干冷空气活动对超强台风“桑美”(2006)近海突然增强影响的数值模拟研究

利用中尺度模式WRF V2.2对超强台风“桑美”(2006)进行数值模拟,在模式较好地模拟出台风路径和强度及其近海突然增强过程基础上,分析在“桑美”近海突然增强过程中,环境场中的干冷空气在湿度场和温度场上的表现特征以及对近海台风突然增强的作用及其可能机制。结果表明:“桑美”在近海突然增强与环境场中干冷空气活动密切相关,高时空分辨率的FY-2C气象卫星水汽图像可以形象地揭示出台风发展演变过程中干冷空气的发展演变特征,干冷空气在高层的范围和强度明显强于中层。随着“桑美”西北侧的干冷空气不断靠近台风环流,台风在近海发展加强;而随着“桑美”西南侧干冷空气逐渐逆时针卷入台风环流,台风开始减弱。干冷空气沿着等熵面由高层向中层、由高纬向中低纬入侵,在“桑美”北上时,两者发生相互作用,“上干下湿”的层结分布,有利于台风增强。干冷空气与沿西北向移动的暖湿台风环流系统发生相互作用,干冷空气及其穿越等熵面的下沉运动所产生的冷平流效应有利于台风发展;干冷空气随着等熵面高度的下降出现明显西倾,有利于台风发展。      

RESEARCH PROGRESS ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES

Landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs)include those TCs approaching the land and moving across the coast.Structure and intensity change for LTCs include change of the eye wall,spiral rain band,mesoscale vortices,low-layer shear lines and tornadoes in the envelope region of TC,pre-TC squall lines,remote rain bands,core region intensity and extratropical transition(ET)processes,etc.Structure and intensity change of TC are mainly affected by three aspects,namely,environmental effects,inner core dynamics and underlying surface forcing.Structure and intensity change of coastal TCs will be especially affected by seaboard topography,oceanic stratification above the continental shelf and cold dry continental airflow,etc.Rapid changes of TC intensity,including rapid intensification and sudden weakening and dissipation,are the small probability events which are in lack of effective forecasting techniques up to now.Diagnostic analysis and mechanism study will help improve the understanding and prediction of the rapid change phenomena in TCs.     

Analysis of a tornado-like severe storm in the outer region of the 2007 super typhoon Sepat

When super typhoon Sepat came close to the Fujian coastline on the night of 18 August 2007 (coded as 0709 in Chinese convention), an associated tornado-like severe storm developed at 2307–2320 Beijing Standard Time in Longgang, Cangnan County, Wenzhou Prefecture, Zhejiang Province approximately 300 km away in the forward direction of the typhoon. The storm caused heavy losses in lives and property. Studying the background of the formation of the storm, this paper identifies some of its typical characteristics after analyzing its retrieval of Doppler radar data, vertical wind shear and so on. Synoptic conditions, such as unstable weather processes and TBB, are also studied.     

北上变性热带气旋对辽东半岛降水的影响

9711(Winnie)和0509(Matsa)是两个登陆北上影响辽东半岛的变性台风,Matsa直接登陆辽东半岛,但降水量仅为穿过渤海间接影响辽东半岛的Winnie的一半.分析其变性过程与辽东半岛热带气旋降水的关系发现,Winnie和Matsa的降水差异与其北上期间与西风带系统的相互作用密切相关.Winnie变性北上期间被中纬度西风槽"捕获",发生耦合,高层正湿位涡扰动下传,西风带冷空气与热带气旋暖湿气流相互作用,有利于对流云团的生成、发展,在半岛地区产生大暴雨的降水雨带由多个β中尺度云团组成.Matsa在北上变性过程中,只是靠近高空槽底,没有发生耦合,高层正湿位涡扰动不强,没有与低层环流相互作用,冷空气偏南偏弱,变性过程中半岛地区只有1个β中尺度云团生成,降水量较小.     

热带气旋在中低纬度环境场中的不同活动特征

利用1951～1996年的历史资料,统计分析并详尽比较了中、低纬度环境场中的热带气旋活动的不同特征,获得了一些有益的结果。如:约65 %(5月达90 %)的低纬度热带气旋能北上进入中纬度地区;在中纬度地区活动的热带气旋平均移向较低纬度偏东60 左右、移速则较低纬度大10 km/h以上;约60 %的热带气旋在中纬度地区消亡;热带气旋的平均强度在中、低纬系统的分界线附近最大等。为进一步揭示热带气旋与中、低纬度环流系统相互作用的不同特征奠定了基础。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL REMNANT RE-ENTERING THE SEA: A CASE STUDY

When Typhoon Toraji(2001)reached the Bohai Gulf during 1-2 August 2001,a heavy rainfall event occurred over Shandong province in China along the gulf.The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF-ARW)model was used to explore possible effects of environmental factors,including effects of moisture transportation,upper-level trough interaction with potential vorticity anomalies,tropical cyclone(TC)remnant circulation,and TC boundary-layer process on the re-intensification of Typhoon Toraji,which re-entered the Bohai Gulf after having made a landfall.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)global final(FNL)analysis provided both the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the WRF-ARW model.The model was initialized at 1200 UTC on 31 July and integrated until 1200 UTC on 3 August 2001,during which Toraji remnant experienced the extratropical transition and re-intensification.Five numerical experiments were performed in this study,including one control and four sensitivity experiments.In the control experiment,the simulated typhoon had a track and intensity change similar to those observed.The results from three sensitivity experiments showed that the moisture transfer by a southwesterly lower-level jet,a low vortex to the northeast of China,and the presence of Typhoon Toraji all played important roles in simulated heavy rainfall over Shandong and remnant re-intensification over the sea,which are consistent with the observation.One of the tests illustrated that the local boundary layer forcing played a secondary role in the TC intensity change over the sea.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF POYANG LAKE''S INFLUENCE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the Tropical Cyclone(TC briefly thereafter)Yearbook 1980-2009,this paper first analyzes the number and intensity change of the TCs which passed directly over or by the side of Poyang Lake(the distance of TC center is less than 1°longitude or 1°latitude from the Lake)among all the landfalling TCs in China during the past 30 years.Two cases are examined in detail in this paper.One is severe typhoon Rananim with a speed of 3.26 m/s and a change of 1 hPa in intensity when it was passing the Lake.The other is super typhoon Saomai with a faster moving speed of 6.50 m/s and a larger change in intensity of 6 hPa.Through numerical simulation experiments,this paper analyzes how the change of underlying surface from water to land contributes to the differences in intensity,speed and mesoscale convection of the two TCs when they passed the Lake.Results show that the moisture and dynamic condition above the Lake were favorable for the maintenance of the intensity when Rananim was passing through Poyang Lake,despite the moisture supply from the ocean was cut off.As a result,there was strong convection around the lake which led to a rainfall spinning counter-clockwise as it was affected by the TC movement.However,little impact was seen in the Saomai case.These results indicate that for the TCs coming ashore on Poyang Lake with a slow speed,the large water body is conducive to the sustaining of the intensity and strengthening of the convection around the TC center and the subsequent heavy rainfall.On the contrary,a fast-moving TC is less likely to be influenced by the underlying surface in terms of intensity and speed.     

登陆热带气旋入黄渤海强度变化的环境场特征

为了研究登陆热带气旋进入黄渤海域(YBTC)强度变化的规律和环境场特征,利用1949-2007年台风资料和NCEP/NCAR逐6h的客观再分析资料,首先对YBTC强度变化进行统计分析,发现其入海加强比率达49%,9月加强的频数最多、加强幅度最大,登陆福建的YBTC加强比率高,中心最低气压P_(min)和中心最大平均风速V_(max)变化不完全同步,V_(max)加强幅度比减弱幅度大,P_(min)加强幅度与减弱幅度相当。选择入海加强和入海减弱的YBTC各5例,合成诊断、对比分析两类YBTC的大尺度环境条件表明:前者YBTC西北部有深槽移近、YBTC与其锋区入海时逐渐耦合,后者在YBTC西部有浅槽、北部为弱脊。前者副热带高压经向度大利于YBTC与中纬槽系统相互作用加强。前者有强的高空急流快速靠近、YBTC行进到高空急流入口区右侧,而后者位于较弱的高空急流入口区外、没有快速靠近过程。两者都有低空偏南风急流输送水汽,但前者西侧有较强北风带来的干冷空气。前者具有较强的湿斜压性和θ_(se)陡立区适宜倾斜涡度发展。     

登陆中国热带气旋入海强度变化的统计特征

利用1949—2006年热带气旋资料分析登陆中国又入海的热带气旋(LSTC)的强度变化,重点给出明显加强的LSTC(RLSTC)发生频率、时空分布、路径及强度演变特征。主要结论:(1)LSTC入海有24%加强,主要在我国海域,也有少部分进入朝鲜海峡、日本海和鄂霍次克海加强;登陆大陆入海加强的比率明显高于登陆台湾或登陆海南的比率。(2)RLSTC年平均有0.7个,逐年代减少,8月最多。(3)中心最低气压和最大风速加强最强的月份分别在8月和10月、加强最强的海域分别在南海和东黄海。(4)登陆时强度为强热带风暴的最多;其路径除了移向稳定者外,在南海和北部湾还有迂回盘转式。(5)明显加强主要发生在入海时刻,很少持续明显加强。进入东黄海的RLSTC以最大风速先于中心气压变化或仅有风速加强的情况居多,进入南海、北部湾入海后的风速、气压基本同步加强,迂回路径可在入海后72～132小时还会加强。     

西北太平洋风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋活动年际变化的影响

应用中国《台风年鉴》资料、欧洲中心40年月平均再分析资料和NOAA的逐月海温资料,研究了西北太平洋(5°—30°N,110°E—180°)风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋(TC)活动年际变化的影响。研究发现,西北太平洋所有TC、风暴以上级别的TC(TSTY,即达到热带风暴级别及以上的所有TC)和所有台风(WTY,包括台风、强台风和超强台风)年频数与西北太平洋风速垂直切变都显著负相关。西北太平洋风速垂直切变大小对生成源地在南海(5°—30°N,110°—120°E)TC和西北太平洋西部海域(5°—30°N,120°—150°E)TC的影响较小,而对西北太平洋东部海域(5°—30°N,150°E—180°)生成的TC影响最大:即西北太平洋风速垂直切变负异常年,有利于西北太平洋东部海域TC生成发展,使得负异常年较正异常年TC频数偏多和源地平均位置偏东;并且风速垂直切变的变化对TC频数和生成源地影响的显著性,随着TC强度的增加而增加。对TSTY生成环境场的进一步分析表明,西北太平洋风速垂直切变偏小年,季风槽偏强位置偏东,它的东端位于宽阔的太平洋洋面,与弱风速垂直切变区相配合,暖的海温加上低层强烈的正涡度和强烈辐合,且相应的高层有强的气流辐散区,这些环境场都有利于TSTY在主要源地尤其是西北太平洋东部海域生成,这是风速垂直切变偏小年TSTY偏多和生成源地偏东的重要原因。