PT scheme directly employing collocation probabilities is derived. One-to-one correspondence between each of D, the reaction radius specified for a PT scheme, and the DRE decay constant are then developed. These results serve to ground reactive transport simulations in their underlying thermodynamics, and are confirmed by simulations.     

SSY-Ⅱ石英伸缩仪与SS-Y伸缩仪的对比分析

兰州十里店地震台于1985年安装了1台SSY-Ⅱ石英伸缩仪,于2006年又安装了1台SS-Y伸缩仪。对这两套仪器的主要构造部件——基线、换能系统、标定系统进行了对比分析,并从产出资料的趋势变化、调和分析、干扰、地震事件等方面进行了对比分析,总结了这两套仪器各自的优缺点。