China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

Carbon stock of oil palm plantations and tropical forests in Malaysia: A review

In Malaysia, the main land change process is the establishment of oil palm plantations on logged‐over forests and areas used for shifting cultivation, which is the traditional farming system. While standing carbon stocks of old‐growth forest have been the focus of many studies, this is less the case for Malaysian fallow systems and oil palm plantations. Here, we collate and analyse Malaysian datasets on total carbon stocks for both above‐ and below‐ground biomass. We review the current knowledge on standing carbon stocks of 1) different forest ecosystems, 2) areas subject to shifting cultivation (fallow forests) and 3) oil palm plantations. The forest ecosystems are classified by successional stage and edaphic conditions and represent samples along a forest succession continuum spanning pioneer species in shifting cultivation fallows to climax vegetation in old‐growth forests. Total carbon stocks in tropical forests range from 4 to 384 Mg C/ha, significantly wider than the range of total carbon stocks of oil palm plantations, 2 to 60 Mg C/ha. Conversion of old‐growth forest areas to oil palm plantations leads to substantial reduction in carbon storage, while conversion of forest fallows to oil palm plantations may sustain or even increase the standing carbon stock.     

灼烧法中有机质与总有机碳换算关系的重建及其在页岩分析中的应用

有机质与总有机碳(TOC)的换算关系为wo=1.724×wTOC,难以满足当前页岩气开发的现场测定要求,需要作出修正。本文以鄂尔多斯盆地南部页岩样品为研究对象,在传统灼烧法基础上,采用X射线荧光光谱仪测定页岩组成,得出影响烧失量的因素;用热重-差热仪研究页岩灼烧情况,确定了无机盐不分解而有机质分解的最佳灼烧温度和时间。通过线性拟合灼烧法测得的有机质含量与仪器法测得的有机碳含量间的换算关系,建立了一种通过测定烧失量来换算总有机碳含量的新方法。在页岩最佳灼烧温度480℃,灼烧时间1.5 h条件下线性拟合建立了两种新的换算关系,获得TOC测定值与仪器法的标准值相对误差分别为1.691%、0.486%,检出限分别为0.41%、1.60%。综合它们的优缺点,可将测定页岩类样品的换算关系重建为wo=2.125×wTOC。重建的方法通过严格控制灼烧温度,解决了传统灼烧法中烧失量因无机盐高温分解造成有机质代表性不足的问题,可用于精确测定页岩中的有机质或有机碳含量。     

Private agri-food governance and greenhouse gas abatement: Constructing a corporate carbon economy

Private sector actors are playing an increasingly significant role in the definition and governance of ‘sustainable’ agri-food practices. Yet, to date little attention has been paid by social scientists to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are addressed as part of private agri-food governance arrangements. This paper examines how private actors within agri-food supply chains respond to emerging pressure for measures to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture. Drawing upon the Anglo-Foucauldian governmentality literature, we introduce the notion of the corporate carbon economy to conceptualise the practical techniques that enable private agri-food actors to make GHG emissions thinkable and governable in the context of existing market, regulatory, and supply chain pressures. Using a case study of the Australian dairy industry, we argue that private agri-food actors utilise a range of techniques that enable them to respond to existing government environmental regulations, balance current market pressures with future supply chain requirements, and demonstrate improved eco-efficiency along food supply chains. These techniques – which include environmental self-assessment instruments, tools for measuring GHG emissions, and sustainability reporting – have little direct relevance to the ‘international climate regime’ of carbon trading, and carbon markets more broadly, yet individually and in combination they are crucial in enacting an alternative regime of GHG governance. In concluding, we contend that the growing use of sustainability metrics by international food companies is likely to have the most powerful implications for GHG governance in the agri-food sector, with potentially far-reaching consequences for how future action on climate change is rendered thinkable and practicable.     

Origin and quantitative source assessment of deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift,Tarim Basin

A large amount of deep oil has been discovered in the Tazhong Uplift, Tarim Basin whereas the oil source is still controversial. An integrated geochemical approach was utilized to unravel the characteristics, origin and alteration of the deep oils. This study showed that the Lower Cambrian oil from well ZS1C (

_1x) was featured by small or trace amounts of biomarkers, unusually high concentration of dibenzothiophenes (DBTs), high δ³⁴S of DBTs and high δ¹³C value of n-alkanes. These suggest a close genetic relationship with the Cambrian source rocks and TSR alteration. On the contrary, the Middle Cambrian oils from well ZS1 (

_2a) were characterized by low δ¹³C of n-alkanes and relatively high δ³⁴S of individual sulfur compounds and a general “V” shape of steranes, indicating a good genetic affinity with the Middle–Upper Ordovician source rocks. The middle Cambrian salt rock separating the oils was suggested to be one of the factors responsible for the differentiation. It was suggested that most of the deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift were mixed source based on biomarkers and carbon isotope, which contain TSR altered oil in varied degree. The percentage of the oils contributed by the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician was in the range of 19–100% (average 57%) controlled by several geological and geochemical events. Significant variations in the δ³⁴S values for individual compounds in the oils were observed suggesting a combination of different extent of TSR and thermal maturation alterations. The unusually high DBTs concentrations in the Tazhong-4 oilfield suggested as a result of mixing with the ZS1C oil (

_1x) and Lower Ordovician oils based on δ³⁴S values of DBT. This study will enhance our understanding of both deep and shallow oil sources in the Tazhong Uplift and clarify the formation mechanisms of the unusually high DBTs oils in the region.     

Sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to northwestern Saskatchewan lakes east of the Athabasca oil sands

The past several decades have witnessed a significant expansion of mining activities in the Athabasca oil sands region, raising concerns about their impact on the surrounding boreal forest ecosystem. To better understand the extent to which distal sites are impacted by oil sands-derived airborne contaminants, we examine sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments and dated sediment cores from Saskatchewan lakes situated ∼100–220 km east–northeast of the main area of bitumen mining activities. The concentrations and fluxes of both parent and alkylated PAHs are low and show considerable variability over the past 70–100 years. Small yet discernible increases in PAH concentrations and fluxes occurred over the past 30 years, a trend which coincides with the rapid growth in bitumen production. However, several lines of evidence point to wildfires as the principal source of PAHs to these lakes: (1) the significant co-variations in most cores between retene (1-methyl-7-isopropyl phenanthrene) and other groups of parent and alkylated PAHs, (2) the similarity in compound specific δ¹³C signatures of the parent PAHs phenanthrene and pyrene in recently deposited surficial sediments and those corresponding to time intervals considerably pre-dating the large scale development of the oil sands and (3) the discernible up-core increases in the proportion of refractory carbon (i.e., char) in Rock-Eval 6 data. The collective evidence points to softwood combustion from boreal forest fires as the principal source of retene in sediments and the general increase in forest fire activity in this region over the past several decades as the source of refractory carbon. Mining activities associated with the Athabasca oil sands are thus not considered a major source of PAHs to these lakes.     

Carbon isotope fractionation of Thermoanaerobacter kivui in different growth media and at different total inorganic carbon concentration

Chemolithotrophic homoacetogenic bacteria apparently express a characteristic stable carbon isotope fractionation and may contribute significantly to acetate production in anoxic environments. However, fractionation factors (ε) in bacterial cultures have rarely been determined and the effect of substrate availability has not been assessed. We therefore studied the kinetic carbon isotope effect in cultures of Thermoanaerobacter kivui grown at 55 °C. The fractionation factor in HCO₃⁻ buffered medium was ca. 15‰ more negative than that in PO₄³⁻ buffered medium. To test whether the difference was caused by the initial substrate ratio of H₂ and total inorganic carbon (TIC; 0.5 in HCO₃⁻ vs. 4.0 in PO₄³⁻ buffered medium), T. kivui was grown in either [3-(N-morpholino) propanesulfonic acid, MOPS] buffered or PO₄³⁻ buffered media with different HCO₃⁻ concentration. Indeed, the fractionation factor became more negative with increasing HCO₃⁻ concentration and decreasing H₂/TIC ratio. While pH had only a small effect, the fractionation was generally more negative in MOPS buffered than in phosphate buffered media, indicating that the buffer system also affected fractionation. Collectively, the results show that substrate availability and other environmental factors affect the magnitude of isotope fractionation during acetate production by chemolithotrophic homoacetogenesis.     

Methodological comparison for quantitative analysis of fossil and recently derived carbon in mine soils with high content of aliphatic kerogen

In mine soil, quantification of soil organic carbon (OC) derived recently from biomass decomposition is complicated by the presence of fossil (geogenic) C derived from coal, oil shale, or similar material in the overburden. The only reliable method for such measurement is ¹⁴C analysis (i.e. radiocarbon dating) using instrumentation such as accelerator mass spectrometry, which is too expensive for routine laboratory analysis. We tested two previously used and two new methods for recent C quantification and compared them with ¹⁴C AMS radiocarbon dating as a reference using a set of soil samples (n = 14) from Sokolov, Czech Republic: (i) ¹³C isotope ratio composition, (ii) cross polarization magic angle spinning ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (CPMAS ¹³C NMR) spectroscopy, (iii) near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) coupled with partial least squares regression and (iv) Rock–Eval pyrolysis. Conventional methods for OC determination (dry combustion, wet dichromate oxidation, loss-on-ignition) were also compared to quantify any bias connected with their use. All the methods provided acceptable recent carbon estimates in the presence of mostly aliphatic fossil C from kerogen. However, the most accurate predictions were obtained with two approaches using Rock–Eval pyrolysis parameters as predictors, namely (i) S₂ curve components and (ii) oxygen index (OI). The S₂ curve approach is based on the lower thermal stability of recent vs. fossil organic matter. The OI approach corresponded well with ¹³C NMR spectra, which showed that samples rich in recent C were richer in carboxyl C and O-alkyl C. These two methods showed the greatest potential as routine methods for recent C quantification.